Or should we ask wether it has started already?
Fundamentally the negative effects have been piling up for some time now. The main problem in my view is the already super low interest rate environment with a still dovish CB, the totally disappeared risk premium (basically shorting HUF against quite a number of other ccys is a positive carry now on longer...
This is not a trade idea, just a simple technical checklist on EURHUF, due to a request from a friend of mine.
Basically we have seen a heavy increase in weight of HUF since mid April-beginiing of May. However I have to note, that the big game was rather short USDHUF among professionals. Despite NBH cut base rate further and they still the same dovish, HUF...
Seriously I don't understand what the hell can be so attractive in the Goulash currency. Nothing has changed and I think nothing will change in economy policy there after the elections. I talked to some of my friends who work as fx spot traders or rate traders in bank treasuries, asked them what do they see or hear from major customers, what are the idea behind...
After breaking below prev. range bottom, EURHUF started a new consolidation phase within the daily Kumo. Since daily Slow Stoch is oversold and will be turning to bullish soon, I recommend to close all shorts and start looking to accumulate small contra longs in 306-307,50. (stops to be placed below 305). I expect a wave up to 310-311 levels next. Maybe it can go...
Despite fundamentally HUF is the weakest chain among EM ccys, technically we have interesting change now which we have to pay attention to!
Daily: DMI crossed bearish, MACD has had massive negative divergence for some time now, Tenkan/Kijun printed a bearish cross (weak sell signal as happened above the Kumo), the higher lows of the chanel (which is the same as...
Long term I am still very bullish for EURHUF, but hey, look at this range which still persist! Who is on the top? For me it looks like policy makers do not want to see it a lot higher than 314-315. General election is due on 6th/April, so I would not be surprised if there have been some "silent intervention" behind the curtain. (btw as far as I know NBH ccy...
