An inversion between the 2yr UST yield and the Federal Funds effective rate normally does not exceed -1%. When that happens, it's an indication the bond market is not getting the reaction from the Fed that it "expects" (or maybe it is a "want"). Inversions of this degree have normally been unkind to the equity market, but that is clearly not the case here in...
EU and US spreads are exploding higher as markets start pricing in the spreads between what is required and what is committed (Fed only so far). For Historical reference, price has always followed interest rate spreads
Just an image I use to see where we are relative to history. Well the market is leaning so far towards easing that market rates (defined here as an average of 1,2,3 years are trading at historic discounts to the fed funds rate. Core and measured CPI there for you too. Enjoy, AMK
Please note that these are my premature ideas. I don't claim any certain things.
I just evaluating the Technical Charts, which are important indicators to me for unknown upcoming global events.
I added my comments on the charts with text boxes. I am sure that you can also understand what is going on.
Hello Everyone i want share my idea about US economic indicator.
US economic is very strong what we hear but when i am looking that that price action tell me they are falling.
This picture is simple, if my technical analysis will work here we have some strong RSI divergence, if indicator will drop below 50 LVL we will see some little trend change at lower...
We have our first indication of a top in bond yields with price overlapping and losing it's impulsivity to the upside. However, a top is not confirmed until yields breach 3.40% which is our wave 4 of one lesser degree.
To do so should confirm the beginning of our wave 2 decline into the target box, and over time.
In the first three installments we described an exercise utilizing the long term momentum in asset classes, the relationship between those classes and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the United States, in order to anticipate the business cycle and markets. Those posts are linked below.
Since...
Here is my analysis of the 30Y treasury Bond. In fact , for the past weeks , this market has been trading lower. And my point is that it will continue trading lower until we reach the sellside liqudity level. That means that we could continue to witness bullish prices on indices due the invese correlation between the Bond market and the indices market
It was final time for the Fed to align with the market. At the latest FOMC meeting, this was the case, considering that rhetoric about potential rate increases was not at all in the spotlight of Powell's speech, but clearly slowdown of inflation and that FOMC members are perceiving Fed`s rates at 4.6% as of the end of 2024. This was a clear signal for markets that...
The real U.S yield curve (Blue) suggests that the U.S. Dollar (Yellow) may weaken over the next 12 months.
The main beneficially will be Japanese YEN who haven't moved monetary policy for over 42 years. Currency pairs are relative to move so I see the Yen appreciating, followed by the EUR.
After 4 years of upward movement and reaching the ceiling of 5% yeilds.
Considering the momentum of the current downward trend from the 5% resistance, as long as the wave counting is considered correct and not violated, all financial markets, especially bitcoin, gold, and the US stock market for about the next year (2024) may be ascending
IF the bonds break the 5%...
Based on my analysis the US10Y Bonds has been in a bearish direction. Price broke the bullish uptrend towards this last quarter of 2023. I predict that it can go lower than 4%. I don't see it going back up close to 5% anytime soon. The Feds meeting this week will most likely have it go higher just to finish out the retrace between 4.2% and 4.3%. We are also in the...
