Anyone have suggestions on a trip to Tokyo?In Tokyo next end of June for a few weeks, anyone got recommendations for places to go and things to see? Betting COVID gone and JPY weaker.Longby fenditendiUpdated 3
Japanese Yen likely reaching a bottom, short term at leastLots of talk about the #Dollar & #Yen as of the last day. US #Dolalr ( TVC:DXY ) has done well for some time. VS We've spoken on Japan a few times over the last year, has been the opposite. Daily shows that this trade is exhausting SHORT TERM! Look at that volume! Likely Japanese govt is intervening!by ROYAL_OAK_INC0
UJ update 4/29 , 160 Target hit!Quick update on UJ, took 90% of my positions on UJ at exactly 160.00 as that was my TP. Currently looking to add another position as I like the 4hr body closures and rejection wicks to the downside, that to me indicates that it wants to take 160.44 level which is full tp level, or may even blow past that to 163. This week is packed full of news, so i might just sit on the sidelines, or use a small entry as im very bullish on the dollar in general.Longby VincentFX951
USDJPY: bullish ascending triangleHello hello Looks like dollar is about to breakout and we can see the ascending triangle and also long term trend line above. Once it breaks 152 and stays above, it confirms the move towards 160. Happy investingLongby MarathonToMoonUpdated 221
The Yen's Wobble: Bank of Japan in a Policy BindThe Bank of Japan (BOJ) finds itself caught in a precarious situation as it grapples with defending the weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). With global inflation on the rise and other central banks tightening monetary policy, the BOJ faces a difficult choice: intervene in the currency market or stick to its ultra-accommodative stance. The Yen's depreciation stems from a divergence in monetary policies between Japan and other major economies. The BOJ has stubbornly maintained an ultra-loose policy, keeping interest rates at a negative 0.1% for nearly eight years. This stands in stark contrast to the US Federal Reserve, which has begun raising rates to combat inflation. This difference in interest rates makes the US Dollar (USD) a more attractive asset for investors, leading to a decline in the Yen's value. A weakening Yen presents a double-edged sword for Japan. On the one hand, it benefits exporters by making their products cheaper in foreign markets. However, on the other hand, a weaker Yen translates to higher import costs, particularly for essential commodities like oil and gas, which are already experiencing price hikes due to global factors. This translates to a squeeze on Japanese consumers' wallets and fuels inflationary pressures domestically. The BOJ has a couple of options to address this dilemma. One option is to intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling US Dollars from its massive war chest of over $1.2 trillion worth of US Treasuries (as of February 2024 data). This intervention would theoretically raise the value of the Yen by increasing demand for it. However, such a move is not without its risks. Selling a significant amount of US Treasuries could cause their yields, or the interest rates investors receive for holding them, to spike. This could have a ripple effect on global financial markets, potentially destabilizing them. Furthermore, Japan's intervention might be seen as futile if the underlying cause, the policy divergence with other central banks, is not addressed. The effectiveness of currency intervention is often debated, with some economists arguing that it is a temporary solution at best. The other option for the BOJ is to raise interest rates. This would bring Japan more in line with other central banks and potentially make the Yen a more attractive asset for investors. However, the BOJ has been reluctant to raise rates for several reasons. One concern is that raising rates could derail Japan's fragile economic recovery. The country has struggled with deflation, or persistently falling prices, for decades, and raising rates could dampen economic activity. Additionally, many Japanese businesses and households have become accustomed to, and even dependent on, the low-interest-rate environment. Raising rates too quickly could lead to financial instability. The BOJ's decision to maintain negative interest rates at its April 26th meeting underscores this cautious approach. This decision, while expected by many analysts, further highlights the difficult balancing act the BOJ faces. The path forward for the BOJ remains uncertain. The bank may eventually be forced to raise interest rates as global inflationary pressures persist. However, the timing and pace of such hikes will be crucial. The BOJ needs to find a way to defend the Yen without jeopardizing the economic recovery or causing undue financial market volatility. This situation serves as a reminder of the complex challenges central banks face in a time of global economic uncertainty. by bryandowningqln1
JPY really weak right now A few weeks back I posted a swing idea of USD/JPY being a bullish for a while. Price reached my target of 1000 pips and appears to be pulling back temporarily. Another opportunity might be around the corner for more longs. Stay tuned by snipdapipz0
Usdjpy dipping here show range read the caption The USD/JPY pair witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround and tumbled over 570 pips from levels beyond the 160.00 mark, or the highest since October 1986 touched earlier this Monday. Although an official announcement has been made so far, the possibility of an intervention by Japanese authorities to support the domestic currency was cited as a key factor behind the sharp downfall. In fact, Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda refrained from making any commentsShortby Mrsam364
USD/JPYUSD/JPY is on track for its third bullish week, and it will most likely make it. It could also be the second weekly advance since USD/JPY cut through 152 resistance with practically no resistance, following the stronger-than-expected US CPI report Japan’s officials were curiously quiet following the break above 152, but they are making noises again as it approach 155 – which is the latest glass ceiling for markets, which was previously 152. Japan’s ex-FX diplomat warned that the BOJ could intervene if prices broke above 155, and on Thursday Korea and Japan vowed to work together on their currency depreciation, due to their “serious concern” of their rapid declines against other currencies.Longby AFFINITY_MARKETSUpdated 1
USDJPY at 160.00 - is that the top?The big news overnight has been the sharp move in the Japanese yen. At the end of last week, following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy meeting, Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that he was quite relaxed about the fall in the yen, as long as it didn’t have a serious impact on the domestic economy or inflation. This came after the USDJPY pushed and held above a fresh 34-year high of 155.00, a level considered by many to be the ‘line in the sand’ for direct intervention. Early this morning the USDJPY briefly topped 160.00. But this was met by a wave of dollar selling which quickly drove the pair back down below 155.00 before bouncing. It’s unclear whether the BoJ has intervened directly or not, and the situation has been confused by a Japanese market holiday. But the dollar is down this morning, while there has been little movement in crosses outside of those including either US dollars or Japanese yen. But as far as traders are concerned, a break above a USDJPY rate of 160.00 appears to trigger yen buying. It will be interesting if that level continues to act as a cap for the rest of this week. by TylerNorcross0
USDJPY Hong Kong Singapore open pushed up creating a Fake out then Slammed it down 400 pips omg ! Alot of people made or got caught out again on that one You need a hovering Buy Stop Sell Stop EA in this environment Notice Pin Bars usually indicate propulsion to the down or up side. Things haven't changed fundamentally so USD economy is way stronger JPY under pressure on the Japanese. 300 pip move potential Previous similar move has it moving sideways for a while ? Lets see.Longby NZ_Shareman1
LONG TRADE ON USDJPYThe overall trend is bullish and now we're having a retracement for price to keep moving higher.Longby korency1
USDJPY - The FB didn't work. The price is ready to rise USDJPY is forming a move of the potential from resistance to support relative to 150.884. Which indicates the presence of a strong bull market. Earlier, the market formed a false breakdown in the moment of harsh statements of Japanese regulators. But, traders are still selling JPY on the background of strong dollar. Scenario: breakout of the resistance area 151.5 - 151.9, which will form an impulse with further growth. Target 152.5, 153, 155Longby Gold-TechUpdated 114
USD/JPY Rally Hits a Speed Bump Amid BoJ SpeculationWith USD/JPY’s volatility surging amidst rumours of impending Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention, let’s examine the pivotal factors driving this market. Monetary Policy Divergence Fuels Rally USD/JPY has surged since the start of the year, propelled by a notable divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and BoJ. Last Friday, the BoJ's decision to maintain benchmark interest rates surprised traders, diverging from the Fed's commitment to higher rates. This stark policy contrast spurred USD/JPY higher. However, in Asian and early European trading on Monday, volatility spiked, leading to a reversal in Friday’s gains amid speculation of BoJ intervention. Tokyo's recent warnings of potential intervention amplified suspicions, marking a potential shift from their previous hands-off approach. Technical Analysis: Signs of Exhaustion USD/JPY's daily candle chart indicates signs of short-term exhaustion, with a sharp reversal following a break above a key resistance level earlier this month. If USD/JPY were to conclude the trading day near its intra-day lows, it would complete a bearish two-bar reversal pattern. This scenario could potentially pave the way for a more pronounced pullback, leading the currency pair towards the confluence of support levels formed by the broken resistance, anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP), and ascending trendline. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Short-Term Volatility: Hourly Candle Chart USD/JPY’s hourly candle highlights the increase in short-term volatility with the hourly average true range (ATR) spiking. A bearish V-shaped reversal pattern indicates opportunities for day traders to consider shorting intra-day pullbacks. However, individuals considering overnight positions should exercise caution due to the heightened volatility associated with speculation regarding potential intervention from a central bank. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. by Capitalcom0
USD/JPY Day Trading Analysis With Volume Profile 📊On USD/JPY, it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 159.300. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. The downtrend combined with the strong volume area along with strong rejection of higher prices are my main reasons for this short trade. Happy trading, Daleby Trader_Dale7
USD/JPY: Rate Falls Rapidly after Exceeding 160 Yen Per DollarUSD/JPY: Rate Falls Rapidly after Exceeding Psychological Mark of 160 Yen Per Dollar Despite the fact that today is a holiday in Japan, the foreign exchange market is experiencing extreme volatility — wide candles are forming on the USD/JPY chart, and the rate briefly exceeded the psychological level of 160 yen per dollar, reaching a new high in 34 years. The weakening of the yen in the first hours of trading occurred against the background of the fact that: → On Friday, the Bank of Japan decided to leave interest rates at the same level = 0.1%. → At the same time, market participants did not hear clear signals from the Bank of Japan that the weakening yen would be supported. → On Wednesday, May 1, the Fed will announce its decision on the interest rate. It is also expected to remain unchanged at 5.5%, highlighting the difference in monetary policy between Japan and the United States. However, shortly after the yen surpassed the psychological level of 160.00, USD/JPY fell sharply to 155.50 and below — traders, according to Reuters, saw signs of intervention from Japanese financial authorities after a 13% increase since the beginning of the year. Let us recall that Tokyo previously intervened in the foreign exchange market in September and October 2022, when the US dollar exchange rate was about 146.00 and 152.00 yen, respectively. Technical analysis of the 4-hour USD/JPY chart shows that: → the price has exceeded the upper limit of the ascending channel (shown in blue); → the price has exceeded the upper limit of a steeper ascending channel, which originates in March (shown in black); → the RSI indicator exceeded the value = 93, indicating that the market was extremely overbought. Having reached the lower black line, the USD/JPY rate bounced from it to the black median line — thus, a decrease of 2.5% took only 1 hour. If official statements follow soon, they may confirm the assumption that the 160 yen per US dollar level is a tolerance limit that Tokyo cannot afford to allow to be breached. Such statements have the potential to change the balance of power in the market, cooling the ardor of the bulls. It is possible that the peak reached this morning will be a peak that can hold for many months. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.by FXOpen229
USDJPY: Why It Dropped? 🇺🇸🇯🇵 This morning, USDJPY dropped by more than 500 pips this morning. If you are looking for a reason why it happened, remember that historical structure always leaves clues. The price perfectly respected a historic structure of 1990th. Today, we see a perfect example how important are historical levels, and how the market remembers the things that happened more than 30 years ago. Learn key levels because that is the key for successful trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ Shortby VasilyTrader1118
Is the Yen Starting to Crash?There have been big exciting moves in the Yen recently. This post will look at some scenarios this may lead to. First, let's take a big overview of historic Yen trends. Since I'm going to be discussing this from the perspective of a pending Yen crash to keep things simple for people unused to Forex quotes I'll use inverted versions of the charts. Because to forecast a crash in JPY is to forecast a huge rally in XXJPY. Which can seem a bit confusing if making a bear case with lots of arrows pointing up. So here's USDJPY inverted. This has the potential to turn into a really bearish chart. If all legs of the USDJPY trend have completed that we might see it correcting the 76 fib. That's a long way down and since in a bullish scenario we'd be looking at a wave C correction, this would be expected to be a in crash style. JPYUSD looks like it could be forming a head and shoulders pattern and be due to head into a really harsh mean reversion. When we look at it from a large perspective like that, the moves we've seen recently are rather small and fit well inside the expected context. If we're making the break of the neckline in a big head and shoulders, selling should be strong. This chart is very much a chart of context. If we look only at least last decades then it'd appear the Yen fall has been massive. it looks like it'd be reasonable to think we may be due to bounce. But if you look at it on a far larger scale, it's evident there's would be much more to fall to retrace the massive rally there was before we went into this long slow (Topping?) range. Yen downtrends broke various important levels last year. For a while last year I'd been really bullish on the Yen because it was at what I thought should be great support levels. That didn't last very long. It hammered through my support levels and kept going. The simple "Buy the dip" trade failed a long time ago and now we're threatening multiple decade breakouts. Viewed against other majors Yen is at or breaking multiple year lows. Through last year we've hit a lot of levels we'd expect buyers if the trend was to continue and we increasingly see various typical signs of uptrend failure over the Yen crosses. So what might a Yen break look like? Well, we can perhaps get a bit of a preview using the CHF. JPY has already broken against CHF and is at all time lows. Across the board the Yen is on the cusp of firing lots of bear break signals. In terms of tactical trading, I am always extremely cautious of false breakouts and excessively strong moves coming close to the end of moves. I'm feeling really bearish on the Yen but also wary that if these turned out to be false breakouts the market could be liable to move extremely fast against me. I think we're now into the area where a big decision is going to be made. If we've not seen the big impressive capitulation finish to this Yen move, then there's a real chance the Yen begins to crash upon breaking the pending support levels. At 150 I wrote up the case for a possible big USDJPY breakout. I think we're now at the real test point for that. Read the USDJPY bull case below: Longby holeyprofitUpdated 222
USDJPY Day | Bullish bounce Based on the daily chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 151.84, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Our take profit will be at 158.38, a swing high resistance. The stop loss will be placed at 148.38, which is a pullback support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. Longby FXCM4
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 26, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains under heavy selling pressure on the first day of the new week, pushing the USD/JPY pair above the psychological 160.00 mark for the first time since October 1986. The significant divergence in the Bank of Japan's policy outlook and the Fed's hawkish expectations continue to undermine the yen amid relatively low liquidity amid the holiday in Japanese markets. Nevertheless, overbought conditions and concerns over possible intervention by Japan to support its currency are helping to limit further losses. In addition, a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) is keeping the currency pair's gains in check, although significant Yen appreciation still seems elusive amid uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's rate outlook. In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index released on Friday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will wait until September before cutting interest rates. This should continue to serve as a tailwind for the US Dollar. In addition, the overall positive tone on risks could undermine the safe-haven Yen and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair lies to the upside ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday. This week, investors will also keep an eye on the release of important US macroeconomic data scheduled for early in the new month, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure on Friday, before making new directional bets. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.Shortby Fresh-Forexcast20040
usd/jpyIn the time frame 1 h, we see that it has reached the ceiling of the channel and we expect a declineShortby mohsen9678Updated 116
USDJPY buy for daily uptrend continuation USDJPY buy for daily uptrend continuation , is on a strong uptrend on the daily time frame and from here the trend will sure continue Longby BALE_FX16