Hot Take: 2008 crash was actually March of 2020 w/ C-19 Drop just a thought when looking at the VIX and SPY. Where the main box is where typical corrections go to/ end and they only really gotten above at 2008 and 2020by mevlinsmoves0
VIX: time for some long vol?The series of 200-period averages might trigger a stepwise price action. the 200-month might act as some major support. Crossing above the 200-week might trigger a price action to the 200-day (the suggested target price). A price action above 19.00 supports a bullish trend direction. Crossing below this level will negate the positive stance. Further bullish trend support above 20.55. Consolidation price range from 19.90 to 21.40. Crossing above 21.40 might target 23.80. Crossing below 19.80 will be the first sign of pending weakness. Remember the inverse relationship to equities. Longby Peet_Serfontein1
Our Bullish Period is Ending :(This is a critical level because when it hits these levels like in 2000, 2008, or 2020 there have been some stock market crashesLongby duckenterprises3
A strange but reliable VIX patternThis pattern tells us that the VIX can be spiking in the coming week which means markets could drop. Let's see what's the catalyst that shows up. Long05:30by markethunter888111116
✅VIX POTENTIAL LONG🚀 ✅VIX retested the strong support level After trading in a local downtrend from some time Which makes a bullish rebound a likely scenario With the target being a local resistance above LONG🚀 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ Longby ProSignalsFx101021
SPY Is going down and VIX is spikingAlthough mid to long term I am bullish, for the next couple weeks, as I mentioned in my previous post, I am looking to see SPY $410 levels. May be lower? Who knows. VIX is about to make a Death Cross (50 sma is crossing below 200 sma). Whenever this happened, historically, VIX has spiked big before falling down. Also On weekly there is an obvious bullish RSI divergence in weekly. I have to mention the candlestick in weekly which is a bullish harami. Checkout what happened when we saw this in VIX weekly chart. SPY has tried 200 sma and was not able to break. Also today SPY has broken the regression channel downwards it was in since 7/15. Also There is an imbalance in liquidity. In order SPY to break 200 sma (which I believe it will) needs to get liquidity which is around $410's. Also this is a key trendline bottom. If this is broken, then SPY will be well below $390's. Another evidence that SPY is bearish is the bearish MACD divergence. I would love to have these charts put here, I don't now how to get multiple charts or add pictures. You may chart yourself and see. Be safe. Shortby aaronrtan3
VIX is out of the wedge!Good stuff today, setting up for another gap up on Monday Early Sep could test a lower low but it will be a retest of the broken wedgeLongby RealTima7
Buying the VIXwww.tradingview.com Entering a long swing position on the volatility futures by buying the VIX futures contract. It should positively correlate to the coming equities move to the downside.by DannyFoss1
playing a dangerous game with vixthe vix, vx1! and s&p500 volatility index is making its rounds around a pivot price. if we cross above that and trama i would look for a test of sss moving average and upperhorizontals. if we staybeneath pivot and trama i wouldlook for continued weakness and lower horizontals. uvxy is the instrument to play.Longby cerealpatterns2
Summer rally near ending?pennant with a narrow point - looks to me it's primed for a reversal by andystdv7112
VIX RSI market oversold and overbought signals We know the vix moveing is opposite of our Stocks. So when the vix falls our stocks rise and when the vix rises our stocks fall. Using RSI, when it cross above the 70 is telling us overbought and when it crosses below the 30 it is signaling oversold. These are reliable indicators when it is safe to buy or sell. Bouncing off those levels also happens if not crossing them. I circled the tops and bottoms of the vix and circled the points on the RSI when it was telling us these tops and bottoms were forming. Right now we have formed a bottom signaling an overbought market. As the trend continue we should see the vix rise close to or up past the 70 on the rsi telling us we are oversold and when it will be a safe time to buy. by Sawyer1703
VIX needs to break 110MA on 1h chartgetting ready for a squeeze into the resistance line at minLongby RealTima112
Decending wedge forming in VIXA decending wedge forming in VIX. The bear market rally doesn't pass the sniff test. Not sure how things are at USA, but in EU we have worse and worse bills for electricity and food. Recession probabilities are high. Currently central banks seem to want to go towards recession and not further inflation rate increases. Combining the macro view with the irrational bull rally in SP500. We notice a good opporitunity.Longby ram4nd0
VIX IHS targets 23.50+Very visual IHS, should be triggered soon imo. Min target is 23.50+Longby RealTima225
VIX breakout? Calling 18 bottom for the next couple yearsFor some reason, VIX loves to make support levels in 3 point increments. It's been steadily rising since 2018 and I believe we'll see support around VIX 18. You can see around 2000 and 2008 VIX found support in the 16.5-19 range for years at a time. I believe it will do that again for the next couple years. Now, locally VIX seems to have flattened out and it about to break out of a falling wedge, perhaps the channel as well. Longby Nicklaus68114
VIX FRACTAL are circled in orange The pattern has been seen only ( times in each of these there was a PANIC. best of trades WAVETIMER Longby wavetimer2
VIX 8hours: Setting up for 200% BURST TP 38/40 (STOCKS)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -24/7 uptime so constant updates VIX 8hours: Setting up for 200% BURST TP 38/40 (STOCKS) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. Tagged as LONG because I expect PUMP soon. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: VIX 8hour chart market overview/outlook ::: revised/updated outlook ::: setup still valid as of today ::: repeating pattern from the past ::: compression into XABCD BULLS pattern ::: before 200% massive PUMP ::: already repeated twice ::: 2017 and 2019 ::: also liquidity near GAP FILL ZONE ::: GAP getting filled then we PUMP ::: XABCD BULLS / point D / PRZ near 11/12 ::: Until FED in september slow drift lower ::: near 11/12 final LOW / get ready to BUY LOW ::: we are setting up for 200% PUMP ::: it's a slow process BUT expect FAST reversal ::: then get ready to SHIFT to BULL MODE ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: BUY/HOLD setup for patient traders ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A ::: N/A 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BEARS/correction mode ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS/200% GAINS ::: Technical structure: XABCD BULLS RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.Longby ProjectSyndicate131378
VIX Spike in Progress - 8/15/2022Spot VIX. Daily view. The VIX is beginning to behave like it did in 2020-2021. A bullish RSI divergence is beginning to form. The RSI is trending slightly higher while the VIX is trending down. Usually, this is the first step to a VIX spike to form. That doesn't mean a large VIX spike might happen tomorrow. Usually, this pattern takes several days to resolve. I say first step because the VIX has a certain "dance" to it. The next step is for the VIX to create higher lows. Usually, 3-5 higher lows would create the bigger spike. The reason why the VIX floated for most of 2022 is due to the market that it reflects. The VIX calculates the amount of hedges in the options market of SPX/ES or equivalent. Simply put, when cash is in demand or futures are used as hedges, that means hedges in options are not being bought up. When there are less options bought as hedges, this mutes the VIX spike. This type of floating action happened in most of 2008, 2015, and 2018. So, it's actually nothing new. However, as the DX (dollar strength) goes down, it means that there is less demand for cash... which means more money is flowing into derivatives. The red line that I have served me well for VIX shorts. However, I have this red line expiring around September/October which is just in time. What I am looking for is an oversized VIX spike. What do I mean by that? I mean if the VIX spikes more than 3 standard deviations, but the SPX/ES didn't drop as much (e.g. only 7%). Why is that? It will likely mean the bear market in ES/SPX would be over. It means cash is not in hot demand as it was between January to July. Cash doesn't disappear out of thin air. It goes somewhere else. If I am reading this pattern right, then we should see a spike in September. There is a possibility of near the end of August. However, it's still too early to tell. I rather be patient and let the market tell me what to do. Those who keep telling the market what to do usually do not last very long.by Itsallsotiresome337
VIX is setting up for a huge squeezeThe wedge has room for lower into EOM. Can get out of the wedge and retested from the top but with lower price sometime mid Sep around 16.50. Im long VIX will add early SepLongby RealTima9
VIX Following 2020 Path Since Late AprilThe upper chart is a seasonal chart with the 2020 and 2022 VIX levels overlaid on one another. It can be observed that there is a strong correlation and they are following the same approximate path starting in late April. This was found by looking at a seasonal overlay of the past years courtesy of the Seasonality (advanced) indicator created by TradingView user @apozdnyakov . Below the seasonal chart is a continuous chart highlighting the seasonal periods as well as an S&P 500 chart for reference. The price of the S&P in 2020 went up from mid August until the end of August and then dropped in September. The VIX was going up with price at this time as the Softbank gamma squeeze was underway. It’s doubtful that a similar scenario will play out this year but you know never. The main thing to consider is that the VIX is on track to bottom out and then rise to a higher level for some selling which should begin in the late August early September period. There is still upside left in the S&P but it should find a short-term top as VIX bottoms out. This is more of an interesting observation, a very speculative prediction, and something to keep an eye on rather than something to base a trade off of. The fact that the 2020 period was the Softbank squeeze lowers the probability of recurrence. by Skipper863
$VIX has peaked or is close to its peak.Since November 10th, the Stoch RSI topping out has been a reliable indicator that a short-term top is in or very close to being in (a few trading days away) and a precipitous fall is to follow. The indicator has been right 7/7 of the last time. I believe the trend will continue and go 8/8. Shortby EBITDAtigerUpdated 2
VIX Says S&P500 Going to New ATHPeople keep comparing this supposedly imminent further crash to the great financial crisis. The VIX disagrees. According to it, we are in territory comparable to 2012. Not my opinion. Just a messenger. The coming bull run probably won't last as long as the 2010s though, because of other factors outside the volatility index.Shortby Indotermes113
VIX - Miss Mess left for Dead / Call Prems are quite Large The VX Complex comes under duress during Wall Streets Summer Fun Run. Buying is an unprofitable game. UVXY / VXX / SVXY is an assured loss. When UVXY was trading over 11, I warned one trader off the Calls prior to the plunge, suggesting it would trade to 9.09 and likely knife right through it. Tis the season for the Crims to run the table - even collaring the Markets bleeds it out. Buying into Roll from AUG to SEP (M1 to M2) is a loser 86.3% of the time on Any and ALL Rolls, it's quite simple. Don't buy ahead of Settlement on the third Tuesday @ 4 PM EST of every Month unless the VIX is in an uptrend. Even then - it's a lower probability as IF there is Roll Yield the Continuous Contract will need to close the Gap left below... it is basic VIX 101 Trading. We can see that the Roll Yield is significant @ 240 Bips you are giving away on the VIG. Why in the f_ck would you do that? The sane thing to do is this - Look out the Curve on the Term Structure and begin buying out the Curve then moving inward as Contango begins to move into far lower PREM. In SUM you are gambling on 13.3% odds in your favor... Unimpressive at best. It gets worse, the structured POS Products - SVXY UVXY VXX - get train wrecked by the Contango as 100% of SEP is 96% of the VXX on Wednesday... and it is bled out to OCT every day at a little less than 4%... with a Gap Below.... which normally fills this time of year. Here's the exclamation point: Trust VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) - 13.44 -0.17 / Another total POS ETF where traders are subjective to Theft. It IS SOH Time. Here is VX Term Structure and Curve - you may follow it yourselves @ VixCentral.com __________________________________________________________________________ % Contango: M1 11.35% - AUG M2 7.01% - SEP M3 3.61% - OCT M4 0.92% - NOV M5 4.36% - DEC M6 0.44% - JAN M7 0.11% - FEB ___________________________________________________________________________ Wall Street and Money Center Banks know the Equity Rally SLOMO/MOMO and now FOMO off June 16th Lows is a complete fraud. We see this in the Curves Optionally for the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) @ 19.53 -0.67 (-3.32%) Now, pay close attention to what those in know... know. ___________________________________________________________________________ 12/21/2022 VIX Calls - 131 Days to expiration on 2022-12-21 20 @ 7.10 21 @ 6.40 22 @ 6.00 23 @ 5.50 24 @ 5.10 25 @ 4.70 26 @ 4.35 27 @ 4.00 28 @ 3.80 29 @ 3.50 You are buying a $20 VIX Call for $27.00... if yer dumb enough to do so. No, you are not, you buy the Micro VIX VXM out the curve spreading your Risk on TIME. No need to pay a Wall Street Goon huge cheddar for VX participation, ever. Never, ever do this... cuz UVXY SVXY VXX do. Let the ETFs bag hold toxic spreads. YOU DO NOT. This is precisely why these ETFs spend 86% of their lives in a downtrend reverse split after reverse Split. Had you bought 1 Share of UVXY Reverse Split adjusted when it began trading... you would have paid $1,000,000. It is the same with SOXS SDOW and all the rest of these underperforming and Very Toxic Inverse ETFs. The Markets can trade sideways for weeks... they will continue lower due to their Derivative components. VTS - Brent Osachoff on YouTube has a great deal of educational videos to bring you up to speed, feel free to ask questions here after you've done yourself the EDU - is vital to your success. Knowing when to strike and when to do absolutely nothing. I hate to see people robbed by the House who has it entirely rigged against you. by HK_L61Updated 151528