The PBOC has repeatedly fixed its daily reference rate for the onshore yuan (CNY) at levels below estimates. But measures from the PBoC to support the Yuan has not been effective in changing the trend amidst a slew of economic stress (property slump, rising unemployment, deflation fears, etc) that may drive the offshore yuan (CNH) to historic lows.
The latest...
The trajectory of the USDCNH is a burning question as it approaches the highs witnessed in November 2022.
Recent weeks have seen China's economic robustness wane, and as a result, attempts by its central bank to ease the situation have led to a weakening of the CNH. This dynamic becomes clearer when considering the interest rate differential between China and...
This video recording, a brief history of the China Yuan through these 5 stages.
My main aim is to derive the fair value of the present Yuan and into the future.
Reference for trading in CME USD/Offshore RMB (CNH) Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.0001 per USD increment = 10 CNH
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult...
CME: USD/Offshore RMB ( CME:CNH1! )
Even though the Chinese Yuan is not a component in the US Dollar Index, Dollar-Yuan exchange rate generally tracks the dollar index. If dollar gains in value, most foreign currencies depreciate against it, yuan included. When dollar is weakened, the opposite holds true. Foreign currencies appreciate relative to dollar.
...
The most recent Caixin Manufacturing PMI dipped below 50, landing back in contraction territory after two prints above the 50-mark. As the world's top exporter, China is acutely sensitive to fluctuations in both exports and manufacturing numbers. Historically, we've seen periods of Yuan devaluation during times of contracting Manufacturing PMI and exports as...
US Dollar vs Yuan or US Dollar vs Offshore Yuan, technically they are establishing divergence. Above chart is my projection in time to come.
When Dollar vs Yuan moves lower, this means we are seeing a weaker Dollar and a stronger Yuan. See the following link for its video version.
The Chinese yuan, also known as RMB, is the official currency of China. It is...
CME: Offshore RMB ( CME:CNH1! ), Micro RMB ( CME_MINI:MNH1! )
On April 5th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the latest U.S. global trade data. For the first two months of 2023, total export and import were $328.9 and $489.7 billion, respectively. U.S. international trade balance was $160.9 billion in deficit.
Export growth was very strong, at 9.5%...
CME: USD/RMB Futures ( CME:CNH1! )
US-China relations are arguably the most challenging bilateral relations in the 21st century. It has been in a free fall since the 2018 trade conflict. The competition has intensified and spread to investment, technology, among other arenas since then.
On November 14th, 2022, President Biden met with President Xi during the...
CME: USD/Offshore RMB ( CME:CNH1! ), COMEX: Copper Futures ( COMEX:HG1! )
Two weeks ago, China abruptly overhauled its strict Covid policy that had been in place for nearly three years. Lockdowns, health codes, massive testing, and domestic travel restrictions are no longer enforced. “The world changed overnight,” said one of my friends.
From Zero-COVID to “Lying...
For readers who have been following us right from our first ever TradingView idea, you’ll recall our first ever trade idea on long USDCNH. It’s been a fun 5 months writing and sharing our thoughts with the community.
Much has happened since April, but two critical things stayed the same. The US Federal Reserve remains hawkish, raising rates, while the PBoC...
Since the Joe Biden election, the TRUMP2024 token has been on a tear.
From this chart, we can see the markets are lagging a lot, taking time to react to events : It took nearly 6 months of Joe Biden presidency for the markets to realize the potential of the TRUMP2024 token vs the SP500 under Joe Biden's policy.
For the future, we expect TRUMP2024 to continue...
CNH1!
Birds of different feathers are likely not to flock together! As policy divergence continues between the US Fed (Hawkish) vs the PBoC (Dovish), we expect the Dollar to strengthen against the RMB on a macro level.
On the technical side, we see a bullish RSI divergence (prices making lower lows while RSI making higher lows), suggesting that momentum is...
china is devaluing again. when a country devalues (likely due to copper/input prices) it imports inflation (weakens currency) and exports deflation (strengthens competitors currency). looks like everyone may be wrong about inflation in a massive way if this baby really squeezes.
what does it means. this is extremmmmmely bad. a demand shock heard around the currency world.
monetarily the pboc is at their limits... internal inflation is looking incredible unstable in the mainland..
lets see if china is a reflection of what may come to the us?
7.0 is the line in the Sand. All risk assets watching for the main question on all our minds.
Inflation or deflation. I haven't been this excited since team Edward vs team Jacob. Obvious long oil I'm team inflation. In order to see this play out gyna needs to see their currency vs the dollar below the 7.0 line
