Last Week : Last week Market opened under the VAL of this 5368 - 5207 HTF Range with our Sellers being in Value/VAL and Cost Basis/Supports at the lower Edge. We spent few days consolidating between VAL and the Edge with a move on Tuesday that first failed to hold under 5230s pre market and then afternoon push over VAL trapping the shorts under Value. Wednesday...
overall market comment This week we found out how high the squeeze could get and markets made new all time highs. PPI was bad but market rallied anyway and bears gave up on CPI numbers. We are at the highs where we saw a bigger sell-off in April and it’s more reasonable to look for shorting the double tops, than betting on another melt-up for the biggest asset...
On Friday ES did beautiful retracement with SMT at Smart Money Reversal with YM. A lot of confluences much as seasonality, orderflow and structure.
With 4 consecutive weeks of straight bullish price action, what would it take to slow down this bullet train? I mean, it could go up forever but markets move in waves of fractals and retracement is perfectly healthy in a macro bull market.
The S&P 500 is my favorite market to trade however my strategy struggles when price enters All Time Highs by design. I tend to try and hold positions into ATH's and beyond but this recent uptrend has proven too aggressive for my entries (See attached ideas). Last weeks close is a very subtle clue about institutional intention to buy this market. My intuition says...
Last week, we were expecting a dip and rip. That is exactly what we got! However we dipped a bit less than expected, hence why I never alerted a big buy signal. Missed the easy move to new all time highs. On Friday, we saw end of day strength, creating a few gaps of interest below. Lower time frame areas of interest around 5317 and 5310 looking for support. If...
Long, trap for buyers coming soon. Overall market been oversold for years when will we dig deeper is the questions for me every quarter... a broken clock has to be right at least once ??
CME_MINI:ES1! Broke out a 1 month flag on May 6th (in white). This pushed us to all time highs and now the spot buyers want to get over for next week is the 3 month megaphone resistance at 5349 area (in green). Get above there and buyers can push for 5374. If sellers want to dip us this upcoming week, it can start on the fail of 5302. which will target 5274...
Putting on my bear hat this morning and reflecting on how difficult the move up from October 2022 low has been to interpret, from an Elliott Wave perspective. If you were trying to convince yourself of a major market top and completed five-wave impulse, I think this is how you'd have to do it. Wave ((5)) ends of being an expanding ending diagonal off October 2022...
Buyers return to the S&P 500 and Friday's market action. The challenge now will be the expectation of follow through to the upside on Monday. Friday's price action implies that Thursday and Friday's market movement was buyers selling to take profits.
There is an old, seemingly wise saying, that says "time in the market beats timing the market!" This works for people that do not want to do the work... to study repeatable patterns. Throughout the bull market of 2024 (yes, the market is in a bull market) I have been waiting for and been asked by followers "is THIS the pullback to go long?" Generally, the...
Another choppy and flat day for the challenge account. I think i did ok today but that lotto i bought should have been a call. Don't know what i was thinking buying a put after VX just broke below support. Oh well i should have been done trading at that point anyway. Next week will be better.
ES1! showing signs of heavy resistance to price movement, AKA liquidity in this rarified air. The daily ranges for the previous two trading days will be monumental in the market deciding its direction, as there is a lot of interest packing in at these levels. 5287 to 5349 are the outer limits with 5318-to-5323 also being important inflection points as this plays...
At this point you gotta figure the daily is gonna go overbought before this stupidity ends, lol. My 3hr indicators should go oversold Monday, guess I gotta go long.
Going over the morning session looking for clues to how we could have traded today better. going into the weekend we really want to reflect & update our trading plan. eliminate what isnt working and double down on what is working. keep working hard. another week almost in the books. goal is to be green end of the day. not become a millionaire.
- 3 Failed tests on 4h timeframe - Price breakdown (hourly bear flag) - Price targets: 5226.75, 5153.75, trailing stop - Stop Loss: 5350 (break into ATHs)
- Strong rejection of a key level - Bearish structure formed at top of range - Possible exhausted bull run?
ES failed to break above high of day earlier. OPEX typically leads to chop, but I'll be watching to see if we can get any momentum tonthe downside.