US10Y Dump All Year. Stocks, Crypto pump for 3 years.US government bonds are going to crash. This means nations, banks, mega corporations will pull their money out and back into the stock market. The tech money will go back into coins like truebit and future coin ftrLongby bitcoinfundmanager446
Big Four Macro: Bonds Part 2In last weekโs macro outlook post we covered the outlook for intermediate and long bond yields. The analysis concluded that the long term technical trend has changed from lower to flat/neutral but that more work (i.e., a higher low) is needed to definitively turn the macro trend higher. That piece is linked below in the related idea section. 10 Year Yield Weekly: After peaking at 4.34% in October, 10s have declined into the first confluence of support. The confluence is defined by 2 channel bottoms, the fibonocci retracement of the last wave higher, an internal trend line (not shown and slightly violated) across the 3.04% - 3.25% highs and the last violated pivot @ 3.25%. Additionally, the move from 4.34% has covered about 100 basis points, consistent with the last two primary corrections. This is the markets first solid opportunity since the October high to test meaningful support. Either, it bases here for a move back toward the 4.34% October high or fails and cuts much deeper, perhaps as far as the .382% retracement (2.86%) of the entire structural bear market. If the market does successfully base, the nature of the move should offer significant insight into the balance of the year. Early in my career I was obsessed with Elliott. But after years of effort, I wasn't able to develop it as a reliable trading methodology. However, those years led me to believe that markets do often move in three and five wave sequences. But if I can't immediately identify an obvious primary sequence with a quick glance, then a count isn't reliable enough to use. Even then it is only useful only for context and then only in conjunction with a broader understanding of price volume relationships and trend. Bond yields appear to have completed a clear five wave move from the March 2020 low to the October 2022 high, leaving them vulnerable to correction and suggesting an intermediate high that should hold for several months. 10 Year Ultra Futures Daily: When a weekly chart is resting at an important juncture, I like to drop down to the daily chart in order to assess the likely hood of it holding or failing. For this view, in order to assess volume I switch from yield to price. Ultras are into a zone of strong daily perspective resistance defined by the confluence of the .50% retracement of the 122-21 - 113-15 decline, the December 2022 high, volume profile, and the June 2022 pivot low @ 121-19. It is also taking more volume to produce gains, suggesting that supply is becoming more aggressive as the market moves higher. Three drives to a high (see linked related ideas) and the failed breakout above the 122-18 pivot all increase the odds of the resistance holding. A show of weakness that destroys the uptrend would strongly suggest a completed test and set the stage for a broader pullback. Seasonal Tendency (US30Y Futures): Bond prices have very strong seasonal tendencies. They tend to set important intermediate highs early in the year before declining into mid-year. Conclusions: The monthly/macro trend has changed from lower to neutral, but yields need to make a higher low before definitively making the case that the new trend is higher. The weekly chart is testing a solid support confluence. The outcome of that test should help define the markets behavior over the next 3-4 months. The weekly correction that began at the October high does not look complete. The daily perspective rally that began last October is faltering. Signs of supply are developing and reliable seasonal tendencies are turning negative (yield up/price down). When combined with a strong confluence of weekly support there is a good chance that yields will begin to move back toward their October highs. The characteristics of that rally will be important in determining if it is simply a test of the October high that eventually leads to a much deeper retracement (2.50% or so) or the beginning of a new leg higher. A failure to hold the support confluence would strongly suggest that a much larger retracement of the two year old bear market was unfolding. Targets for that retracement would fall in the 2.25-.50% zone. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur. Editors' picksby CMT_Association1717190
UK 10 Year Bonds 3D short targetThe chart points show mostly bearish signals as the price peaks and starts breaking down through several major levels across 3 timeframes. The short target is set at a level where the next largest support levels overlap on all 3 timeframes and the short is set at the extrapolated max 3D resistance.Shortby cosmic_indicators2
yield ratio vs bond priceillustrating the overshoots from yield ratio formula (1/rate) when compared to bond price formula 100 - rateby wisely381
GLOBAL MARKET BOND YIELDS SIGNALS BULLISH STRENGTHThe gloabal financial markets have a direct correlation with each other The interest rates are no exception to this rule. Notice that the TVC:US10Y forms an SMT(Smart Money Divergence) with the rest of the Bond yields TVC:US10Y takes out the Sellside Liqudity while TVC:GB10Y and TVC:DE10Y did not take out their respective lows. This signal Huge accumulation of longs on German and Britain's Bond Yields This should melt Treasury Bonds and Sink the Stock MarketsLongby ifeanyichukwu_E224
Are US10Y Bond Yields really gonna plummet?With USD recently becoming a less attractive asset to hold following the recent dump and bubble burst, US10Y bond yields are not demonstrating a very appealing picture as well. Technical aspects are as follow: 1- Daily TF Cup and Handle reversal pattern 2- Uptrend lower trendline Broken 3- It has made a first Lower High and Lower Low and still pushing lower with small frame corrections King USD is in a bad shape guys with continuous loss of investor interest. Plan your trades accordingly, Best of Luck and Happy Trading :-)Shortby Syed-Usman-Ali2
us10y Compared to goldHello friends, I hope you are well Well, I want to see this chart together US 10-year Treasuries have reached a support since they started to fall Gold followed an upward rally And now gold has reached an important resistance, and in my opinion, the price of gold will drop very soon, and in the next week, I think the price of gold will decrease. And on the other hand, the US 10-year bond has started an upward rally And from a technical point of view, we see that it has an upward path This is just my personal opinion Good luckby farzad_abdollahzade116
US10YYields can explode from here as earning on US equities disappoint on earnings and job losses set in job lossesby Mike_SnD3
How will markets react to rising yield and dollar?Moving averages can be applied to many things, from stocks and currencies to fitness measures and crop harvests. Here, the candles show US10Y is finding support off the 200ma, after making a significant decline. The 20ma (blue) and 50ma (dark blue) will indicate the yield's next trend as they separate. The green line graph shows a serious decline in the U.S. dollar. As the orange short-term trendline shows, it may be ready to move a little higher. The yield and dollar may not rise back to the highs, but they definitely can move up for a bounce in the near term. If the recent relationship continues, then this would create selling pressure for global and tech stocks while giving another lift to defensive sectors. Here's a little-known fact to watch out for: Starting in January, a new formula is being used to calculate CPI (consumer price index) data. The first release of this will be in February and the numbers are expected to increase relative to Dec. data. The new calculation will update spending weights annually (using one year's data) instead of biennally. Thus be alert to the possibility that markets react negatively to a high Jan. CPI, as the majority now think prices are coming down. On the flip side if CPI is in-line or lower even with the new formula, then markets will get quite a lift. www.federalregister.govby OptionsRising224
US 10 YR YIELD - ObservationThe US10YR has now retraced to the 200dma and close to the yearly pivot point.by Trader-Dan3
US 2/10 yield spread in a for a massive reversalUS 2/10 yield spread approaching macro support. TA bottom might be slowly forming too (need confirmation) Expecting the spread to reach 0 before the summer while the rest will be history buckle upby EdHeenok1
Looking for #us10y to find Higher LowsLooking for #us10y to find Higher Lows and continuation to the upside as new highs were made. #us10y moves opposite to the #crypto market. Longby awakensoul_3692
bombs awayAre #gold shorts paying attention to anything? All support is lost on #us10y, and now even closing below weekly EMA30 (shown in blue)!Shortby DollarCostAverage2
Looking to Short 10's On a breakdown on the daily, ill be shorting 10 year bonds. High on all the higher timeframes. Shortby Chad_McDeid11
S&P500 may be on the verge of a mega rally based on the US02YThe chart represents the US02Y on the 1W time-frame against the S&P500 index (green trend-line). The phase that the US02Y has entered is similar to that in entered in December 1994. As you see shortly after a Golden Cross, it made a Lower High on the RSI, flashing a Bearish Divergence, while the MACD Double Topped. This is exactly the same sequence of events in the exact same order since the June 2022 Golden Cross. The US02Y fall of December 1994 practically started S&P's mega rally of mid-late 90s that led to the 2000 Dotcom Bubble. If history is repeated, instead of a continuation of the Bear Market that most expect, S&P500 my be on the verge of a new multi-year Bull Cycle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ๐, FOLLOW โ , SHARE ๐ and COMMENT โ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐by TradingShot6639
WILD VOLATILITY IN JAPAN - YIELDS FALLJGB's have collapsed from the highs. Falling over 22% tonight. If this weakness in the Japan yield market continues we should see the DXY eat that up. this is a weekly chart of the JP10Y. It demonstrates a multi year trendline of resistance for Japanese debt. This chart data only goes back to 2006 however we still have to respect a major trend until proven otherwise. Perhaps if this reversal completes on the weekly & monthly timeframe, Japan economy could be signaling some risk if a deflationary event were to happen rapidly. Since BOJ owns most of the Japanese debt (bonds) analyzing this market can be tricky since its theoretically rigged since the buyer is the seller & the seller is the buyer.Shortby Trading-Capital3
US yields looking for another move upLooks to have formed +ve divergence on RSI. FED are NOT going to pause/pivot in coming weeks. Data still ok as a whole and until much softer yields have to go/stay higher for longer than people think. Longby WVS_Stockscreen111
US02Y : Market speaks out!It seems that the front end of the curve is starting to 'speak out'. Unlike in the past, it is NOT moving up despite the recent 50% rate hike. This is significant because whenever the FRONT starts acting up, we can expect something BIG and SIGNIFICANT coming up. As we can see, a BIG portion of market participants disagree with the recent Fed decision. In fact they are now betting against the Fed. This is a lot of money involved here. We are not talking day traders like you and me; or even big speculators. The Bond Market involves much bigger players and their opinion matters. There may be two reasons. One is that they see the recent 'slow down' in rate hike might soon turn into a freeze and pivot, with a 'soft landing'. The second is more important. They might sense that the economy is nearing a RECESSION when everything grinds to a halt. Some are forecasting a deep and long lasting recession. For this, we look at the US10Y and see how much it will drop. But whatever it is, 2023 will not be a good year. Three days ago, I heard someone talking that GOLD will reach $3,000 in 2023! And so says Saxo Bank. Perhaps you should be aware what will happen just by looking at Bond yield which is saying 'future growth looks 'bleak'. Gold, Oil and stocks will be at RISK with the coming recession. Whether it is a BIG one is still debatable. But if the Fed insist on hiking again, chances are it is going to be a BIG one. Money supply, at least in the US, is FALLING. If you look at M2 and do a simple extrapolation, to get gold at $3,000, there needs to be a really HUGE increase in MONEY SUPPLY (note that inflation do not determine Gold price. It has always been money supply. Whether money supply leads to inflation is another thing. But if market participants think that inflation is going to high in the future, would they continue to drive yield lower?) . USDJPY would be a nice to trade. It is just a matter of looking for the right time/place. EURUSD is a bit risky with the ongoing war in Ukraine. Have a nice weekend. P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.Shortby i_am_siewUpdated 445
Long US 5s30 Yield CurveThe US Government Treasury 5Y vs the US Government Treasury 30Y is now back above inverted levels and will continue this path as the FOMC hawkish rhetoric and major policy error will drive the US into a recession this year. It is in our opinion that this trade will move from inversion to +100bp as the FOMC pivots, equity markets falter and the FOMC stops their QT and stops Mortgage Back Securities and US Treasury roll offs. In a fiat fractional reserve system the current set up requires continued fiat printing or QE in order to keep asset prices higher. Also inflation is transitory and stemmed from the fiscal direct payment stimulus post Covid. We will see wage pressure come down, debt service go up and a tighter economic environment. All of this is telegraphed already in leading economic indicators. We believe this trade has a better than 5 to 1 payoff structure, risking -25bp to make 125bp. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS- Trading is risky and may involve leverage, Magnelibra or any of its affiliates are not suggesting in any way to guarantee any profits or against any future losses. Trading should be done by well capitalized and individuals well versed in quantifying risk. Longby magnelibra3
Martin Luther King Jr. Day - Market AnalysisKey events: US โ Martin Luther King, Jr. Day UK โ BoE Gov Bailey Speaks The recently released CPI is prompting investors to question the Fed's plans to raise the overnight rate above 5%. The market doesn't seem to care, and after this data coincides with the forecast, yields are falling across the curve. Thus, 2-year Treasury yields have fallen to their lowest level since October, with room to fall substantially. If the Fed really does intend to raise rates that much and maintain tight financial conditions, then it appears that the market is not listening to the central bank and not paying attention to what it wants. This only suggests that the Fed's forward guidance is no longer working. The Fed will have to dig into its toolbox to convince the market that it is serious. The central bank may have to talk about accelerating the pace of balance sheet reduction or outright sales of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The market indicates that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end, with the belief that the central bank will be forced to cut rates as soon as 2023. However, the Fed continues to insist that it plans to raise rates above 5% and leave them high and financial conditions tight for a long time. The 2-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level since early October. This is the first weakening in months. Apparently, the rate cut is now embedded in the quotes of not only the federal funds rate futures market. As a consequence, the Fed will be forced to use balance sheet talk as a last resort to ensure that rates remain elevated and the dollar remains strong enough to prevent a stronger-than-acceptable Fed easing of financial conditions. The market, on the other hand, is trying to figure out how much pressure it can put on the Fed to maintain tight financial conditions. If the central bank is serious, sooner or later it will try to fight back. Otherwise, the Fed will lose control of the public discourse and won't be able to tell the markets what direction it thinks they should go. Talk of a higher overnight rate is no longer having the desired effect, so the next option for the Fed is balance. If it doesn't use that option, the markets will take it as a signal that the Fed is okay with easing financial conditions and thus gives the markets permission to continue the rally.by FOREXN1Updated 7710
US2YR SFP M1With the 2YR printing a M1 SFP we can expect a sharp reversal on yields shortly - this may be confluence for the bias of a FED pivot and return to risk.Shortby FoxMetaCapital2
Big Four Macro Outlook: 10 Year RatesI begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. Since by profession I am a rates/credit portfolio manager and trader, I always start with rates. Granted, macro doesnโt typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but having a framework for markets and for recognizing change is important. Last yearโs thoughts, including extensive fundamental background, are linked. In this piece I will recap my views on the monthly chart and follow next week with my view on the weekly chart and conclusions. A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield = a bull market in bonds. Over the last four decades bonds had consistently and reliably made lower highs and lower lows. The entire bull market was defined by a broad declining channel (A-B, C-D). The A-B downtrend line represented the "stride of demand" or the zone where buyers consistently emerged and the C-D line represented the "overbought line" or the zone where supply consistently emerged. From 2012 forward there were growing signs that the long downtrend was aging. Four things stood out. 1) The repeated failure to push to the oversold line (C-D). 2) The flattening out of the decline where each push to a new yield low only covered around 100 bps. 3) The 2018 spike to 3.25% that weakened the primary A-B downtrend. 4) In March of 2020 bonds pushed to the area around the center of the channel, and again failed to push into the overbought line (C-D), suggesting that demand was tiring. These very visible change of behavior strongly suggested that the 40 year downtrend was in danger. Now, the clear break and acceleration above the A-B downtrend has moved the long trend from bullish to neutral. While itโs likely that the move above November 2018 pivot @ 3.25% coupled with the changes of behavior mark the beginning of a long term bear market, a higher low (perhaps forming over the first half of 2023) is needed to complete/confirm that change. Note the additional changes in behavior. The 400 bps move from 0.33% to 4.33% represents the single largest bearish move since the inception of the bull market in September 1981 and the current MACD oscillator level has far exceeded the levels that marked yield highs over the course of the entire bull market. Triple Screen: Daily, Weekly, Monthly: There are several key fundamental points around rates: -The defining macro characteristic of the 40 year bull market has been the continual fall in the inflation rate. If that is changing, the secular bond trend is likely to also change. -If the trend in inflation is changing, the negative correlation between bonds and equity that drives 60/40 allocation and risk parity investing is likely to flip and become positive. In other words, bonds and equity would, outside of periods of panic, rise and fall together destroying the diversification benefit. This has been the historical norm and I expect that the market will gradually move in that direction. -The caveat being this: Quantitative easing removed the value proposition from bonds, when equities began to decline this year bonds COULDN'T provide a safe havenโฆ they were already far too expensive, particularly in context of a Federal Reserve that was aggressively tightening monetary policy, that is no longer the case. Bonds, while still expensive can again provide a tactical hedge should risk assets weaken dramatically. -At first glance, this seems at odds with the with the change in correlation discussed above, but it is a difference between the secular tide verses the intermediate wave. -Most substantive bond rallies have been the result of a crisis that created a flight to quality. In an economy that is overly financialized and levered, rising rates often break the weakest link in the economic chain, creating a new crisis and a subsequent flight to quality rally. While so far, there is little evidence of a systemic crisis, the lagged effect of the rapid increase in rates in an overly financialized system demands attention. Bottom Line: While there is still more work to be done to confirm the trend change, I believe the bond trend is finally changing as the world moves from the deflationary backdrop of the last several decades to an inflationary backdrop. I will be a much better seller of rallies and bearish technical setups in the weekly/intermediate perspective. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur. Editors' picksby CMT_Association6060625
US2YR Bond Yield Topping OutUS 2 Year Yield seems to have confirmed a reversal on the weekly which in turn seems to have given stocks and crypto some cause to rally. Too early to say yet if it will be sustained. Lets see if we get a continuation.by TheTradersBias2