Recently the market's expectation for the Fed Funds Rate peaking around 5% and then coming down at the end of Q4 2023 changed, with the market now seeing rates going to 5.5%. Many investors/analysts are discussing bond yields heading to 6% and staying higher for longer. However, is that going to happen? What is sentiment telling us right now? What is data...
• Nasdaq rebounds but bond markets continue to signal “risk off” • Stronger US data further boost hawkish Fed bets • More rate hikes and longer contractionary monetary policy should be bad for stocks The Nasdaq bounced off its earlier lows along with the global market after the US cash open. But with bond yields breaking further higher, there is a risk we could...
Higher yields may cause a bigger correction on DXY, as yields can be still looking for wave 5 by Elliott wave theory. Yields higher, USD strong, stocks down. Risk-off flows may not be over just yet if yields are in fifth wave. However, when yields will make new high and then top after 5th, thats when DXY can complete B/2 rally, with a lower high, when focus will...
The Australian economy has had a few of soft data points this week which, whilst not detrimental to the economy, will be duly noted by the RBA as they seek to cool the economy without completely breaking it (and ponder a pause in rate hikes). Yesterday we found inflation was 'only' 7.4% y/y, compared to 8.1% expected and 8.4% prior - and GDP was soft at 0.5%...
Apple may have just given us the first daily topping signal. It closed below key support which leaves it extremely vulnerable to more downside. This leading stock will take the markets much lower if it breaks down. Daily secondary lower close is on watch to solidify this trend change in apple.
Inflation is plateauing and likely to end flat in 2023, so what will that impact the markets? Though inflation peaked at 9% last year and has been declining to 6.4%, CPI seems to be plateauing and may close flat in 2023, but this is not good news at all. Why? Because the Fed wanted to see the CPI or inflation coming down to 2% in a sustained manner. Studying...
Lumber has been decimated over the last 3 weeks. With housing data coming out tomorrow along with PCE. Is this weak lumber chart signaling a continuation of yield strength moving up? Does the market interpret the housing data as negative? One thing is for sure interest rates should make a move tomorrow off of the data sets.
The markets are at an inflection point. The resolve of the bulls is likely going to be tested very soon. If the SPY loses this support level it could open up the doors to another 5-7% down.
JPY - ⑊⑊ Channel JPY Still within this channel / Pennant pattern - a break to either direction. Break above H: 131.360 expect 133 areas Break below L: 127.000 expect 125 areas It's clean set up but don't forget to use your own trade plan Trade Journal
Discussing all the major indices. Market signals and some latest earnings. SPY, QQQ, DXY. Yields, Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas,
CPI release today spiked yields but tech stocks brushed it off. Will the divergence between bond & stocks play out in favor for stocks? We disucss the SPY, QQQ, Yields, DXY, Gold, Natural gas, Oil, Bitcoin, Tesla, Nvidia.
This chart uses my Yield/FX indicator to show divergences from the NASDAQ futures (NQ) from the indicator, and thus weakness/strength in the yield/FX calculation compared to the market. Much like the use of a normal RSI/MACD analysis, divergence from the indicators trend to the indice can be used as a reversal indication signal.
We discuss all the major indices and markets. SPY QQQ DXY Yields Gold Bitcoin Inflation
Zoom out and in Oct US 10 Year yields hit a supply level from Dec 2018 which started that big rally, we rejected hard from that in Oct. Now heading into resistance on shorter timeframes that started the other two major equities bottoms. If this rejects here which I think it can that will keep the rally continuing.
The DXY is on watch for an hourly breakout. This is coming on the back of China inflationary numbers. 2.1% YOY inflation 0.8% MOM inflation. The Month over month came in slightly hotter than expected which could be signaling maybe a hotter US CPI next week. The China Reopening may be the cause of this.
Disney had a nice rally. Its the rally we have been waiting for. Finally hitting and fulfilling our upside target we are now accumulating a swing short on Disney. The level was hit in the post market session and has pulled off the highs nicely. We telegraphed this trade to our subscribers and were already in the money.
Gold is forming a picture perfect Bear Flag. If this pattern breaks and triggers we have 2 downside targets. The importance of analyzing this pattern is Gold encompasses much of the macro landscape in its price action. If Gold is acting bearishly based off this pattern it could be foreshadowing a dollar strengthening. It could also foreshadow perhaps a...
Nvidia just put in a reversal signal on the Daily chart as it hit major resistance. This semiconductor has been a powerhouse mover and has single handily been lifting the Semis sector higher. Now that this stock may show some near term sell pressure we could see the sector as a whole pullback. The only thing that Im being mindful of when it comes to NVDA is...