ES updateNQ and RTY filled the gap from yesterday, but ES still has a small open gap. Also, MFI isn't moving much. I see lots of stuff in the red as well. Running errands today, staying out.by hungry_hippo9
ES Scalping Zones 4/22If daily gap holds then upside targets *5021.5 then 5026.5-5037. For downside targets *4997-4991 and if that fails 4974 Daily Trend Tracker *DXY - Bullish - *VIX - Bearish - *US10Y - Bearish Follow Jbetrading on X for more in depth analysis across multiple asset classes.by JBeTrading0
ES UpdateMFI went oversold last night, but there's also an open futures gap. Don't have time to watch the market today so I took the easy money and cashed out. I think it'll double bottom before going up because of the open gap. Guessing TSLA tanks on earnings. Gold down big caused Brazil (EWZ) to go red. Barely made any money on those calls. by hungry_hippo5
NY Open breakout This idea is based on 8:30 ET Breakout candle.. This is Silver Bullet strategy buy a bit more aggressive. Reason being is that, Previous week was over extended to the downside and expect a retracement bullish short term.. Longby rpcasanas0
Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears at a crossroads. Geopolitical risks remain a factor, and market reaction to earnings reports and economic data will be crucial. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 4996-5000 (major), 4990, 4975 (major), 4966 Major Supports: 4958 (major), 4937 (major), 4904-08 (major), 4878 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5013, 5027 (major), 5039, 5045 (major) Major Resistances: 5081 (major), 5108 (major), 5125-30 (major), 5146-50 (major), 5190 (major) Trading Strategy Geopolitical Awareness: Remain vigilant about weekend news developments and potential market impact. Long Opportunities: Due to potential volatility, exercise caution with long positions. Prioritize bids at 4975 (a reaction may signal buying strength) or on failed breakdowns of overnight lows at 4963. For deeper longs, focus on major supports (4937, 4904), utilizing the knife-catch protocol. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5045, 5081, and particularly 5108 for shorting. A breakdown below 4958 could open up downside targets. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to regain control by reclaiming 5045 and pushing back into the red channel/flag around 5108 for a sustained recovery attempt. Holding Support: Defending the 4996-5000 zone is encouraging for bulls. If 4958 holds on a retest, it may signal a relief bounce. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5013 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 4958 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4937 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 22nd, 2024 Economic Environment IMF Global Financial Stability Report highlights optimism and expectations for policy easing. Verizon earnings report provides insights into the telecommunications sector. Focus on big tech earnings and their potential impact on market trends. Monitoring of economic indicators: commodity currencies, Asian shares, European currencies, and industrial output data from Poland, Taiwan, and China. Market Focus Sector analysis: Focus on communication services and energy sectors. Upcoming economic events: employment report, CPI report, and Bitcoin halving. Additional Market News Earnings season: Focus on major bank reports. Regulatory and legal updates: SEC activities and discussions on college debt and retirement planning. Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of geopolitical events, earnings reports, and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly. Let me know if you have any further questions or would like changes made!Longby spytradingpro0
doji == moment of rest between the bull and the bearsI'm seeing EWT numbers as high as Fibonacci 1.618 or 5443.75.... However my knowledge of the pivots tells me, we are at just about at S 4.3 5009 and I think the market will raise. to R5 or R6 the normal Pivots cycle from daily lows, S5-S6 where we buy and daily highs R5-R6 where we sell. Kauai Dave's Pivots Traders.Longby dryanhawleyUpdated 3
ES Weekly Levels (Apr 22-26)Here are my levels after a few weeks off. Bullish trend was broken with the drop below the upward trendline. Now trading below key emas. Green box represents important support as price pulls back to key fibs and the 200 sma. Watch for outsized move in either direction due to option volatility. Bounce back into the ema cloud or break of support are equally possible. SUMMARY ES posted a weekly loss of 3.15% after trading in a huge 249 pt range ES is now below the 2021 high and the 9/21/55 emas Price has fallen for 6 consecutive sessions. R2 = 2021 High (5092) R1 = MTF 236 Fib RT (5052) S1 = Mar 29th High (4924) S2 = MTF 382 Fib RT (4885) Bias is now down to sideways as the upward trendline has been broken. 200 SMA price magnet in play Strong bounce from 200 sma/ trendline support is possible Econ data this week includes PMI on Tues, GDP on Thurs & PCE on Friday Huge week for earnings with Mega caps reporting including MSFT, TSLA, GOOGL & META. Global event risk is high Rate sentiment has changed from rate cut to rate hold or raise due to persistance inflation. RSI 29.68| VIX at 18.70 | 10 year 4.62% by WadeYendall3
Trend Extend SPX short term futures bullThis algo and automatic drawing system can indicate that an oversold short term furtures index price can retrace to trend extend levels. the projection in the algo and short term futures or money network index risk may accumulate according to trend regularity 33, with automatic drawings suggesting a cross. a bear pullback could look like something as indicated on the chart, where the market overall USI:TICK SP:SPX $DXY/SPY is still a weekly sell.Longby cerealmarketUpdated 0
US futures are fallingUS futures are falling ES1! = 4971.25 low NQ1! = 17,213.50 low YM1! = 37513 low RTY1! = 1920.8 low by Options360Updated 2
Where does the danger live?My God. If the SETUP used is correct, technology companies will melt the SPX index. I won't even write a text explaining why, because no one likes reading. I will post the bearish pivot combined with a buy trap. What a thing, right? Supports: 4933 for the moment. Medium-term secondary support (15/20 days): 4742. I'd better keep quiet. Because things always turn out the opposite of what the graphs show. However, they will never stop occurring at a given future moment. 30 days. Lol Medium-term bearish pivot. All short-term bearish pivot targets have been caught. And in this time frame there are no signs of a change in the corrective direction, therefore, the medium and long-term target presented above is the most sensible for the moment. Do your analysis and good business. Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss. See other graphic analyzes below!by MacD_Bollinger4
#202417 - a weekly #priceaction market recap and outlook - daxDax Quote from last week: bear case: Bears showed strength this week and bulls continued to take profits. Every bounce was sold and this pull back is now as deep as the one we got from mid 2023-12 to early 2024-01, which is around -4%, which is, given the +28% rise, almost nothing. Now we are at the first very important level to determine the strength and speed of this market cycle. If we bounce here and markets shakes off all risks again, we could stay inside a trading range at the highs, or we fall through 18000 and get the first leg of a new bear trend. It is very unusual for markets to go from one trend to another but it can happen. But betting on it, is usually a losing strategy. Bears did an amazing job and closing 2 bull gaps in 2 weeks and their next target is to keep a pull back very shallow to trap many late bulls. The perfect scenario for bears could be as drawn but I do think this is low probability. It’s more likely that we will see a bounce here. A retest of the extreme is almost always expected. current market cycle: Bear trend - all bull trend lines but the one from the Covid lows are broken and the only thing right now keeping this from a panic sell, is the weekly 20ema around 17500. Could it also be the daily 50ema (around 17925)? Sure, who knows for certain? Both are reasonable arguments. key levels: strong support 17900/18000 - 18400 (unsure where resistance will be, we have to find out. 18400 is my next best guess but could very will be 18600) bull case: Bulls bought aggressively at the 2024-03 low, which was their last hope to stop the flush to 17000/17150, which produced a big bullish reversal bar on the daily chart. They desperately need follow through above 18000 on Monday. bear case: My bearish wave thesis was drawn 2 weeks ago and right now I’m unsure about end of the bigger W1 where W5 should lead to below 17200. So case a is, the darker red I to V wave, which would result in a bigger bounce now for II, to form a broader bear channel. Case b would be to continue inside this very narrow bear channel with very small intraday pullbacks that get sold immediately, very much analog to the bull trend we had from mid 2024-02. Case a is much more preferred because it’s low probability to not get a bigger bounce around big support areas. If bears manage to print below 17600 again, this might just go straight down to 17000/17200. Bears doing an amazing job of continuously selling the 4h 20ema, the 9th time now since the ath. That is unusual to say the least. outlook last week: “Tricky one this week but bear with me. It’s an easy if statement. IF tail risks (mainly middle east) continues to get worse, we could see a very deep sell off. Like -4 to -5% deep to 17000. IF market shakes it off and we see strong buying pressure at this key level, we can see a big bounce, targets are 18400, 18600 and retest of ath 18800...." → Last Sunday we traded 18082 and now we are at 17925. Market sold off hard to 17607 but bulls reversed it. So outlook was meh, given that we just moved sideways on the week. short term: Absolutely neutral as of this posting. Tough spot right here where you should not engage new trades until we see more price action. Market is in balance around 17900-18000 area until one side clearly break out of it. Below 17900 is retest of 17600 and below that is probably 17200. Above 18000 is the upper bear channel line 18100ish and above that I’m unsure. Could be 18200/18400. I wait. medium-long term: Third red week in a row, which has not happened since 2023-10. We need to see a proper bounce to calculate new targets or bears just grind this down inside the narrow bear channel. I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. —changed -30 to -20% because price is moving higher while time is getting shorter for the target. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged part Chart update: Chart updated with my preferred wave thesis I to V.by priceactiontds0
ES1! - Selloff In The WorksYesterday I posted analysis for ES but unfortunately, it was for the previous contract month meaning that all analysis made is negated. Assuming this was posted on the Sunday, i was looking out for sellside to be swept, which eventually happened but it's pointless me saying that is what i was on a lookout for when the move has already played out. Overall, i am still short until the liquidity voids is met @ 5075 - 5055 but the main point of interest was sellside located at 5157 which has already been met. The run up to weekly buyside @ 106.006 has been booked, as anticipated from last week. With my overall target of 106.006 met, i am expecting a minor retracement before a continuation up into the 14th Nov 22 lower displacement fair value gap. This could take a few weeks to pan out. but i will be keeping this analysis updated throughout the week. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTANShortby LegendSinceUpdated 0
ES1! - Macro Bulls Loosing Power?Throughout the last few weeks, ES has gently tricked to the upside but this week is looking a bit different. Throughout the weeks, from the beginning of 2024, there has not been a bearish market shift in structure before repricing to the upside yet but with Wednesday, Thursday and Friday being down close days, sellstops could be i danger of being liquidated as near lower highs has formed whilst pushing on further to the upside. My bias for ES is bearish this week into the daily fair value gap located from 5092 - 5020.25 with consequent encroachment being @ 5056. Shortby LegendSinceUpdated 0
Price action Review friday 4/19Price action after thursday night's geopolitical spike returns to normal. After the spike the ES retraced to the 6pm open creating a text book ICT bearish breaker pattern. Reaching down to the NY Midnight opening price. Then bouncing up reaching into the first Pd Array above equilibrium (FVG) creating another bearish breaker pattern which re-established the weekly bearish trend. by dclemens561111
SPX Oversold with an UptrendThis chart shows an potential revesal point in the S&P500. A tradeable 38% retracement rally is probable here. by golddigger460
SP500 SELL after US open and FIB retracementIdeas to seek a short trades in a trend with a FIB retracement.Shortby Even-MartenUpdated 111
spy My Nasdaq 3M view #spy #stockmarkets #StockMarket #stockMarket #trade #trader #technicalanalysis AMEX:SPY NYSE:ES #es1 Shortby awakensoul_3692
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.14 - 04.19Last Week : Last week market opened around VAL of the range and we knew we had supply and strong sellers inside the ranges Value in and above previous gap which we filled. Market was able to balance inside VAL on Monday around Key Support of 49.75 - 44.75 and top of VAL area but Tuesday we started seeing more signs of weakness with flushes from Value into the Edge. Flushes looked strong but every one has been bought up which looked more like shorts were covering from above for profit not trapped shorts from below as we would drop pause to consolidate or cover and then once selling stopped it would rotate back to Supply. Thursdays rotation made another push for VAL but tagged and failed right under which allowed Globex to consolidate confirming that area as now Resistance and give another move back to the Edge. If the market wasn't weak that day then we should have balance around the Edge but instead we got a break under, retest from below and this time a full continuation through the 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range. This week : This week is hitting us with Supply above and news of uncertainty, what can we see going forward ? Friday we did a look below 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Support for this VAH area and came back in but for now didn't accept back inside it or tried to push through it. Question going into this week is will we have enough buying here for the market to try and hold around this 5204 - 5154 Range or will more weakness come in to send us under 5159.25 - 54.25 Support through the Mean towards VAL ? We now have volume trapped in above HTF Edge and we have broke under and accept in 5227 - 5066.50 HTF Range, holding under the upper Edge and failure to accept in or over VAH can bring in more weakness and continuation lower towards VAL and depending how much volume we will be hit with this would be the areas to watch if we either see holds around/under VAL for balancing action inside this HTF ranges Value or if stronger volume comes in or we build up enough Supply there to continue flushing towards the lower Edge where we have more pinata stops. For upside or to see stability again we need to hold above 5159.25 - 54.25 and 5174.25 - 70s areas and start balancing in this 5204 - 5154 range for clean up which could take time before we can think of moves over or inside the Upper Edge again. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5204.25 - 5154.25 Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 // 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 // Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25 Holding under 74-70 Would weakness and IF accept under Key Support can see continuation through lower Range of 5159.25 - 5107.50 Levels to watch there are 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50 Depending on how things get and how much volume we have to come out this week IF VAL at 5100s goes then we could see a push for lower Edge to fill the stops which are down there. IF we do hold current Key Support we will look to balance in this 5204 - 5154 range and for any upside back inside we would need to accept back over 5204.25 - 07.50 area. by HollowMnUpdated 1
ES Daily UpdateRSI hit oversold last night, expecting a rebound next week. Decided to take a small long position with both calls and stocks, don;t really trust this market, lol.by hungry_hippoUpdated 3310
Options Trading is Not about the GreeksCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) On March 24th, I published a trade idea, “Buckle Your Seatbelt for a Market Correction”, where I suggested that the US stock market was due for a major correction. Buying a Put contract on CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures would be a trade to express this market view. How is this trade panning out? • On March 24th, the June S&P futures contract (ESM4) was settled at 5,289.75. The out-of-the-money (OTM) put strike 5,100 was quoted at 63. • To purchase a Put, a trader would pay an upfront premium of $3,150 (= 63 x 50). • On April 18th, the S&P has been down for five straight days, and ESM4 was settled at 5,49, losing about 4.6% since we first placed the trade on. Meanwhile, the 5100 put is now trading at 150.75. • Our put position is valued at $7,537.50 (= 150.75 x 50). If we were to close the trade now, we would realize a hypothetical return of +139.3% (= 150.75/63 -1) in less than a month, excluding transaction cost. While the underlying stock index is lowered for less than 5%, and the put strike is barely in-the-money (5049 is 51 points below 5100), the value of the put contract has been more than doubled. This trade showcases the attractiveness of an options strategy. Firstly, there is time value on the put contract. We have two more months to trade until the options expire on June 21st, the 3rd Friday of the contract month. The probability that the S&P could go significantly lower than 5100 makes the put options very valuable. Secondly, there is a multiplier of 50 built into the options contract. Each index point that the S&P moves in-the-money, the Put position will gain $50 per contract. Thirdly, the volatility of the S&P 500 index has increased 50% in the past month, from 12-12.50 to 18-19.50. Higher volatility makes options contracts more valuable. Options Greeks are Lagging Indicators My trade idea did not price in volatility increase. In fact, it did not even mention any of the options Greeks – Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, and Rho. In my opinion, the Greeks are concurrent indicators or lagging indicators. Take the VIX index as an example. It captures historical volatility about the S&P 500. However, options are priced by the implied volatility. It is the market consensus, or collective sentiments from all the buyers and sellers, about what volatility would be in the future. In this case, historical volatility is not very useful in gauging future volatility. All sophisticated options pricing models eventually bog down to a subjective estimate of the implied volatility. The Greeks are precise about what the market has been, but they are not useful in assessing how market sentiment will be a month from now. We could illustrate this with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which shows real-time market sentiments in Fed rate cut probability. • On March 24th, it indicated the probability of a 25-bp cut in June at 75.5%. There was a 77% chance that Fed Funds move to 4.50%-4.75% by year end, indicating a total of three rate cuts in 2024. Four total rate cuts, which would be a full percentage point lower, was priced at 43% probability. • On April 18th, the probability of a 25-bp cut in June is now down to just 15.3%. The probability for total rate cuts in 2024 are: 2 cuts (32.4%), 1 cut (36%) and no cut (15%). We may recall that only four months ago the market consensus was 6-7 rate cuts. (Link: www.cmegroup.com) If you measured the market last month based on the Greeks, you would have expected the S&P to go higher. Instead, market sentiment turned upside down as March CPI and Nonfarm payroll data completely destroyed the hope of near-term Fed rate cuts. Trading with E-Mini S&P Options In my opinion, the market correction is not over yet. There is a good likelihood that the S&P to move down 10%-15% from its peak of 5,265, to the range of 4,475-4739. Here are the key drivers: • US stock market had a spectacular run in the past two years on the back on AI revolution. While the seven Big Tech companies gained over 50%, the remaining 493 stocks registered low single-digit returns. We are now at the breaking point where the Magnificent Seven could no longer carry the heavy burden of the mediocre performance of the rest. • The lowered expectation of Fed rate cuts results in higher-than-expected future interest rates. This puts downward pressure on company valuation. I had several writings explaining how the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation works. • Escalated geopolitical tension triggers a flight to safe-haven securities. Gold would gain in value while the stock market would decline. CME Group E-Mini S&P 500 Options provide leverage and capital efficiency. Options are based on futures contracts. The contract notional is $50 x S&P 500 Index. On April 19th, the June S&P futures contract (ESM4) is now quoted at 5,031.75. The 4,850-strike put is quoted at 64.75. To purchase a Put, a trader would pay an upfront premium for $3,237.50 (= 64.75 x 50). Hypothetically, if the S&P lowered 10% from its peak to 4,739, the put position would be 111 points in-the-money (= 4850-4739). The trader could exercise the options to capture the price difference or sell the put at a higher price. If the S&P ends up with a smaller correction, the trader could lose money, up to the full amount of the upfront premium. Options traders could find CME’s Options Calculator an easy-to-use tool in structuring their options strategies. The best part, it is free. www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Shortby JimHuangChicago5518
S&P 500: Time to turn around 📈The S&P500 dipped into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: 5025 – 4933 points) with its recent setback. The low of the turquoise wave 4 may have already been reached, but another downward move back into the Zone is still possible. If the index even falls below the support at 4864 points, the magenta wave Alt.(2) will head down into our next Target Zone (coordinates: 4727 – 4584 points). This alternative scenario is 30% likely as of now. Longby MarketIntel0
Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at the critical 5045 support zone . A decisive break in either direction will set the tone for the next market move. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5044-46 (major), 5039, 5033 Major Supports: 5020, 5013 (major), 5000, 4990-95 (major), 4959 (major), 4937 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5054 (major), 5066, 5077-5082 (major) Major Resistances: 5112-5115 (major), 5150-55 (major), 5177-80 (major), 5203 (major) Trading Strategy Focus on the 5045 Zone: This zone has become a battleground. Observe closely for breakouts or breakdowns, as these will trigger the next directional move. Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5045 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5039 or only at major support levels, particularly 5013 and 4990-95. Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of the 5077-82 zone, or more reliable setups at 5112-5115 and 5150-55 for shorts. A breakdown below 5039 offers short potential, targeting 5013. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Holding Support: Bulls need to defend the 5045 zone to maintain control. Relief Bounce: If 5045 holds, a bounce to 5082 and potentially 5112-15 is possible, with further upside potential to 5150-55 if momentum is sustained. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5054/5060 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5039 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5013 and potentially 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting. News: Top Stories for April 19th, 2024 Economic Environment Inflation remains a factor despite a decline. Corporate profits show resilience. Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US. Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news. Reminder: The market is reacting to the battle at the 5045 level. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.Longby spytradingpro0
S&P 500 (ES) - Fight for previous day low The previous day's low (5038) is currently supporting the bulls. Interestingly, we have not been able to break through the overnight high (5057) yet. A breakout above it can set new impulses, with the next targets being the upper #BouhmidiBands (5069) and the previous day's high, which is even higher at 5095. However, a break below the previous day's low (5038) could further fuel the downward journey. The next targets would then be 5010 and the lower BB at 4963.by Sisa874