strong rise to 5200It also appears to me from the movement that there will be a strong rise to 5200 You must be aware that the peaks are dangerous It may happen other than what we expect, because the financial markets are not friendly to anyoneLongby DaferAliUpdated 0
ES Weekly Levels (Feb26-Mar1)NQ & ES finished the week green yet again after testing the low of the recent range early in the the shortened trading week for US markets. The NQ closed 1% off its ATH high while the ES finished 0.56% off its ATH. The late week recovery was fueled by another strong earning report from NVDA although big tech showed signs of weakness to closed out the week with most of the Mag 7 closing red on Friday as money rotated back into XLP, XLV & XLB. Earnings season will wind down this week with reports fom some big retailers, Canadian banks & small cap growth names. PCE data is on tap for Thursday and the Fed heads will continue their speaking tour. SUMMARY ES had a weekly gain of 1.60% after trading in a wide range of 160 pts. ES closed firmly above the 2021 high T1 = 1.618 Fib X (5147) T2 = 1.13 Fib X (5231) S1 = 2021 High (5029) S2 = 21 ema (4993) Uptrend remains intact above the upward trendline. Sector rotation last week from XLK, XLC & XLY to XLP, XLB & XLV. Durable Goods & Consumer Confidence on Tues. PCE & Consumer Spending Thru. Manufacturing PMI on Friday. Earnings this week include reports from U, ZM, LOW, M, MARA, CRM, SNOW, CELH, BBY & Canadian banks. Elevated terrorist/war risk due to escalaton of conflicts in the Middle East. RSI 66.84 VIX at 13.74 | 10 year 4.25% by WadeYendall4
Into The Futures | Week Ahead For Feb 25, 2024In my first post in a minute, this idea offers a concise analysis of key futures stock indices and treasury futures for the upcoming week. I look at popular indices like MES, MNW, and MYM, alongside the 10-year and 30-year treasury futures (ZN & ZB). By examining multiple timeframes, the current prices suggest a probable modest decline in stock indices. Remember to always #thinkriskfirst as you navigate the week ahead. Short11:16by RodCasilli10
202409 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. This week was another very strong one for the bulls. Having these kind of climaxes at the top after such a long ongoing trend is often the exhaustive end of it. But all that is just mumbling until bears show up. Bulls continue to pump this higher and that’s just what’s happening right now. All targets have been met and market keeps going because it keeps working. Bears need to generate more selling pressure and trap bulls who bought too high but right now they still can just every dip and make money. sp500 Quote from last week: Last week i drew a two legged (ABC) correction when we traded at 5042 and it was deeper and then higher than anticipated but other than that, a pretty perfect forecast so far. Meaning i still think we are in the second leg down and it will probably hit at least the daily 20ema at around 4970. Low of the week was 4960. That’s is as perfect of a weekly outlook as it get’s. Was i absolutely flabbergasted by the 160 point gain after that? You bet. Can you say i was wrong in my outlook last week? I also wrote short term: down then sideways - probably to below 5000 first and then market decides. given lower targets in the bear case For dax my outlook was completely trash but sp500 i nailed it. Let’s view ahead. bull case: Same for dax, hard to come up with higher targets. Most reasonable thing here would be to look for pullbacks and if they are bought, hop along. BTFD has not stopped working for a long time, even though they got a bit bigger, it was not enough so far. I draw something into the chart in case of measured moves but given so many trend lines we are at and the extreme of this move, i can’t see it but market has the ability to go way way beyond what’s reasonable (looking at you NVIDIA. couple more up days and that stock might be the first 10 trillion $ company and you be sure, you will find humans who will go in front of a camera and say why this stock is reasonably priced based on fundamentals, just like they did in 2000). bear case: Bears need way more to stop the BTFD mania. The market is overbought and everyone knows it, that does not help in structuring good short trades, since this buying could continue. Bears need prices below 4931 to make lower lows, that is pretty far away. Best they can probably get is a trading range at the highs. Their first target is the daily 20ema around 5000 and i expect bulls to buy there again. outlook last week: “down then sideways - probably to below 5000 first and then market decides. given lower targets in the bear case” → Last Sunday we traded 5014 and now we are at 5101. Market hit my target +10 points. That was +44 if you will. short term: sideways is the best bears can hope for. bulls could also just moon this further. if you read this and think: “so this jack is saying it can go up or down?!” yes bro and now come’s the important distinction: i tell you i’m neutral here and wait for the market to show me further price action and evaluate with hopefully a higher certainty the next profitable trade. right now at 5101 is the absolute worst place to enter a trade. tl;dr: wait for more price action. i lean bearish but bears have done nothing late Friday so i wait. medium-long term: same as dax. my thesis had 5100 as invalidation and now i wait for the monthly close firstby priceactiontds0
Where will we go?Are we in a trap region? The month is ending, but the problems are just beginning! Based on the latest analysis, we may indeed be in a trap region. And its long-term objective was achieved in full (1,618 FIB). And gold has not yet lost its 2K level. What a thing, right? If everything is fine, why isn't our "rich" fiat's store of value giving way? I just think that we should keep our eyes open, because things are going too easy, and my motto for a safe victory is: "There is no such thing as a free lunch, if you ate it, someone will have to pay the bill." Do your analysis and good business. Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss. See other graphical analyzes below.by MacD_Bollinger6
Short-term ES tradeThis chart assumes we are in the beginning stages of a Minor 2, and ultimately headed to new highs in the middle term, but not before completing a 3 wave, ((a))((b))((c)) correction to the 4000 region. I have a Micro ((A))((B)) in the books, and that we are working on the ((C)) wave, which may conclude around 4893, before a subminuette b wave retrace back to current levels. Best, Cuz.Shortby CuzDeluxUpdated 1
How to trade correlations with the SP500? ES/SP500/US100 Hello Traders, Welcome back to another market breakdown. Today, I've got an exciting video for you as I dive into the current state of the S&P 500 and explore various strategies based on different market scenarios. Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this video will help you better understand how to navigate the dynamic world of the stock market. Trade safely, Trader Leo 15:17by Leo-btm221
ES1! morning updateIt looks like ES1! is working on a third impulse wave up from October 2023 low. Bullish scenario (green) would have this third wave up complete a full impulse wave off low of 4173.25. Bearish scenario (red) would have this third impulse up be the second impulse of a C wave, with an additional impulse needed to complete the C.by discobiscuit1
ES - Weekly War With Buyers & SellersCME_MINI:ES1! is stuck between a rock and a hard place! From a macro perspective, we have been on a bullish uptrend since the 27th Oct 2023 with daily HH and HL's being formed. Every now and again, a minor retracement is necessary to accumulate more positions to continue to the upside. This week, we have witnessed sell stops being raided however the overall bullish structure is still in full swing, as long as 4936.50 13th Feb bullish engulfing lows is not traded to and through. I do believe we are in for a short term retracement with the likelihood of price action continuing lower a strong possibility, especially with the volatility expected this week. 4998 discount array is an area in price I expect CME_MINI:ES1! to sweep with the possibility of 4983.50 and 4976 attacked by shorts. With that being said, I can also account for the fact that the arrays mentioned could be the very springboard for smart money to accumulate longs and reprice above all time highs, currently sitting at 5066.50. This is the risk to my weekly bearish bias. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN Short13:14by LegendSinceUpdated 0
Rest day may continueThe expected rest day in the S&P 500 on Friday could continue on Monday as the market gets ready for fundamentals coming out during the week. The bias for this market would be a higher close by the end of the week.02:55by DanGramza5
ES UpdateES also overbought on my 3 hrs chart, closed everything. Today is Ponzi Friday, so I don;t plan on shorting anything until EOD. Hard market to short but I might buy a few puts, probably just beer money though. Too risky to go bigby hungry_hippoUpdated 119
Reveries on value and dirty shirts 2024 Roughly 10:30am on Feb 14 2024 ... 4h on left showing interim bull, s1 4980s, macro bear r1 4030s Big picture range on left maps initial balance and 10% vola filter for 12M - posting on 4h tf to provide tracking for interim moves on candles for the year. Indies dont tend to present after chart is published thus current directional read (4h interim bull, macro bear) is current cycle. On the right, larger tf and larger range projections ... 1d bear on interim and macro cycles unless we sustain north of 5034. By no means my opinion that market has "topped." Push north of 5100 feasible even within the current month. Downside cycle to 4820-4730 if s1 on 1d macro @ 4829 is broken. Orange and red boxes are based on 6M and 12M ranges. 12M to the downside shows 3700's feasible within the year, however personal bias on true sup more accurately reflected by s1/ s2 and s3 levels. 4200's would be a little under 20% discount based current ath, and though I have no hesitation in labeling this level and anything below as considerable value, I do so with a few caveats: 1.) I quantify value based on the marginal efficiency of an entry price and a projected range for exit. 2.) I do not believe that making qualitative assessment about individual assets is necessary to be bullish on the market in general. Current inflation issues are neither new, or enigmatic in origin. It's simply the function of 75M people being born between 1946 - 1964, all aggressively competing for limited jobs and assets from the moment they all turned into adults in the mid 1980's. Huge demand for assets, goods and services drove prices higher and higher. Huge supply of working adults, put little pressure on employers to raise wages. In 1986 every boomer was old enough to buy a beer and vote. SPX opened the year @ 212 and minimum wage was $3.35/hr. Its 2024 and current high on SPX for Feb is 5066, minimum wage is $7.25. Even if the birthrate stateside goes down, it won't matter -- the rest of the world (free and otherwise) witnessed the +2000% pump. The American Dream has been globalized, and with it new continents of resolute demand. Am I saying "only up?" No. Im saying when it comes to buyers, the US market is spoiled for choice. Even at its worst, the cleanest dirty shirt still wins. Appreciate the risk. by iSovereignUpdated 227
02/23The market just keep climbing to find new prices, all those white lines are levels that can be important, because they already act like steps in a stairs. right now my plan its to see new levels form, and if we break 5108 see a retest or a new level to open longs, i wouldnt focus right now on shorts due to the high trend that we are in.by SrSovi0
2/23 Friday Trading Plan 📈 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish SPX Outlook for February, 23 2024: Bullish Momentum: The S&P 500 exhibited a bullish trend into January 2024, reaching new highs driven by strong economic indicators and expectations of Federal Reserve rate adjustments. Nevertheless, there are concerns about potential market corrections if earnings growth fails to meet the lofty expectations for 2024 and 2025. Federal Reserve's Influence: The FedWatch tool signals a 53% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in March, underscoring the Federal Reserve's pivotal role in molding market expectations and its extensive economic implications. Earnings Reports Insights: Sectoral Performance: February's earnings disclosures from leading entities in technology, oil, and biotechnology sectors provide a holistic view of various economic segments' health. Companies like Apple, Amazon, and Exxon Mobil are in the limelight. Economic Data Releases: Key Indicators: The emphasis on data such as the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey and the Federal Reserve's R-star estimate mirrors the market's sensitivity towards consumer confidence and interest rate projections. HSBC's Financial Performance: Profit Surge: HSBC's notable profit increase amid high interest rates, despite the headwinds from China's economic deceleration and a significant charge from its stake in the Bank of Communications, illustrates the intricate relationship between global banking performance and macroeconomic factors. Interest Rate Expectations: Market Speculation: The anticipation of nearly 5 rate cuts by the end of 2024 significantly sways investor sentiment, dependent on forthcoming Federal Reserve decisions. However, shifts in these anticipations pose risks to equity and fixed income markets alike. Economic Growth and Inflation: GDP and CPI Dynamics: The U.S.'s unexpected robust GDP growth coupled with a gradual inflation deceleration points towards a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, albeit the comprehensive impact on Federal Reserve policy is yet to be ascertained. Global Economic Conditions: Inflation and Growth Concerns: Persistent inflation and potential adverse economic developments overshadow asset prices, in spite of the recent market rally. The global economic landscape, marked by challenges in China and geopolitical tensions, adds complexity to market prognostications. 📈 Trading Plan for Wednesday: Support Levels to Watch: Immediate supports at 4981 and 4965 serve as short-term defenses against further declines. Upholding these levels may indicate buying opportunities or short-term market steadiness. Resistance Levels to Monitor: Crucial resistances at 4988 and 4996-98 act as pivotal points for market recovery or additional bullish momentum. Overcoming these thresholds could fortify the bullish scenario. Trading Strategy: The current market tone is bearishly inclined, with a possibility for brief recovery endeavors around pivotal resistance levels. Disciplined Approach: Concentrate on disciplined entry and exit strategies within the designated support and resistance zones. Tactical Insights: Prioritize systematic profit-taking and loss-cutting, especially around significant support and resistance levels, to adeptly navigate potential market volatility and leverage discernible trends. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis serves educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.by spytradingpro1
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 2.18 - 2.23Shortened week ahead, lets break down structure and areas of interest to lean on this week. Last Week : We opened the week above VAH and under Key HTF Edge, we knew that this is the area where we can see size sellers step in and an area where size longs could be taking profits which creates different sets of sellers to give more pressure to the lower levels, as mentioned this could be the Edge that will stop our run at least for time being. Market consolidated above VAH, pushed into the Edge, tagged 5066.50 to the tick and failed to take it out which gave a nice sell back into VAH. Tuesday before the data we knew we had Supply trapped above and if Key Support gets taken out we can see a move lower and if we followed down level to level we ended up testing the bottom Edge, taking out one of the weak lows but we only had enough to barely take it and found buying again. By end of the week we ended up back in 5013.75 - 5066.50 Range and Friday we balanced inside under the Key Resistance without tagging it and with a few Key Support tests. This Week : Market closed on Friday inside Key Support with what looked like end of day break but Globex opened and pushed away from Key Support again keeping us inside 5013.75 - 5066.50 Range for now. We have a shorter week coming and question is will we stay consolidating in this Current Range and try to push out of VAH towards the Edge again or will the market stay inside Value with a possible move through the Mean towards VAL. If we end up holding under VAH under 5048.75 - 45.75 // 34-31 areas could bring in weakness once enough supply builds up to break Current Key Support and if that happens we could target move to lower levels towards VAL, we have to be careful looking for too much downside unless Key Levels break and market shows continuation because we could stay balancing inside our Value unless stronger volume comes in. First targets under to watch would be 5001.75 - 97.75 and VAL top at 4988.25 - 84.25 which could find buying to hold us over, if not we have Key Support at 4972 - 67 which we would need to take out for any continuation towards bottom Edge. If we do end up holding this range and can't take out Current Key Support, we can see more balance in Current range again and if enough buying comes in and we can take out upper Resistance areas at 5034-31 we would need to hold over 5041.50 and take out 5048.75 - 45.75 to see another attempt at the upper Edge. We would need to take out and accept over 5066.50 - 60.75 for any more upside from this range and above target would be towards the top of the Edge where we could watch for failure or continuation. Area over 5066.50 - 60.75 is big Resistance for now and if we finally have selling from size longs and shorts don't need to pay over Value too much then we could continue to hold under so need to be careful with any pushes over 34 - 41.50 area as they may not hold unless we get strong buying through them. Levels to Watch : Current Resistance 5034 - 31 // 5048.75 - 45.75 Key Resistance 5066.50 - 60.75 Targets if above 5086.25 - 81 - 77.75 Current Key Support 5019 - 13.75 Targets below 5001.75 - 97.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25 Needs to break for attempt lower Key Support 4972 - 67 Would need to hold under for any continuation towards lower Edge.by HollowMnUpdated 2
Smaller ranges is expected for FridayThe enthusiasm to the upside shown in the S&P 500 on Thursday would not be expected on Friday unless we get very positive fundamentals driving this market higher. A higher close would be expected but not with the same size of movement shown on Thursday.02:24by DanGramza2
SMT with NQ and ESHeavy news on Thursday could propel a move higher towards a new high. This is what i'm framing intra week and the SMT is helping me get in line with this.Longby I_AM_LPTrades0
02/22 Pre market planThe market after the fomc rallied pretty hard yesterday, let see if the buyers want to continue the party, or they want to take profits which can lead to a sell off. Currently the price its in a supply zone 5059 5065, that supply already worked really well, if i see buyers trapped, i would like to play shorts targeting first 5042. above the supply zone there is no levels, so we will need to wait to levels forms or something appears on the Heat map (Level 2)by SrSovi0
2/22 Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral Nvidia's Earnings Impact: Exceptional Performance: Nvidia's Q4 and fiscal 2024 earnings showcase transformative growth in AI and data center sectors. The company's revenue and EPS have significantly exceeded expectations, sending shares soaring and valuing Nvidia at $1.7 trillion. Market Response: The 10% rise in Nvidia shares post-earnings, coupled with a 40% year-to-date surge, underscores the market's bullish outlook on AI-driven growth. Nvidia's forecasts for continued robust demand further buoy investor sentiment. Trading Plan for Thursday: Support Levels to Monitor: Immediate Supports: 4971 and 4965, with major considerations at 4954-56 and 4944-48. These levels represent potential buying opportunities or signify short-term market stabilization. Strategic Supports: 4925 and 4906 for knife-catching long positions, emphasizing caution and the need for systematic profit-taking. Resistance Levels for Potential Rebounds: Key Resistances: 4976-78 and 4989, marking thresholds for market recovery or further bullish momentum. Reclaiming these levels could reinforce the bull case scenario. Tactical Approach: Flexibility Post-Earnings: Nvidia's earnings release necessitates a flexible trading strategy, prepared to adapt to post-announcement volatility and potential traps. Systematic Trading: Focus on disciplined trading around support and resistance zones, with a readiness to capitalize on post-earnings market dynamics. Strategic Insights: Prioritize systematic profit-taking and cautious entry around major support reclaims, navigating potential volatility with a disciplined approach. 🚫 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.by spytradingpro0
ES1/SPX500 BEARSHello Fellow traders, idea of distribution is done at 5th wave, this pop up price today was just retracements on the 5th wave zone. for stoploss clearly the upside of 5th wave. with clear targets below before our future retracements. This is not a financial advice, this is only my view on distribution type. Same with SPX500/SPY/SP500futures charts. Follow for more Weekly longshot trades. becareful use stoploss for better trading!Shortby keno19890
Buyers continue to enter the marketStarting on Wednesday and through the beginning of the Asia session for the S&P 500 buyers have been present. The expectation is for a higher high on Thursday and the positive close.02:45by DanGramza3
ES AH UpdateFutures up on NVDA earnings, it's hard to tell which way these "news" events will take the market, but I did post NQ earlier today. ES also double dipped into oversold with positive MFI divergence, and here we are, lol. Despite the market being in the red most of the day, I kept saying long, because the indicators had already hit oversold. News or no news, I'm not gonna bet against the indicators. Hopefully they started the pump and dump algos, because that's easier trading. There's a chance that the melt up continues, so be careful shorting.by hungry_hippo7