$ES short scalp Looking for a short scalp when we retest 5459.50. 6 ticks at least. Shortby SimpleJackTrading0
Long $ES The only way I’ll touch NYSE:ES long is when it retest these levels. I’m fine missing a move. Willing to wait to minimize risk is the name of the game; 5444.75 5439.50 5426.25 5419.50Longby SimpleJackTrading0
Long $ES The only way I’ll touch NYSE:ES long is when it retest these levels. I’m fine missing a move. Willing to wait to minimize risk is the name of the game; 5444.75 5439.50 5426.25 5419.50Longby SimpleJackTrading0
E-mini S&P 500 Sell Trade / US SessionS&P 500 sell trade on the one minute time frame. US session. 06:46by PATGLLC0
Market Crash - ES Ascending Wedge BreakoutSo everything went almost exactly as I expected today, but there was a big problem, no sell off and no life for VX. Going into the day I wasn't sure about CPI but figured a hot or cool reading would get a reaction, but didn't expect that big of a rally off of a 0.01% cool print which was mostly as expected. After CPI release, fed fund futures priced in a 75% chance of a cut in September. I thought this was crazy,.no way they are cutting in September. They never had plans to cut in September unless data changed significantly, which it didn't and today's CPI was not going to change their target rate. The expectation dropped to around 60% before the minutes were released, but was still pricing in way too high of a chance. When I saw this, I thought oh yeah this is the classic bull trap. Everything looks.great but after FOMC when the market realizes it's not getting a September cut, there will be a dump. Sure enough the minutes are released and there's no September cut. However, the market held up most of the day and had a small pullback before close. I couldn't believe it honestly, VX just didn't get any life whatsoever despite the market not getting what it wanted, which usually leads to panic in my experience. Then AVGO announced a stock split and NQ pumped even more after hours. So here we are, the market didn't get 2 cuts but doesn't seem to care. However, DXY is showing a lot of strength in the overnight session and assets like BTC and Silver are struggling, which would point to weaker equities. The was weak today and RTY gave up a lot of gains after a strong morning. ES and NQ still remain strong. I fully expect this to end badly because the market was wrong and that is always bad. We should see a bigger reaction soon, once everything settles down. Many things I'm seeing today I would interpret as bearish, but VX just keeps going down and NQ keeps going up. This is part of being a bear unfortunately,. you're unlikely to pick the top perfectly,.so if you decide to short a seemingly strong market at ATH, you'll probably lose most of the time. I still fully expect the market to run out of steam and keep seeing more and more top signals. However,.it's gonna go up until it stops and if you choose to short it, you've got to be a bit lucky or remain patient. I'm remaining patient, we'll see what tomorrow brings. The sell is coming.Shortby AdvancedPlays0
2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment What a time to be alive. Bulls got another huge breakout to the upside which opens new targets above. There is a reasonable chance that this bubble continues much further than anyone could ever dream of, just like all the Nvidia employee’s who sold their stock < 100. Couple more days and half of the sp500 will be made of 7 companies. Bears are not getting any help from the news side and bulls are just peak euphoric. Buying everything anytime is making money, so this will continue until it stops. Dax, Russel2000 and DJI are not participating which speaks to the concentration of the price advances to a small basket of stocks. Commodities had big reversal days, producing bad looking bull bars on the daily chart. Gold was rejected at the daily 20ema and Oil reversed after peaking above the bear trend line from April. I expect more weakness tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: My daily chart is ugly, yes i know. Works though. I have painted 3 wave series for you, which all end around 5500-5600. I won’t write more about this. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5300 - 5600 bull case: Bulls did it again. A minor pull-back is expected though. Given that tomorrow is Friday, I would not be surprised if we do another 1-2% day to just get this bull trend over with. Straight melt up. Anything below 5360 would be a huge surprise. Invalidation is below 5360. bear case: CPI came in soft and the FED is not having any effect on markets currently. Melt up was inevitable. Bears not doing anything and waiting for more bulls to show signs of exhaustion and profit taking. 5500-5600 is where I expect selling pressure to rise again. The 38 point drop from ath 5454 was a bit unexpected tbh but the 1h ema held. Invalidation is above 5460. short term: As long was the 1h ema holds and market stays above 5400, it’s max bullishness. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just higher lows since Globex, market showed signs of knowing the CPI print, because it went max long into the release and every one tick dip was bought.Longby priceactiontds0
Price Action REview ES 6-12-24 CPI + FOMCGoing over the price action for this CPI & FOMC day. intense day very difficult filled with opportunities. keep working hard take shots and manage risk. that is our plan. 04:04by BobbyS8130
Rest day on ThursdayAlthough PPI will be announced on Thursday the expectation for movement in the S&P 500 would be a smaller range than Wednesday and would imply a rest day for this market. The objective to the upside would be 5455 to 546001:49by DanGramza1
ES analysis for CPI day! New ATH Targets // Not financial adviceFor the past few days I've been saying CME_MINI:ES1! is stuck in a range between 5342-5372. After a final failed breakdown of it yesterday that triggered longs, buyers broke us out the range finally. Size down now before CPI…protect your capital. Wait for traps. 5396, 5408, 5421+ next in play for buyers. 5363 lowest must hold on any CPI dips, or we sell by ESMorgUpdated 1
$ES minimize riskIF you want to minimize risk (name of the game) and trade before FOMC; wait until we get a pullback into 5,432.50-5422.50. If you're trading a prop firm account you can expect at least a 16 point tick move bounce. Longby SimpleJackTrading0
SPX Hourly Cypher Pattern - Long DrawHello traders, Today, I am releasing my observation of a Cypher pattern on the hourly for ES. I believe another extension wave push-up is due before retracing into previous pattern zones. Among the chart are target areas, entry areas, and a stop loss I will be using for this trade. As always, keep in mind the possibility of this trade failing to materialize. None of this analysis is intended to be used as a financial guideline, or as advice to any individual(s). Thank you all for viewing! best, Richie Shortby FatmanRichardUpdated 1
Prep and Lean 6.12.24ES Trade Plan Inflection: 5366 Upper lvls: 5397-5402 / 5409-5412 / 5433 Lower lvls: 5355 / 5350 / 5340 / 5331 NQ Trade Plan Inflection: 19151 Upper lvls: 19220-19233 / 19279 / 19359 / 19428 / 19472 See yee in the chat and Stay Frosty! 05:49by Beyond_Charts0
Double Account by Adding to Open Positions With Fair Value GapsTeam I've been adding all week to the existing trend with FVGS Once you have a strong profitable position I like to risk unrealized gains by adding tiny more contracts ALWAYS move the stop loss up to secure profits This can quickly grow accountby tradingwarzone0
Your Roadmap Into CPI and the Fed MeetingE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5371.25, up 15.50 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,109.75, up 72.00 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures consolidated below their respective record highs set in the post-Nonfarm Payrolls rebound Friday. Given yesterday's lack of additional enthusiasm, today could provide a nice range trade as market participants await tomorrow’s CPI release at 7:30 am CT and the conclusion of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting at 1:00 pm CT, where they release a policy decision, statement, Summary of Economic Projections, and Fed Chair Powell holds a press conference. Internally, yesterday was a mixed session. AAPL finished lower amid its developer conference, NVDA pared losses on its first day of trading the 10:1 stock split, AMD was downgraded, LLY set a fresh record on its Alzheimer’s drug news, financials were lower and energy was higher. As we near the U.S. opening bell, both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are flirting at their respective pivot and point of balance. Continued action below 5360-5363.75 in the E-mini S&P ushers a retest of the opening bell low from both Friday and Monday at 5341. Similarly, continued action below 19,067 in the E-mini NQ increases the probability of a test of 18,940-18,982. However, a firm tape within the first 30-60 minutes that holds above our Pivot and point of balance could pave the way for an old-school pre-Fed ramp. Given tame CPI expectations and the dovish-leaning results of the last FOMC meeting, this is certainly in the cards. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 5371.25-5375.75**, 5380-5385.50**, 5400-5406.50***, 5420.75**, 5430.50**, 5449.50***, 5459.75***, 5475.75*** Pivot: 5360-6363.75 Support: 5357**, 5348.25-5351.25**, 5339.75-5341**, 5328-5331.25***, 5322**, 5312.50-5316.50***, 5304-5306.50***, 5295.25-5298**, 5286.50-5288*** NQ (June) Resistance: 19,121-19,155***, 19,208**, 19,319-19,322***, 19,414***, 19,507*** Pivot: 19,067 Support: 19,017-19,034**, 18,940-18,982***, 18,854-18,880***, 18,800-18,819**, 18,753-18,756***, 18,701*** Micro Bitcoin (June) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 69,875, up 120 Bias: Neutral Resistance: 68,600-68,850***, 69,755-69,875***, 70,415-70,515**, 71,160**, 71,650-71,890**, 72,635-72,825***, 73,685****, 76,685-77,000*** Pivot: 67,780-68,035**** Support: 66,898-67,030***, 65,995**, 65,067**, 63,236-63,325*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. by Blue_Line_Futures0
Bear Trade / E-Mini S&P 500 / US OpenTrade based on price action of bearish trending market. Technical analysis on one hour time frame.02:22by PATGLLC0
Long $ES Risking a close below 5343.75. I like the imbalances we have. CPI/FOMC tomorrow. Longby SimpleJackTrading0
Prep and Lean ES/SPX 6.11.24ES Trade Plan Inflection: 5376 Upper lvls: 5382-5385 / 5397 / 5408-5413 Lower lvls: 5364 / 5355 / 5331 NQ Trade Plan Inflection: 19105-19115 Upper lvls: 19197 / 19220-19233 / 18279 Lower lvls: 19040 / 18988-19005 / 18970 / 18894 Stay Frosty!06:09by Beyond_Charts0
Quiet day is expectedA quiet day in the S&P 500 is expected for Tuesday as the market gets ready for the fundamentals coming out on Wednesday.01:37by DanGramza1
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350 tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5385 bull case: In my weekly outlook I was more bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500. After today’s price action above 5360, I’m not so sure. If bulls can break above 5380 and the ath 5385, sure they can get it but today’s highs were not bought eagerly. Bulls remain in full control, trading above 15/60 and daily 20ema. Invalidation is below 5350. bear case: Bears see today’s bull channel as a weaker one, which already had 4 pushes to the upper trend line. They want a reversal below the ath tomorrow and test back down to at least 5350 and then the open of this week at 5347. I expect bears to keep the market inside the triangle for most of tomorrow and going into the CPI release. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: neutral inside given range. Bulls would need to break strongly above 5380 for me to go long up here. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long double bottom bar 18 + 36 on bar 39. 15m 20ema held so you could have held into close.by priceactiontds0
ES - Knock Knock, Who's There..... $5,316 Is Here!I would like to see more data before attacking sellside but with dollar shooting to the upside and FX pairs following with stick index pairs lagging, I'm betting ES, NQ, & YM will catch up.Short09:46by LegendSinceUpdated 1
ES1! afternoon updateI have been keeping this count alive, with the idea that the price action from the October 2022 low is completing the B wave of an expanded flat. I am looking for the (A) wave to complete its impulse before 5532, after which I'm looking for a correction (B) towards the 4800 level, likely a zigzag. I expect it to be rather volatile.by discobiscuit0
ES.Short Idea Paths Given the negative news and VX strength this morning, I'm automating bearish for the day unless something changes. I'm looking for some short setups as a result, but don't expect anything too crazy before FOMC. I see two options for ES today, a move down towards the 5300 area, but mostly a chopy day. The other scenario is VX really gets moving and ES actually breaks below 5300 in an extended sell off. I don't really see a world where we're bullish today, but I may change my mind if I get new information. It should be either down or chop today.Shortby AdvancedPlays0