SalN

SP500 spx spy

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
This is my best estimate. While we could possibly already be in the C wave down and finishing up on a minor wave 2....I am thinking that the FED may continue to do the same as before and prop the market up into the FOMC meeting on March 15th. This is just a guess. If that is the case then perhaps we can reach near the 2800 level again before starting a 5 wave drop . GL
Comment: I don't think we will be making the big drop that I was thinking earlier. I think we need 5 waves up for the 5th. We took care of the smaller 4th wave drop ....didn't feel that small did it. (understand that the higher we go, the bigger the points drop will be...It may seem big....but it is the percentage that you have to look at).
Comment: Assuming we get back up to the 2800 range ...look where the .618% happens to fall. Typical wave 2? We will see.

Comment: This is looking like a very good possibility right now. Here on the daily chart, if we are still in a large 4th wave then we would still have to complete the c wave down. A 100% move equal to the labeled (a) drop from February would put this down at the long term trend line. So I am looking for a couple more days of choppy to slightly up movement to the .618% retracement and then a sub wave 5 down. Could be a very nice vix move.
Comment: IT is hard to tell if we already completed the wave 4 yesterday or not. Todays drop may be the start of the move down. We will see if the move back up tomorrow can give us any clues. I suspect that we still have time for this wave 4 and am shooting for the green box before jumping in to the vix.
Comment: sp500 on the 15 minute chart
This is how I see it at this point. I sure hope I am right because that will be a great VIX play. Hope this helps. At least keep an eye out for this pattern to play out.
Comment: Ignore that blue arrow pointing up. I accidentally left that there
Comment: SO I bought into the VIX late in the day at the yellow oval and am anticipating this pattern to play out. It turned down right after I bought and hopefully this gives me 15 - 20% to finish the B wave zig zag.
Comment: the 5 minute chart
This is what I was seeing today and the reason why I bought the VIX. Hope I am correct.
Comment: Re-do ....on this 5 minute count...I revisited it just now and I think on the very short term my wave count is incorrect. Ill just post it and you can compare it to the one above.

Comment: Sold my tvix and am about to buy into ugaz. Every time I switch to the one hour chart I just don’t think this is the final move down for the S&P 500 So instead of being greedy I think I decided to just take a very nice profit today. As far as natural gas I think perhaps around 1130 or so we will have bottomed for what I believe is a subwave 2 down. Natural gas just now stopped at 2.65 but I think it could get down to 2.4 to 2.35 which would be a .618 retracement. Gl on your trades.
Comment: deeper than expected but oh well. Lets see if this plays out. If so then we could still have a larger c wave down about a week or two away.
To me this looks like the sub wave c of the zig zag b wave.
Are you expecting a nice bouncing back before the final larger c wave down?
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SalN meson1983
@meson1983, yes. I am still expecting a bounce. It may have started at the end of the day. It appears to me that we may be in a running flat pattern. Except that it is not right side up but upside down. We shall see how price moves over the next couple days.
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Nice charts, the market has been following it so far. Do you think the green box ~2680 is the target to start short spx?
Thanks
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SalN meson1983
@meson1983, you know. I bought into the vix just before the drop today. I will update but I think we are getting a stretched out b wave. So A up. Then need a zig zag down. So a short term drop over the two days or so to complete the B wave. Then I am still expecting the C wave up to the green box area. It just might take a little longer than I thought. We will see how price moves tomorrow
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@SalN, thanks for the note. Market will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. I will wait for the C wave to reach green box and start shorting.
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WILL BE WATCHING IT TOO. THANKS FOR THE UPDATES.
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Thanks. I'm watching for this same trade and appreciate the 2nd set of eyes.
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great call my friend
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