I love Russia, i spent five years of my life there. Nice country, nice people.
This pair is very insteresting because it seems price formed its first long term impulse.
Looking at W1 chart we can see a clear five wave structure. Price tried to reach new highs and bounced from a strong S/R
Here on D1 chart.
- First lower low after a long term uptrend
-...
USDRUB attempts 2nd time to break its quarterly downtrend, started back in June by breaking below the 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66-days)
However only the tag of the mean itself (now at 61.05) will declare the end of the uptrend
USDRUB held uptrend test on 1-year and quarterly basis (bounced back from 1st standard deviations from 1-year (264 days) and quarterly (66 days) means).
What is strange, Russian Ruble continues to fall despite downtrend in WTI oil has failed recently. (see related)
If price continues to trend upwards (above 66) - likely target is 80, a level outlined by Russian...
Hi All,
Here's an update on USDRUB.
Althouth the wave structure of the ascending impulse seems almost complete, there seems to be still one small wave 5 missing at the top. Please refer to the chart for more commentary on this.
In the essense, the upward movement that we have since mid May does indeed seem to be wave 5 of a larger impulse that started in...
Following WTI OIL downtrend failure last Friday, USDRUB tagging its relevant uptrend border first time since it started its descend back in July, marked by lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) mean (@65).
If the price manages to break below the border, chances are the uptrend is over (or at least current leg of it).
Full stop of the uptrend,...
USDRUB was trending upwards in correlation with WTI Oil descend since beginning of July
Currently Oil fell to its 2015 lows (slightly below them now) while USDRUB was holding 65 level with apparent Central Bank of Russia support.
CBR is selling USD against RUB in attempts to stabilize the national currency.
If the Oil trend down stops at this level, USDRUB is...
USDRUB is tagging upper 1st st deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean after several legs of uptrend.
The price has a probability of mean revertion downwards to recharge volatility before going further
Traders can pick up shorts at the 1st standard deviation (62.64) with stops above the relevant peaks (64.55) and target at the weekly mean (60.65)
USDRUB is on the move again - price broke put above 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) moving average on July 6th, signaling upwards probability.
The move comes in line with WTI Oil, which entered a downtrend recently (see related idea). RUB is very correlated to oil prices, as Russia's key exports are oil and natural gas.
The Russian Rouble is a high volatility speculative vehicle which prepares for another round of weakening caused by its underlying deteriorating economy, cheaper oil and generally increasing amount of risk associated with this currency.
The first impulse of the latest upward wave brought us to 57.15, the target of the next higher degree impulse could be approx 68...
People are starting to talk about the Russian ruble again after 3 months of practically no chatter on the Twittersphere following the December RUB crisis. Amazingly, the ruble is one of the best currencies in 2015. Given the poor fundamentals in the Russian economy, I'm starting to become a bit skeptical on the potential for further USDRUB losses over the medium...
USDRUB hit the lower end of its 3 month range and reversed producing a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Slight Bullish Divergence on the short term momentum indicator at the oversold zones suggests a pause and possibly a rebound which could see some profit taking in Equities (RTS Index). If a bounce materializes then the USDRUB will target 60.
Strengths:
-Enhancement The ruble by 18% from 2014 lows against the euro and dollario .
-Stock exchange ( MICEX ) since the beginning of 2015 to + 16 %
-Large Margin recovery for the ruble to reach the pre-crisis levels of June 2014 .
-Rate Interbank Repo 14% cut in view of the revision of reducing inflation (target 2017-4 % )
- Bond 10y 12%
- Bond corporate...
I can come up with a variety of instruments to trade based on the recent macroeconomic events, but right now I'd like to focus on these, since they give me a relatively close timeframe for the reversal date.
Mark your calendars, between February the 5th and 9th, because I think these pairs will start moving strongly in the directions of these arrows.
I'll post...
The last 72 hours of trading have just been crazy.
Until Friday, RUB had depreciated from 33 to 56 in a year.
From Friday it spiked up from 56 to 78 in 3 days.
My last post underestimated the potential spike while assuming it was final wave 5 (and could have had a relation with the previous move up.
There is a more extreme reading where wave 1 only started...
Too vertical so it will recede at some point.
69.50 could be good target for this. Target could be reached in a day or 2.
This is a rather dangerous trade in money management so small size.
Trade
Short 5% 69.50 stop 75 + reconvene if stopped.
