The 3 Month Bill is currently breaking down and backtesting a Rising Wedge after Bearishly Diverging at some extreme highs while the DXY has also broken below a long term trend line and is backtesting the S/R Zone and Moving Averages as Resistance. I have expectations that both of them will crash majorly in the coming weeks to months.
🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 6 Month #yield is NOW HIGHER than when #silvergate #bank collapsed! #interestrates can stay above 5% for extended periods of time, see charts, BUT the end result has NEVER been good for #stocks 1Yr struggles @ 5% but has been higher than 6% HOWEVER 10Yr TVC:TNX is DIFFERENT! This has been on a long downtrend until 2022! #bonds
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 05/18 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on...
Here is my road map for TLT... T-Bonds This will have significant ramifications across many correlated markets. Think ES, DXY, Gold etc... I believe we close to embarking on a C wave move up to the opposing upper channel line. This could take on a variety of shapes/slopes. Time will tell. The bigger move ahead is down... although the move ahead will be worth...
The 10 Year Yield has been trying to hold this B point level as Support for the longest time but everytime it tries to bounce it gets pushed right back down and in the most recent try we saw it come up to test the moving averages while it Bearishly Diverged and began a Death Cross. If we can get a serious BAMM Breakdown from here it coulkd go down all the way to...
The US10Y is trading inside a Channel Down ever since its market peak on October 21st. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 54.601, MACD = 0.300, ADX = 17.030) giving a mixed tone to the price action but based on the December-January Lows we can see the the Channel Down has one last dip to make before it bottoms and rebounds on the medium term. We will wait for...
The S&P500 is diverging from the TLT ETF. We have seen this happen many times over the course of 2021, 2022, 2023. Each time this happened, stocks ended up playing catch up to the downside. As yields and bonds typically react first to the incoming macro data, stocks seem to always get the memo last. Is this time different? Can stocks rally as bonds fall?
The 2 year yield saw one of its biggest divergences from the Fed Fund rate during the banking collapse. Now that the banks have settled the 2 year yield is closing the distance on the Fed Fund rate. Recapturing the daily 200 MA is bullish for the short term yields. This move up in yields could be signaling inflation starting to uptick as the economy & labour...
the 20 year yields has also recaptured all of the key daily moving averages. The yield charts on the weekly and monthly chart look ridiculously strong.
The long end yields have been climbing recently and many stock market participants are not recognizing this. The long end yields market may be signaling to us that inflation is going to be entrenched longer than what mainstream experts are calling for. On a technical basis the 30 year has now recaptured all the key daily moving averages and looks primed to head...
I'm testing this correlation and looking at the bounce-up for the 10-year yields To buy indices and sell gold, let's see :) Let me hear from you..
In this update we review the recent price action in #TLT and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
After the Non-farm payroll event last week, which saw 236,000 jobs added through March, it is clear that the job market is still creating many jobs compared to pre-COVID levels. However, the market has been experiencing some short-squeezing from yields to the dollar. The reason for this short-squeezing can be attributed to the mispricing between Fed fund futures,...
HD has broken support but has not completely broken down yet. HD bulls need to recapture the orange trendline on a weekly close or else the bearish trend will break the 200 Weekly MA.
When the XLU outperforms the broad market, you better be taking note as an investor or trader. What does it mean when Utilities outperform the S&P500? The better question to ask is why do people buy Utilities? We have informed our members of this important signal and why its critical to understand this price action. A hint, most investors buy Utilities for...
The US10Y is trading inside a Channel Down on the 1D timeframe with the 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 46.172, MACD = -0.046, ADX = 31.478). With the 1D RSI coming off an accumulation that we've seen on the December and January bottoms, we expect the price to rise and approach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci. Our TP = 3.750. ## If you like our free content follow...
Bear diamond or reverse abcd. looking for 3.15-3.26 >3.66 we continue to the upside
AVB has a death cross that is approaching. This pattern still favor's a near term bounce but will likely resume its longer term downtrend once buy the dippers are exhausted. This is a trend that is not your friend.