Hello. I am the forescastah. We are all in some form our fashion. We try to use ours minds to predict price movement. Here are some of my thought on US30 today as we trade the third day of the world cup of Trading.
Markets have been selling hard recently. Done well with shorts but starting to feel it's a bit too easy.
Would be much more comfortable shorting into a rally.
This may or may not come, but at this point we can prep to trade momentum setups long if the bear move fails and then plan the retracement trade.
We kept it short and sweet last week and my short term projections delivered just before reversing to current price now @ 40,140.
YM trading back into the median of the weekly range is still considered as a healthy retracement in a overll bull market.
It's also in-line with ES short term shorts.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's...
Using the teal line as the mean, every time price moves roughly 650 ticks above the mean, it snaps back.
We are pushing off the mean now and I believe will continue bullish up to 40,500 which is roughly 650 ticks above the mean.
Monday I expect a bullish continuation higher.
After the move is complete, I will be looking for the revert back to the mean. I don't...
The Hourly Chart's 200sma is the same as the Daily Chart's 21ema
Price is mean reverting back and forth between the mean
Price is above the Hourly 200sma/ Daily 21ema, Bullish
Price does not respect the Hourly 21ema and trades back and forth between it.
The Hourly 21ema is the same as the 5 Minute's 200sma
The 5 Minute mean reverting back and forth above...
Similar to ES1!, I am expecting next week to be forgiving as we have seen a huge bullish run to 40316 without a retracement to the weekly EQ @ 39703 which I do believe is a strong possibility.
Any major movements, I will update this analysis.
39767 is t1
39703 is t2
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to...
A couple of pieces of information that I think will cause a sell off down to 39,150
A declining Hourly 21ema
A gap at 39,150
A rising 200sma that has been poked through last two times
Ramped volume from the FOMC
600 ticks seems really excessive for one session. Maybe two sessions.
Do I go for the throat and hold for a massive trade or do I take the base hit...
4 hour chart: trend, cycle, and momentum are all up.
1 hour chart CCI is above +100 and the trend is up
15 min chart: trend is up and support is at the 50 SMA this is also the 50 SMA on the 1 hour chart
1 hour demand zone RBR formation
$200 risk with 5 contracts
The market only moves from narrow to wide states and repeats. Currently, the market is in state 4 out of the 5 states.
State 1: Narrow state before the move higher ( Narrow )
State 2: The trending move higher ( Trending )
State 3: The expanded move away from the mean ( Wide )
State 4: The reversion back down to the mean ( Trending )
State...
I need to get better at
1. Identifying what state the market is in
2. What number 1-5 in the cycle it is in
3. Avoiding numbers 1,3,5
4. Only trading in cycles 2 and 4
The market only goes between narrow states and wide states
My strategy is the 21ema and the 200sma
I use the 5 minute, the 15 minute and the 1 hour timeframe for Intra Day Trading
I tend...
Looking at the week ahead on the hourly chart, the first thing I notice is that the hourly 21ema is now trending down and declining. The hourly 200sma looks to remain flat and a cross is set to happen later in the week.
I am looking for a pullback into the declining 21ema, whether it stalls right at it or pops above it by a little bit.
I see two spots on the...
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned...
Todays the interest rate decision.
Powell already signaled, that we will not cut rates too early (they already did that in 1970 and the inflation spiked then).
With lasts weeks Consumer Price Index Inflation data (0.1% higher then expected), FED will most likely NOT CUT the interest rate today.
Stocks will react on that by selling off (because interest rate stays...
The 1 hour time frame on the ETH chart is identical to the 15 minute chart on the RTH session chart.
I prefer the RTH session chart due to the cleanliness of the price action.
15 Minute RTH
1 Hour ETH
YM has been frontrunning the market, with all-time highs printing on the 23rd of Feb 24 and this Fridays close being a short term high @$39,008.
$38,399 is where my interest is drawn to with $38,323 being the intermediate EQ which I aim to target.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict...
I see the start of a down move over the course of the next 6-8 weeks to drift down to the bottom of the range in order to achieve a couple of objectives.
1. Fill the Gap from January 19th
2. Hit all the stops from Longs along the way
3. Hit the 1X range expansion of the High/Low from Feb 23rd- Mar 5th
I am bullish over the next decade but right now it looks...
I have been getting my behind kicked the last two months due to this range bound market.
Something that I just now noticed is that on the hourly, the 21ema (purple line) is the same exact average as the 5 minute's 200sma. They are one and the same.
Since price is not respecting the hourly's 21ema, then logically, it will not respect the 5 minute's 200sma and...
