During the previous period investors had been pretty confident that the Fed might cut interest rates in May, however, the latest published inflation data for January made them rethink expectations. Namely, as January inflation came higher than expected, the reaction of the Treasury yields was imminent one to the upside. This move was additionally supported by the...
The US 10-year Treasury yield is currently encountering significant resistance at the levels of 4.335 and 4.36, marked by peaks observed in 2022 and August 2023. This resistance zone also aligns with the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. There are indications that the market is exerting considerable pressure at this juncture: price action is...
Market priced in rate cuts for later this year based on the December Dot Plot, but you can see that the market has started to price that back out because of CPI and PPI numbers. PCE release on Feb 29th, and Fed meeting in March with a new Dot Plot.
The Fed once again f'ed up by showing rate cuts in their Dot Plot, we'll see if they screw up again. Appears that...
Throughout the week, rates has been predominantly bearish until a break in market structure occurred on Wed 7th Feb 24, 9:00AM, sweeping 6th Feb 24 - 15:00PM sellside before swiftly repricing higher, targeting the prior highs @ 4.169% and rallying up to where we are today.
Studying price action throughout this week, it can be observed that a liquidity void has...
Good Morning Update!!!!!!!
The real #economy is NOT represented by #equities or other public investments.
NYSE:JPM CEO has been vocal on what has been happening but this is his most dire warning in some time. Personally, am shocked this gets air play.
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#yield pumping a bit after "hotter" #inflation than expected reported.
2 things we've been saying for...
I don't think anyone is expecting this, but I think we're setup for yields to hit new highs this year.
The chart indicates yields are breaking out to the upside again, and this move could be a strong one.
I think we're setting up to see a new high in yields by November topping somewhere between 5.35%-6.40%.
Let's see if it plays out.
Track record of tracking the SG10Y yields in giving heads up to the S&P500 or US market direction has been quite uncanny...
This time, the technical outlook for the SG10Y is suggesting a breakout, and in doing so, should see market volatility to the downside.
MACD is suggesting a potential breakout, as is a recent close to the high and breaking the Fibonacci...
Small banks account for about 70% of #commercialrealestate.
Small #banks are considered those with assets less than $10B.
We've been bearish CRE for a long time. We believe that this sector will likely not get better anytime soon.
#interestrates are still holding fairly strong. They are at banking crisis levels or higher.
TVC:TNX
During the previous week there has not been significant news published for the current state of the US economy, so the Treasury yields remained relatively stable, moving within a short range. The US Labor department revised its data for the inflation in December from 0.3% down to 0.2%, but the US Treasuries did not react much to this news. One of the reasons might...
I will start forecasting full years in advance
and provide updates from there finally understand how the bond markets works
dont be fooled folk 2024 nasdaq is crashing market is overbought the recovery was too quick
easy come easy go and only the informed are preparing their shorts
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Current state of the short and long term #Yield.
The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher.
10Yr vs 30Yr
The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but.......
The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still...
Uptrend has commenced and we have barely begun. Generally inflation has 3 waves, and we have had our first. Rates are only up from here. Next stop is 10% ish and a 618 retrace.
Wishing for 5% to be terminal rate was a joke.
Hi Trader!
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against...
