Follow through to the upside on ThursdayThe expectation for Thursdays price action in the S&P 500 is for movement to the upside but not a large move based on the structure shown on Wednesday.02:19by DanGramza3
General TW ExplanationGeneral TW Explanation. Tomorrow we will trade RT on opening. Download any web whatever to share screen. Let´s rock & Rol24:14by MacDadddy0
ES UpdateRSI and MFI bounces as expected, chart pattern looks like a backtest than a rally. I cashed out earlier today, not sure which way the market gaps tomorrow, but I expect MFI to hit overbought so have an exit plan if you do short term trading.by hungry_hippoUpdated 9
Price Action REview ES morning Session 4-3-24Going over the price action this morning looking for clues and trying to listen to what the market is telling us. Long03:16by BobbyS8130
ES UpdateRSI and MFI both hit oversold, flipped my puts. Didn't pick the best stocks to short so I made some money but not a lot. THought about going long but I'll wait until this afternoon. Got other stuff to do, plus I'm always a bit too early anyways, lol.by hungry_hippoUpdated 338
wave 4 begin soon ?Inside market sentiment : check out insider tracking of big tech company . there are almost 0 buying activity all of them is sell their share including big smart money like Warren Buffett Charting : Momentum indicators such as MACD ROC is show bearish divergence Market Breadth indicators such as Mcclellan show divergence that mean amount of stock price begin not to going up many company as previous Wave analysis is show that price is on up trend wave 3 but it seem to weak Cycle analysis such as Hurst cycle trend to tell us that we already past peek of this sub cycle so I ok to bet with RR=2 from that all information Shortby tofinse0
Volume Voids Fill QuicklyFollowing up with a previously posted idea, the index reclaimed the prior day high and the key daily pivot. What do we have above? A volume void - Which tend to "fill" quickly, meaning price and exhibit momentum through those areas Can be incredible setups if you are well positioned Longby OpinicusTrades0
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after pullback in a strong uptrend. Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery, earnings season, potential FOMC pivot implications) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5245-5242 (major), 5235, 5232 (major), 5219, 5210-12 (major), 5203 (major), 5190, 5183, 5175-77 (major), 5171, 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5259, 5267-69 (major), 5274, 5282-84 (major), 5293, 5300(major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5329-33 (major), 5342, 5345 (major), 5352, 5357 (major), 5364, 5370 (major), 5380-82 (major), 5389, 5400 (major) Trading Strategy: Support & Resistance: Focus on potential bounces at support levels, notably 5242-5245 (triangle backtest) and the major support zones. Look for short opportunities at resistance levels, especially 5267-69 and 5282-84. Knife Catch Mode: If sharp declines continue, be extremely cautious with longs, prioritizing major support levels only and following your rigorous knife-catching strategy. Long Opportunities: Exercise patience if considering longs. Bids at 5242-45, with more confidence after a failed breakdown and reclaim, are possible. Consider potential adds above 5255. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting within the strong uptrend carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Bull Case Triangle Backtest Hold: A successful hold of the 5242-45 triangle backtest, particularly if 5255 can be reclaimed, would signal potential for a rebound. This could lead to retests of 5267, a basing period, followed by a test of 5282-84, and potentially a move back toward 5300-07. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5232 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is likely around 5219. News: Top Stories for April 3rd, 2024 Fed Policy Outlook: Fed's report highlights financial sector vulnerabilities. Markets expect a potential first interest rate cut in June, with an April cut possible. Recent inflation data has moderated expectations for rapid easing of monetary policy. Stock Market Performance: S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in March, ending with its best first quarter since 2019. Index gained 3.2% in March and is up 10.6% year-to-date. April historically strong for the S&P 500, investors remain optimistic. Economic Indicators: Fourth-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% indicates resilience to rate hikes. Bond market predicts the Fed will hold rates near-term, with potential cuts by June. Global Developments: China's service economy posts 15th consecutive month of growth, signaling recovery. Cooling Eurozone inflation opens the door for potential rate cuts by the ECB. Corporate News: Agilent Technologies highlights new cancer research and diagnostics solutions. Endeavor Group Holdings acquired by Silver Lake in a $13 billion deal, the largest in the media and entertainment sector. Investment Considerations: Earnings season may bring caution despite overall bullish market sentiment. Potential pullbacks would be normal within the larger uptrend. Climate Risk & Regulation: The U.S. Federal Reserve has reportedly blocked a proposal to focus global banking regulations on climate risk. Cryptocurrency & Blockchain: Interest in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology remains high, with discussions on top investment opportunities and sector-wide adoption. Remember: The market is reacting to a key support test within a strong uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.by spytradingpro0
ES OVernight Price Action rEview 4-3-24Going over the price action from overnight. looking for clues and trying to listen to the market for whats its trying to tell us. 03:14by BobbyS8130
S&P 500 (ES) Day Trading Analysis With Volume Profile 📊On S&P 500 (ES) it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5287. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. The downtrend combined with the strong volume area along with the strong S/R area from the past are my main reasons for this short trade. Happy trading, Daleby Trader_Dale115
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.24 - 03.29Last Week : Last week we opened below 5227 - 07.50 HTF Edge but weren't able to hold under it, we got some selling from Edge area back down towards VAH but not strong enough to get inside or break it, for any continuation under we needed to get through it which didn't happen. Once we got back over the Edge on Tuesday and this time held above, we were able to put together a cost basis there and once we took out VAL of New Range above VAH became our Target. We didn't hit it same day but got to it after hours which we know has less volume so its easier to move the market. We ended up tagging top of VAH but no strong buyers came in to take us over and that's when we started building the supply to back fill back towards the Mean to end the week with a break back under 5295.50 - 90.50. This Week : So far going into this week we know we have sellers over VAH and unless strong buyers come in, our current ones don't need to pay over Value. It's also Month end and this is a perfect spot for size longs to be taking profits and closing things up, BUT look at the small distribution ranges we had rest of the week which tells us we don't have size sellers to give us big moves from here so we will most likely need to wait for Supply to build up if we want to see continuation under 95.50 - 90.50. For now the Mean can act as support as shorts will be trying to cover at cheaper prices for the supply that falls under 5300. This might be a tricky week again and ranges could be small while we are building Supply, we can see some tighter range balances around this top of Mean/VAH area and need to be careful with longs because we do have sellers now and long trades might fizzle out quicker than everyone wants as shorts don't have to pay higher prices while we have longs unloading into the buying to close out the month. If we can't make a push or accept over VAH and build up enough supply we could see a move through the Mean towards VAL at some point, just have to be careful forcing it early as we may need more time to test around VAH before we have the supply to do that. IF we do run out of selling at VAH and accept over 5322.50 we could see a run at next Key Resistance area towards the Edge but for that we would need to build up under VAH and inside it as well. 5310 - 06 area can still be tested and maybe even over it at some point before we get a better failure to see a move to push us further trough the mean. Quicker trades without expecting too much follow through would be best bet until we see that we will be ready to move. Levels to watch : Supply is over 5310.50 - 06.50 Which makes it possible resistance or to look for look above and fail area. If we get through and don't fail we have 5324.75 - 20.75 as VAH top and 5341 - 36 as next Key Resistance. 5295.50 - 90.25 is current Key Area but we can't really say its our Support or Resistance just yet even though we closed at/under it on Friday, this area can act as smaller Mean, but once we have enough Supply over it and can get through we can watch lower targets for Continuation 5279.25 - 75.25 is first spot to hit and if enough supply VAL area at 5264.75 - 60.75 would be a good spot to visit as well. 5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for anything under VAL. It is a shorter Holiday week so we have to be careful and see if we get any moves out of this area at all or will we spend the whole week trading around Mean/VAH area if that will be the case 5310.50 - 06.50 // 5295.50 - 90.25 +/- is our current shelf and can see trading within/around until we will be ready to move. by HollowMnUpdated 3
Wednesday rest dayAfter the break lower in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, the expectation for Wednesday is a rest day as the market waits for additional job information in the latter part of the week.02:56by DanGramza2
S&P500 TA: Return To The Mean? Bearish Div? PT 2000-2200?With individual names blowing up left & right, a new covid varient & margin debt at all time highs, could this finally be the top of one of the greatest bull markets in history?Shortby CryptoGuy234Updated 118
Global Futures4/2/24 Global Futures: S&P 500 ES1! Nasdaq 100 NQ1! Dow Jones YM1! Euro Stoxx 50 FESX1! FTSE 100 Z1! China A50 CN1! Nikkei 225 NKD1! DAX FDAX1!by Options3601
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and I hope you are well. Today bears actually showed up and bulls began the profit taking. Very refreshing to see some two sided trading and not making more ath. I do think for all indexes the selling was strong enough to get another leg down, which then is mostly a third leg or W5 and markets are or will then trade at bigger support prices, trend lines and daily 20emas. sp500 Yesterday I gave 5230 as a measured move target and low of the day was 5235, hope you made some. bull case: Bulls are one more red day away from giving up control of the market and we go into neutral territory. 20ema was hit today but market closed above (currently around 5246). Bulls will probably get to the 1h 20ema and a retest of the breakout below the bull trend line (view chart). It’s already almost there and the reaction there is important. For bulls to retake full control, they need to break out of the red bear channel and trade above the 1h 20ema again, currently at 5270. bear case: Market has now broken all bull trend lines and once we have a daily close below the 20ema, bulls are probably done. Retest of the breakout and upper bear channel line will probably happen in the Globex session and I expect market to hover around open/close price from today before EU session tomorrow. Bears want a third leg down which would bring us probably to around 5210/5200 and the chance that we break that on the first try is very low. Below 5200 is 5185ish next. Invalid above 5290. short term: Sideways to down - bulls want back above 5290/5300 and bears want to stay inside the bear channel for a third leg down to around 5210/5200. medium-long term: Below 5200 I keep my bearish thesis as drawn (weekly outlook). above we can go much higher before down. we could also range above 5000 for many months without going nowhere. I expect earnings to become weak in this quarter (Q1 - Banks begin reporting next week) but could take next one as well. —unchanged trade of the day: Short at upper bear channel line and 1h 20ema. Perfect signal to short and was good for 61 points.Shortby priceactiontds0
DaY Price Action REview ES 4-2-24Going over the price action for April 2. going back and in hindsight looking for better entries & exits. what could we have done better and what did we do that was good. great day for learning and growing. 03:26by BobbyS8130
FOMC Move 100% Retraced - Now Into VPOC The index gapped lower this morning (following yesterday's bear engulfing bar) and price showed continuation off the open, before finding a bid versus the 5237 LOI. This was a 100% retrace of the FOMC move and the pre-FOMC vPOC. RTH daily candles now show hammers… The main watch for tomorrow will be whether buyers can show follow-through above today’s high.by OpinicusTrades0
ES1! afternoon updatePrimary bull count has us on wave 4 of iii of (iii) of V. Anticipated bottom 5116.25-5199.25 before move back up towards 5450-5550. Primary bear count has top in, (b) of IV complete, (c) would be impulse with bottom expected 2979-3300.by discobiscuit0
Larger Time Frame Moves as a Bias for Smaller Timeframe TradesWelcome to our instructional guide where we delve into the fascinating realm of recognizing patterns in trading and leveraging them to your advantage. The core idea is simple yet powerful: patterns repeat themselves, and by understanding them, you can enhance your trading success. Our comprehensive lesson plan is designed to equip you with the skills necessary to identify various chart types tailored for different trading strategies, whether you're into Scalping or Swing Trading. Moreover, we'll explore the strategic utilization of diverse indicators to pinpoint precise entry points with high probability outcomes. By establishing predetermined stop-loss levels and setting multiple target numbers, you'll learn how to manage risk effectively while maximizing profits. Throughout this journey, witness firsthand as we demonstrate the process from defining trades in advance to executing them and securing profitable outcomes. Get ready to elevate your trading game with practical insights and actionable strategies.16:38by CFRN2
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, tactical trading within a range, price discovery in the context of a strong uptrend. Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery in a new zone, potential chop) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5294, 5286 (major), 5278-80 (major), 5274, 5267 (major), 5262, 5256, 5249, 5243-46 (major), 5235, 5230, 5225 (major), 5221, 5213-15 (major), 5207, 5203, 5191-95 (major), 5181, 5177, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5150-55 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5300-02 (major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5328 (major), 5337 (major), 5340, 5348, 5353 (major), 5359, 5363-66 (major), 5374, 5379, 5390 (major), 5398, 5403-05 (major), 5413, 5417, 5422, 5426, 5445 (major) Trading Strategy: Tactical Range Trading: The market appears to be in a consolidation range between 5267-5316. Focus on level-to-level trades, taking profits regularly, and adapting quickly to changing price action. Failed Breakout: The failure of the breakout above last week's high suggests a period of range-bound trading or a potential dip before resuming the uptrend. Trade accordingly. Long Opportunities: Exercise caution and consider bids at 5286, with preference for testing 5278-80 support and reclaiming today's low. Partial longs at the 5267 support are an option, with more on a potential reclaim. Below 5262, be more selective with entries, favoring major levels. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting still carries significant risk within the strong uptrend context. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Bull Case Range Trading: ES could consolidate within the 5267-5316 range, building out structure before continuing the upward move towards 5328, 5337, then 5366. Level-to-level trading is key. Direct Move Higher: A decisive hold of 5285 could lead to a direct rally back to 5316, with re-tests of 5300 possible. Longs above 5300 with acceptance would be viable. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5267 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is 5262. News: Top Stories for April 2nd, 2024 Stock Market Gains: Review the positive Q1 performance of global stock markets, focusing on the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and MSCI EAFE. Discuss the bond market's challenges. Cryptocurrency Updates: Explore the anticipation surrounding the Bitcoin Cash halving and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, their historical price impact, and the overall sentiment in the crypto markets. Regulatory Scrutiny: Examine the ongoing investigation of BlackRock and Vanguard over their stakes in American banks and the implications for passive investing regulations. Economic Signals and Monetary Policies: Analyze the strong U.S. manufacturing report, its inflationary implications, and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Discuss China's possible monetary policy expansion. IPO Market and Earnings Outlook: Highlight the upcoming IPOs and the start of the Q1 earnings season. Discuss expectations for financial results and their potential insights into the overall economic outlook. FOMC Meeting: Emphasize the importance of the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential to shed light on the Fed's plans for interest rate cuts. International Economic Trends: Cover Japan's economic recovery, rising interest rates, inflation in South Korea, and Australia's balanced economic risks. Commodity Market Movements: Examine the factors influencing the palm oil market and OPEC+ output policy discussions. Remember: The market is in a range-bound phase within a larger uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.by spytradingpro0
Overnight ES Price action REview 4-2-24Going over the price Action ES trying to listen to what the market is telling us to do. Short02:06by BobbyS8130
A dramatic move is not expectedAfter Monday's action in the S&P 500, a dramatic lower move would not be expected for Tuesday.02:11by DanGramza1
ES - Short 'N' Sweet!Thursday 28th, 15:45pm candle started the shift in market structure to the downside on a short-term basis and with buyside being tested, the hourly sellside is prone to be attacked next @ 5301.50 - 5301 Taking ES one step at a time as there is a chance for the daily buyside located at 5323 to be swept so I will be updating this post throughout the week. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN Shortby LegendSinceUpdated 0