**SP500:** New all time high at 5347. This week's forecast is for the price to descend and match the EMA55 level.
The S&P 500 index can be bought in two specified support areas in two steps and profit from it up to the specified targets
Waiting to see if we get the level to risk off, Waiting for some real US market Momentum Monday likely to lack follow through until US open
Tomorrow, May 20, 2024, normally, the NQ is bulish. The 15M +FVG is located in the discount, supported with a 15M +OB
Bias is Bullish. Price swept the External LQ, then went for the Internal LQ. Price swept the old high, but didn't displace through it. With the formation of a +FVG, and price pulling back to tag it Friday, we may see price trade through the new high. Ideally, price will form FVGs to give us clear indications as to its intentions. Thank you for viewing! Leave...
Last Week : Last week Market opened under the VAL of this 5368 - 5207 HTF Range with our Sellers being in Value/VAL and Cost Basis/Supports at the lower Edge. We spent few days consolidating between VAL and the Edge with a move on Tuesday that first failed to hold under 5230s pre market and then afternoon push over VAL trapping the shorts under Value. Wednesday...
overall market comment This week we found out how high the squeeze could get and markets made new all time highs. PPI was bad but market rallied anyway and bears gave up on CPI numbers. We are at the highs where we saw a bigger sell-off in April and it’s more reasonable to look for shorting the double tops, than betting on another melt-up for the biggest asset...
On Friday ES did beautiful retracement with SMT at Smart Money Reversal with YM. A lot of confluences much as seasonality, orderflow and structure.
With 4 consecutive weeks of straight bullish price action, what would it take to slow down this bullet train? I mean, it could go up forever but markets move in waves of fractals and retracement is perfectly healthy in a macro bull market.
The S&P 500 is my favorite market to trade however my strategy struggles when price enters All Time Highs by design. I tend to try and hold positions into ATH's and beyond but this recent uptrend has proven too aggressive for my entries (See attached ideas). Last weeks close is a very subtle clue about institutional intention to buy this market. My intuition says...
Last week, we were expecting a dip and rip. That is exactly what we got! However we dipped a bit less than expected, hence why I never alerted a big buy signal. Missed the easy move to new all time highs. On Friday, we saw end of day strength, creating a few gaps of interest below. Lower time frame areas of interest around 5317 and 5310 looking for support. If...
Long, trap for buyers coming soon. Overall market been oversold for years when will we dig deeper is the questions for me every quarter... a broken clock has to be right at least once ??
CME_MINI:ES1! Broke out a 1 month flag on May 6th (in white). This pushed us to all time highs and now the spot buyers want to get over for next week is the 3 month megaphone resistance at 5349 area (in green). Get above there and buyers can push for 5374. If sellers want to dip us this upcoming week, it can start on the fail of 5302. which will target 5274...
Putting on my bear hat this morning and reflecting on how difficult the move up from October 2022 low has been to interpret, from an Elliott Wave perspective. If you were trying to convince yourself of a major market top and completed five-wave impulse, I think this is how you'd have to do it. Wave ((5)) ends of being an expanding ending diagonal off October 2022...
Buyers return to the S&P 500 and Friday's market action. The challenge now will be the expectation of follow through to the upside on Monday. Friday's price action implies that Thursday and Friday's market movement was buyers selling to take profits.
There is an old, seemingly wise saying, that says "time in the market beats timing the market!" This works for people that do not want to do the work... to study repeatable patterns. Throughout the bull market of 2024 (yes, the market is in a bull market) I have been waiting for and been asked by followers "is THIS the pullback to go long?" Generally, the...
Another choppy and flat day for the challenge account. I think i did ok today but that lotto i bought should have been a call. Don't know what i was thinking buying a put after VX just broke below support. Oh well i should have been done trading at that point anyway. Next week will be better.
ES1! showing signs of heavy resistance to price movement, AKA liquidity in this rarified air. The daily ranges for the previous two trading days will be monumental in the market deciding its direction, as there is a lot of interest packing in at these levels. 5287 to 5349 are the outer limits with 5318-to-5323 also being important inflection points as this plays...