Since the beginning of this year, until last week, the markets were certain that inflation is on the down-path and that the Fed might cut interest rates somewhere in May this year. However, the February inflation data made the markets rethink their initial assumptions. The inflation seems to be more persistent than initially estimated, in which sense, the rate...
4.329% - 4.354% is unfinished business! A healthy retracement to 4.200% is not ruled out and would be considered as 'healthy' as price action would still be in a premium. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure -...
The 20 year Bond Yields has been in a channel since 12/2023. On the weekly, it has hit resistance twice and bounced off. We are approaching a third attempt to break through. Iff it does, whhen it does, its' going to 6%.
Us rates is in up pressure... for moment its upward in direction to higher rates not down.... lets wait next weeks!
This week was a waterfall. Next week will be the week of short seller payback! A continuation of yields trading @ CE; 4.046%, even sweeping Sellside liquidity @ 4.038% is still a possibility but for the past 4 days, the sentiment is more weighted to the downside rather than the upside, with the lowest displacement NWOG being my last line of defence @...
The SG10Y Bond Yields spiked and got back into the range. Then it spiked further today attempting to breakout from the Gann Fan trendline. MACD somewhat supportive but not yet crossed over. An early indication of an imminent retracement (indicated within the range). Any further and stronger break would suggest a bigger correction incoming; IMHO, overdue.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target...
Not many folks are looking for this as everyone seems to be calling for bonds to rally but I think there is a pretty good chance we get a flat 2's-10's sometime during Q2 Historically not a great omen for stonks when the curve disinverts
The 20 Yr Bond Yield will likely move to 4.7% by March 22nd, 2024 based on its' 12/2023 and 04/2020 Channels. Bought into TMV on 3/11/24 based on this reversal on Friday. Looks like this will be a 15% gain once TMV hits resistance next week.
The 10-year yield is in a huge symmetrical triangle. Break out of it would trigger a massive move in rates. Rates are moving up due to the very hot inflation report. Let's see if will it be rejected or if this will be the end of the bull market for now!
Sometimes a drawing can speak better than words, or at least present an idea in a better and more efficient way. This project involves projected tendencies and forces that might affect the price, represented with the curves as attractors and influencers with their respective arrows pointing the direction of the potential simulated pressure applied to the...
It's reasonably well appreciated that the biggest component of the dollar index DXY is the euro. Therefore when trying toanalyse the future direction of the Dollar one needs to consider what is happening to the spread between yields in the two main economic areas (US and Germany as a proxy). If we look at US10Y-DE10Y historically we can see, as might be expected,...
This is a simple setup resulted from the analysis, processing, and simulation, of several future scenarios that might unfold. The rectangles are projected support and resistance zones where the price might hit a bump, create a turnaround, or halt it's actions into a consolidation zone, before continuing on its initial path. The small orange one marks a potential...
Someone requested this one, and yes, as all crypto currencies show amazing heights, all will correct in due time, and corrections are always severe as much as the upside showed. This one will return likely to the 2.65 area whilst repecting 2.41 GANN support.
During the previous week the market was pricing released job data in the US. Increasing unemployment rate boosted investors expectations that the Fed's rate cuts are round the corner. Also it has been confirmed through the Fed Chair Powell`s testimony to the Senate, with wording “at some point” during the course of this year. Although, initially, it was expected...
How long do we have before the next crash? How many months until we've reached the market top? Hopefully not yet! My estimate is a top in June 2024, when the FED starts cutting rates.