The yield market is going absolutely bonkers tonight in the futures. What is the bond market telling us? likely inflation is entrenched. If the 2 year yield closes at or above the Fed Fund Rate before we hear from Powell expect the fed to do a surprise rate hike or remain extremely hawkish. This will no be good for stocks if this is the case.
Last time we saw the bullish moving average cross of the 7MA & the 590 MA we saw a superb rally over 2.5months. This time we are seeing a bearish cross of the same 2 moving averages. Could this replicate the move to the downside? Don't say we didn't caution you!
The S&P500 is on the verge of breaking down very hard. If we reject at the neckline tomorrow that is bearish. If we close above the neckline it is bullish. Either way a big move should occur once we know where we close. After a hotter than expected CPI, tomorrows PPI will be telling. If we get a hot PPI and hot Initial Jobless claims number expect...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/07 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Wed. 09/06: "In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that...
US10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow. But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation....
The Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher. I previously said I would repost this chart after the split...
us10year yields are ready structly to go down wait for the confirmation and go for it
The Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher.
Silver, after confirming Partial-Rise, has also formed 3 Falling Peaks and looks to be preparing to drop back below the bottom end of the range at 18 dollars. When it does this, it will enter a Butterfly BAMM Wave Structure that ends at the 1.272-1.618 Fibonacci Extensions. As a result of this new price action, I am lowering my price target to $6.61-$0.21 from my...
Going to bring this up AGAIN. Short term #yields have been stagnant for some time now. Most are trading within a VERY TIGHT RANGE. 3Month - 1Year yield has been relatively flat. The 2Yr had nice bump but is struggling to go over 5%. HOWEVER, we pointed this out some time ago, the 10YR has BEEN PUMPING! TVC:TNX
Gold closed bid and as an inside day. Stops hunts could be the theme ahead of the Jackson Hole event on Friday.
The DXY after catching a rally off a 4-Hour Bullish Butterfly, has reached my price target of $103, and if it gets above that zone, then I think the DXY will have plenty of room to make multi-decade highs due to The High Interest Rates, Tightening Credit Conditions, and The Deflation that is now being priced into the US Bond Market. If things go as expected...
In the ever-evolving landscape of global economics, precious metals like silver, often serve as key indicators and safe havens. This week, we'll explore the factors making silver an interesting prospect in today's market. Current Macroeconomic Indicators: The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates a slight increase in the US for July, registering at...
Edited the graph from Apollo a bit. Red arrow is when most treasury #yields were hitting new highs. Blue arrow is current time. Chart is 2Yr #Bonds. TVC:TNX was putting in a lower low at the Red arrow BUT it is higher then before at the moment, Blue arrow. Graph shows how #bankruptcy filings began increasing late last year, slowed during #interestrates...
The TLT has broken down an Ascending Broadening Wedge and given us one Bearish Confirmation back test; now we are looking for a second lower high within the range of the breakdown to truly get convicted on the move. However, for the time being, I do think this chart should be watched, as I have a suspicion that a lot of the shorter- and midterm bond yields are...
Money that has been parked at the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility due to the attractively high interest rates the Fed has set for money parked there has been on a steady decline since late 2022, and recently, this year we confirmed a breakdown of a Bearish Dragon, which led to a BAMM move down to complete a Harmonic M-shape. This then represented an influx of...
$TNX is approaching historical resistance... expecting trend resumiption once local top is in...
The 3 & 6Month #yield look similar. The 3M looks just a tad better. The 1 & 2Y ear look very similar RECENTLY. However, the 1Yr is higher than the #BankingCrisis highs. The 10Y TVC:TNX gave a lot back but it's @ support here. Could have some sort of bounce here. But the most interesting chart is of the TVC:DXY US #Dollar. It looks like it wants to bounce...