Jobs data posted during the previous week surprised the markets in a negative way. It is sort of a paradox, considering that usually strong job market is good for the economy of any country. However, at the current situation, this strong jobs market sends a signal of a potential increase in inflation figures, which might impact the Fed's decision to cut interest...
Traders, as we navigate through the second and third quarters, understanding the potential movements of the US 10-year yield TVC:US10Y becomes increasingly crucial. Join me as we analyze the factors shaping the bond market and anticipate the trajectory of the 10-year yield in the coming months. I'm excited to share a comprehensive outlook, encompassing a...
US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle Ascending triangle detected on US10Y The exponential moving averages remain possible targets Monitor Ichimoku levels The ROC ( Rate of Change) is in a positif territory. Bonds can rise to a double top Stay careful Good trades to all
Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 6
From the ending of 2023, Yields have been trickling to the upside, regaining the losses made throughout the last quarter of Q4. With this weeks candle attacking buyside liquidity with a strong bullish closure, manipulation to the downside, ideally respecting the short term lows @ 4.183%. 4.532% lowest displacement of the order block is in the cards. My...
US Government Bond 10 YR Yield X Right Prices for April, 2024: 4.420% 4.428% 4.439% 4.457% 4.466% 4.467% 4.487% 4.493% 4.505%
What a difference 11 hours makes. The 1 & 2 Yr #Yield are STILL under resistance & are weakening. 10 & 30 Yr completely reversed once markets opened. But this tends to be normal, pretty frequent. This is why waiting for a CLOSE is of utmost importance. IF we CLOSE here, last night's thinking is NO MORE and the best plan of action is to WAIT. TVC:TNX
Let's keep looking at #InterestRates. Gives us an idea of what the Fed may do. The 1 & 2 Year are still under their RESISTANCE level. Struggling a bit, but not breaking down. Trend is still there, weak though. 10 Yr looks like it wants to break the resistance zone. 30 YR looks like it's gone. Does not look like it wants to retrace at the moment. #FederalReserve TVC:TNX
Copper miners smelling more yield curve un-inversion... #copper #silver #gold #uranium #crudeoil
Yields are currently in EW 4th wave correction, this should bottom by the end of 2Q for a sharp rally back to new highs end of year. 2025 will be the year of bear with a crash in all risk assets. Likely bottom near the golden fib @~2.5%. Risk assets also should follow this path along hand in hand. So bullish stocks until EOY after a brief correction in 2Q.
20 year Bond Yield reversed in its' 3 month Rising Channel and is now rising to 4.77% due to inflation data in the manufacturing report. Will it break out this time? If so its' going above 5% again.
I wam showing another (weekly t/f) version of the chart I published weeks ago on the driver for USD bs the Euro - yield spread between US10Y and German10Y. There is NOTHING bearish about this chart. Price (spread) breaking higher. Indicators as positive as you like. Dollar higher.
looks like we found the turn frens. lets geaux. hopefully youre an OG with fib extensions :)
Bond yields recent uptick is crashing markets and also causing the TLT to drop. Bonds holders have sent their message to the Fed. Ball 🏀 now is the the FED's court
When the yield curve (US10Y-US02Y) started going back up and uninverted, that's when markets reached their TOPS and started going back down. This happened in 2000 and 2007. I feel like this will happen again in 2024. The yield curve went from -1% to -0.3% in the last year. It is going back up. Will SPX top in 2024 and go down for the next 1-3 years?
Tesla weekly trend shows weakness as short-term traders hammer price down. Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com) CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor...
Seeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change. Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again. Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh...
Relative equal highs around the 4.329% level is prone for smart money to liquidate those who placed their stops above recent highs. Stagnent throughout the week but the overall sentiment for yields over the short-term is bearish as a LH was formed, piling shorts to place their stops above recent short term highs as well as yields being bearish 2 weeks in a row,...