OK, his name is not Simon (real name is "M").... but he is the Fin. Min. in Hungary :-) And yesterday he had a hint on Reuters, that he would prefer a year end EURHUF-0.40% rate closer to 308-310. Well, for the constitutional debt to GDP obligation to be met, they may well require it. On the other side there is another "friend"... let's call him "G". Actually...
Weekly: - Ichimoku back to neutral as Price dips into Kumo. Picture is still unclear as forward Kumo is just a thin line (non existing), Senkou B has been at same flat level for almost 30 weeks (!) at 311,25. Kijun spiked up to same level by now. Price dips below Kijun (medium bearish). All this still means mkt doesn't have a clear trend direction, nor any...
recently EURHUF has been one of the most boring pairs. It was not reacting to anything really, compared to other EM ccys it was moving in a tight range. Will the global risk on finally confirm a valid bearish breakout and continuation on the daily? I already posted a chart earlier on Twitter. Here is some further comments and weekly chart added. Weekly: -...
Well, actually the "Goulash-cannon" really exists!!! It was (is?) used by the Hungarian army for catering reasons. Basically they are cooking and store goulash in it. But let's see what's cooking in EURHUF? - Ichimoku picture is turning to bearish . Price attempts a bearish Kumo breakout. This also means a possible break of triangle's lower side. Supp/res lvls...
Who cares about zero carry any more? Direction matters, that's it. This post is a follow up to my earlier warning today on Twitter. Weekly: - The ccy pair did not match the criteria of bullish Kumo breakout in last few weeks. No higher high above Kumo. - Heikin Ashi is about to make a reversal pattern (of course end of week will matter). - Chance for a double...
EURHUF has become really interesting recently. Despite NBH announced to stop easing cycle in terms of base rate cuts (1,35 % right now), they kept and implemented other tools to boost indirect QE further. They closed 2 weeks depo facility, increased liquidity ratio requirements for commercial banks, and all together pusing cash liquidity out of NBH balance sheet...
I am sorry, made a mistake in the title. It is EURHUF, not EURUSD.
There will be NBH rate setting meeting tomorrow. Mkt expects further 10 bps cut and a new all time low base rate. It is still very obvious, that Hungarian policy makers do not want to see too much HUF appreciation. Maybe they tolerate 300-305, but there they would likely come up with some new innovative idea to weaken their ccy. (like they did last...
But at least it is really time to take profit on longs as I already suggested in my previous posts. Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is neutral. Price action slowed down at weekly Kumo and Kijun Sen. - Heikin Ashi signals possible end of bullish wave: long wicked doji candle, haDelta/SMA3 turning down (still above zero line) - lower supp/res area is 305-307. Below that...
This bullish trend is generally one of the most perfect I have ever seen in my life, and probably the most perfect I have ever seen in case of EURHUF! Look at the 4H chart in the right panel: not just the lower bullish trendline is touched tick by tick every time, but also the upper channel line is more or less perfect! Now we have a very good question here: will...
Weekly: - After breaking a multi year trendline and Kumo, Bears faced resistance at 297 and a correction started. By now Price reached the Kumo and slightly below Kijun Sen, Chikou Span hit past candles again. Ichimoku Setup turned back to neutral. 309,50 - 311,50 area should act as stronger support/resistance. - It is the 8th week of the correction, Heikin Ashi...
That is a stronger HUF! They really do not want to see EURHUF a lot lower. In a small and open economy like Hungary, FX rate has a lot of relevance. And you can be sure about that Hungarian policy makers will do all they can to prevent further HUF stregthenning. Anyway, they do not even hide their intention, for example NBH representatives clearly point that in...
Daily: - For the last 8-9 trading days EURHUF has been moving in an extremely tight range - Heikin Ashi candles are almost all dojis, with both upper and lower wicks. haDelta/SMA3 is stuck ard zero line - Ichimoku setup is bearish, but the flat Kijun Sen may attract Price back towards 304-305, in case it breaks above Tenkan Sen and the trendline (300,20 -...
Hungarian Central Bank will have MPC rte setting meeting next Tuesday. Most of analysts expect the NBH to re-start (continue) its easing cycle in some form, as most of the central banks do globally. Polish Central Bank cut base rate a few weeks ago, Hungarian will likely follow them and all the others. Let's check the technicals! Weekly: - Price tried to break...
Weekly: - After a decent drop fro 7 weeks, last candle had both upper and lower wicks. So far it looks like Kumo bottom and weekly major uptrend line managed to hold. There is also a resistance below Chikou Span in the past Kumo. It is very obvious, that for a major trend reversal Price should break 302 and 300 as well on the weekly chart. - Price may be stuck in...
... will go up... or will trade sideaway Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish, but bearish bias is decreasing a bit. 304-305 resistance holds, MACD lines converge. - HA candle has a very small body today, haDelta crosses up, but the question is still the same: can it come back above zero line? Anyway, there is some positive divergence in haDelta lows. 4H: - DMI...
Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is neutral with Price in the Kumo cloud. Price reached a strong trend and horizontal support - The week has just started, but will be important to see how the candle develops as right now haDelta suggest the weekly bearish momentum could decrease again. haDelta may cross above SMA3 after a really low print few weeks ago. - Lower support is...
Daily: - Slow Stoch buy signal, MACD lines are converging - Yesterday we had a Heikine Ashi reversal candle with small body and long wicks. Today's HA candle is green. haDelta crossed back above SMA3 and breaching above zero line. - Chikou Span reached past Kumo and turnign up again - Short term supp/resistance is daily Tenkan Sen at 308,90 4 Hours: - Ichimoku...