S&P 500We have a macro supply zone 4h that the price reacted with a bearish engulfing candle, than the price distributed but at the same time the price leave a possible liquidity run with a micro supply zone in 15m which we will react only with an candle pattern.Shortby Damianjhdzd0
S&P500: Bullish trend confirmed.S&P500 has turned bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 58.980, MACD = 2.870, ADX = 28.757) as today it is trading and will most likely close over the 1D MA50 for the third day in a row. Having crossed over the LH, the index has invalidated the bearish sentiment of April and a new Channel up is emerging. If it capitalizes on the 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we expect the 1D MA50 to hold from now on as the medium term Support, just like the 1D MA100 held on the April 19th bottom. Buy and target the R1 level on the short term (TP = 5,275). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##Longby InvestingScope15
Two correctionsAMEX:SPY has fallen broken the trendline and initiated its correction. Bearish divergence has formed as well. Two possible correctional scenarios hereShortby pandersailUpdated 1
IS IT A GOOD TIME TO BUY STOCKS? In order to assess whether it is a good time to increase exposure to riskier assets such as equities, institutional traders often use correlation tools and inter-market analysis. Depending on the macro environment (uncertainties, market drivers, monetary narratives), traders periodically assess their exposure between offensive and defensive values (Risk-on vs Risk-off). One of the easiest way to assess investors' trading stance and appetite for risk is to look at what is happening on other asset classes such as Bonds and currencies. For instance, on this example you can find the US 10 year yield (bond) on the right, the US Dollar index in the middle (currency) and the S&P500 (stocks) on the right. It is easy to notice the mechanism in place here : When the currency becomes weaker while the cash goes back into bonds (bear in mind that when bond yields drop means bond markets goes up), it usually sparks a bullish trend in the stock markets. This is exactly what we are seeing here. Bond yields have started to drop on the 1st of May, alongside the Dollar index, which sparked a sharp rebound on the S&P500 at the same time. Of course, sometime these three asset classes aren't correlated that much, which means there is no clear trading signal and that uncertainty lingers in the markets. But when a drop occurs in both bond yields and the currency of a specific economic zone, this is seen as the best setup to buy stocks for traders. This is explained by the fact that when the currency drops, large exporting groups are able to sell more internationally, boosting their exports. Meanwhile, a drop in bond yields means investors are willing to put more cash into the market. If you're willing to know whether it is a good time to increase your exposure to equity markets, maybe you should pay attention to what's happening in those key other assets. Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades. The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk. UEducationby ActivTrades3
Bulls and Bears zone for 05-08-2024Is this rally coming to an end. Yesterday afternoon market sold off which continued to ETH session. Any test of ETH session Low could provide direction for the day. Level to watch: 5195 --- 5193 EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ESTby traderdan590
Big Elliot Wave Plan for if a High is Made. Around 4800 I said I thought if there's a spike out before a bear move it's likely to go to around 5200. We've traded a little over that, had a strong sell off from just above it and now we're retesting it. If the original thesis proves to be correct, 5200 area will be an important high and we'll see a stronger rejection on the retest. Here's an Elliot wave trade plan based on the assumption this rally will reject and we've formed a big wave 2 - heading into the stronger part of the downtrend. Invalid if there's a break above previous highs. Shortby holeyprofit11
SPx (Still bullish pressure)Spx New Forecast the price reached our target as we mentioned in the previous idea. Now, it still has a bullish trend to reach 5224 from the pivot line which is 5177, so otherwise, it should break 5177 by closing 4h candle under it to get 5150 and 5120 Pivot Line: 5177 Resistance Levels: 5202, 5224, 5249 Support Levels: 5153, 5120, 5103 Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5160 and the resistance 5249. previous idea: Longby SroshMayi5
SPX500 Will Go UP!SPX500 went down sharply And the SPX is locally oversold So as we are already seeing a Bullish rebound from the Horizontal support level of 5015 A further move up is to be expected !Longby kacim_elloittUpdated 118
Pullback resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci retracementThe S&P 500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot. Could this index potentially reverse off this level to drop towards the 1st support? Pivot: 5,203.08 1st Support: 5,122.82 1st Resistance: 5,248.37 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.UShortby ICmarkets2
S&P500, new ATH in progress! 🤯After recovering large amounts of liquidity on April 19 at $4948, retraced in the OTE zone, we went back up, creating 2 nice CHoCHs. I really went back to buying at the CHoCH at $5173, which for me marks a real return to the upside. I'm very confident that a new ATH is imminent. 3 zones to look for before the ATH: ✅ 5219$ ✅ 5242$ ✅ 5265$ In my opinion, this will be done in several stages. I've drawn an example of a setup here, which I'll try to search for interesting entry zones to buy. Feel free to subscribe and boost this post if you enjoyed my analysis, and tell me what you think! Happy trading and a great week :)Longby InfiniteY3
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to 100% Fibo lvl 5209.Colleagues, in the coming trading week I expect the uptrend to continue after the formation of corrective wave “2”, which I expect in the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5025. After that I expect the beginning of the formation of wave “3”, with the aim to reach 100% of the Fibonacci extension level 5209. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns! Longby Hellena_TradeUpdated 2215
SP500 in the hammer zoneSP500 reached a strong reversal area where price reacted in the previous week. I was expecting a little pump in my previous ideas, and honestly i wasn't expecting it to rise so much. But i am holding my short trades and i am adding more here, consider i expect a selloff this month. First target the support zone at 4990Shortby CryptoForexGem3
SPX at Do/Die level! If you listened to the week ahead video on Sunday, May 5th, I was looking for the SPX to trade up to 5200 and this could be critical resistance. Well, we are here now, and this will be key resistance. And there is triple confluence. It is channel resistance, and also the 78% retracement of the all time highs to the April 18th lows. Also, it could be a gartley reversal level as well. It's going to be do or die for the broad market. If we continue higher from here, all time highs may be made. If we turn lower, a longer term lower high may suggest a turn lower in the broad markets longer term.Shortby ForexAnalytixPipczar1
SPX500USD - Bullish Momentum UnderwaySPX500USD has been undergoing some bullish momentum over the last few days. This may lead to a potential push to the $5350 region over the next few days. Further movement will take time to tell; but overall it’s currently looking good. All 4 of our Core YinYang Oscillators and exhibiting Bullish Momentum; however since there is such low Volume, it’s hard to say how strong this momentum will be. Nonetheless prepare yourself for a potential movement upwards in the short term.Longby YinYangAlgorithms0
S&P 500 - building on last week's gainsAll the major US stock indices were firmer on Tuesday, building on gains from the latter half of last week. Investors were relieved to wave goodbye to April which proved to be an unsettling one in terms of increased volatility. Sentiment soured significantly last month, following an uninterrupted rally since the end of October. But US stock indices have had a strong start to May and last week saw a couple of positive factors which contributed to the turnaround. First, the Fed’s FOMC monetary policy announcement on Wednesday was more dovish than expected. The Fed Funds rate was left unchanged, as expected. But the Fed reduced its balance sheet reduction programme, which helped to rein in the recent surge in bond yields. Then, Fed Chair Powell said that while the market should expect rates to hold at current levels for much of this year, there was no reason to think that they should go up before they go down. This was all good news for investors. And they got a further boost on Friday as Non-Farm Payrolls came in well below forecasts, the Unemployment Rate rose, and Average Hourly Earnings eased back a touch. The dollar sank, while stock indices flew higher and held their gains into the close. Overall, the Average Hourly Earnings data reduced fears of inflation showing up in wages, while the increase in the Unemployment Rate, and the disappointing payroll number provide some evidence of a slowdown in the jobs market. That is good news, as it bolstered Powell’s statement that the Fed won’t be hiking. Looking at the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of the first interest rate cut has shifted back to September from November. On top of this, the possibility of two 25 basis point cuts this year has also risen. The earnings season continues this week with Disney, Coupang and Rivian reporting today. Last week Magnificent Seven constituents Amazon and Apple provided some market cheer, with the latter announcing a record $110 billion stock buyback programme. NVIDIA is the last Mag 7 to report, but we’ll have to wait until for another couple of week for that potential firework.by TylerNorcross1
Long US500I am looking for a retracement, and after that I believe the market will continue its uptrend.Longby JelaniFX1
SPX & Elliott Wave Developed in the 1930s by Ralph Nelson Elliott, Elliott Wave Theory proposes that markets unfold in a series of five-wave impulses followed by three-wave corrections. These "waves" represent the collective emotions of investors, shifting from optimism and bullishness (impulsive waves) to fear and bearishness (corrective waves). The Anatomy of a Wave: Impulse Waves (1, 3, 5): These are the driving force of the market, pushing prices higher or lower in a sustained trend. They are characterized by strong momentum, increasing volume, and clear directional movement. Wave 1: The timid start, characterized by low volume and often met with skepticism. Wave 3: The powerhouse, boasting the highest volume and strongest price surge, often exceeding the gains of the previous two waves combined. Wave 5: The final push, often fueled by euphoria but experiencing declining volume as the trend nears exhaustion. Corrective Waves (2, 4): These counter-trend movements retrace a portion of the previous impulse wave's gains. They are characterized by lower volume, consolidation, and indecision. Wave 2: A pullback following Wave 1, often testing support levels but not exceeding the Wave 1 high. Wave 4: Another correction, often deeper and more complex than Wave 2, but not violating the low of Wave 2. Fractal Magic: The beauty of Elliott Wave Theory lies in its fractal nature. Each wave, whether impulsive or corrective, can be further subdivided into smaller waves that follow the same five-wave or three-wave pattern. This allows traders to apply the theory to different timeframes, from short-term day trading to long-term investment strategies. Volume as a Guide: While identifying wave patterns is key, volume confirmation adds another layer of insight. Remember that Wave 3, the engine of the trend, should experience the highest volume as bullish sentiment peaks. Conversely, Wave 5, the final leg, should see declining volume as the trend loses steam and investors become cautious. This volume divergence can serve as an early warning sign of a potential trend reversby Heartbeat_TradingUpdated 2215
SPX: Bulls Take the Stairs; Bears Take the Elevator (part 2)Ok we are nearing the top floor of this trip Our trip down will be a little more "hurried" than our trip up Buckle Up! P.S. if you don't like to ride the elevator down then there is another one about to head up over on TLT :)SShortby Heartbeat_TradingUpdated 779
Distant and Not-So-Distant CousinsEverywhere I look I'm seeing talk of a "new bull market" But I don't think this is a new bull market I think we are getting a visit from a distant relative: Ole' Cousin Bear Market Rally Why do I think this? Well, typical of "family", the members within share common attributes In the next post we will talk about what some of those common attributes are in detail Shortby Heartbeat_TradingUpdated 7713
Macro Monday 8 - S&P500/M2 Money SupplyMACRO MONDAY 8 S&P500 / M2 Money Supply ( SP:SPX / $WMN2S) M2 is a broad measure of the US money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash such as CDs. M2 is seen as a reliable metric for forecasting/predicting inflation and for this reason it can be used as leading economic indicator. For example, when there is more cash made available or too much, more cash typically gets spent. A little more can be good, too much or too sudden an increase can increase the risk of inflation. That's why the Federal Reserve constricts the money supply when inflation rears its ugly head. At present the Federal Reserve is decreasing the M2 Money supply in an effort to slow down spending in order to control and reduce the rate of inflation. Since April 2022 the M2 Money Supply has reduced from $22 Trillion down to $20.82 Trillion. The money supply and its impact on Inflation combined with current interest rates has major ramifications for the general economy, as they heavily influence job availability, consumer spending, business investment, currency strength, and trade balance. The M2 Money Supply also has a major impact on the stock market and can act as catalyst for increased purchases of stocks (when the money supply is increasing as more money is available) and can also cause the selling of stock when money supply is tight or tightening as it is at present (as less money is available in the wider economy). The Chart – Accounting for Money Supply As noted above the M2 Money Supply is reducing and it is expected that this may result in the S&P500 making lower lows as the supply of money continues to contract. The S&P500 performance looks very different when it is adjusted to account for the increases and decreases of the money supply. We can achieve this by dividing the S&P500 by the M2 Money Supply (Chart 1). Chart 1 – S&P / M2 Money Supply - Since 1996 the Major Resistance Zone has stopped every progression higher. - In 2007 a rejection from the resistance zone resulted in the Great Financial Crisis - Major recessions are labelled with red arrows & market corrections with blue arrows. - Since GFC there have been a number of rejections from the resistance zone which have coincided with notable corrections for the S&P500 (see blue arrows). - The most notable of these rejections was the COVID Crash in March 2020. - We are at the resistance zone now and it appears we are struggling to breach above it and may be rejected again. Given we have been rejected by this level 5 times since the 2007 Great Financial Crisis, it seems wise to remain cautious and expect a rejection from this level again. Chart 2 – S&P500 & M2 Money supply (Segregated) - This chart shows you the S&P price action in isolation and underneath the M2 Money Supply for reference. - The declining M2 Money supply is like a weight or float pushing and pulling the S&P500 price action in its direction. - The M2 Money supply may gravitate down towards its long term trend line over the coming year(s) and one would expect the S&P500 to follow its lead and also gravitate lower. - Interestingly, on Chart 2 you can see that the level that the M2 Money Supply and the S&P500 were at prior to the pandemic would present an S&P500 price tag of $3,350. Summary Its seems unlikely that the S&P500 is about to break higher due to the overhead long term resistance zone on Chart 1 which helped predict the last two recessions (red arrows) and a handful of corrections (blue arrows). There is a strong likelihood of continued M2 Money Supply normalization towards its long term trend line on Chart 2, especially considering Federal Reserves continued efforts to constrict the money supply through quantitative tightening to help quell inflation. These efforts will likely subdue any attempt of positive price action on the S&P500. It is important to recognise that the Dot Com Bubble in 2000 pressed through the resistance zone on Chart 1 demonstrating just how big a bubble it was. It was initially rejected from the resistance zone in March 1997, however the M2 Money Supply was increasing at this time so whilst this outcome is always possible, it does not presently seem probable with M2 Money supply decreasing and likely continuing to decrease going forward. Another potential outcome is a false break out above the resistance zone on Chart 1. We have had an unprecedented increase in to the money supply since the March 2020 COVID Crash and this could have a lagging effect which eventually pushes us over the resistance zone. Fiscal Stimulus which is harder to predict could also help us arrive at this scenario. Regardless, if these circumstances are met with continued decreasing M2 Money Supply, I believe that it would be a short lived breach of the resistance zone resulting in maybe a $4,980 S&P500 price tag (a higher high) followed by a severe correction. That is IF M2 Money supply is still decreasing as the S&P500 makes those higher highs. And finally we have to consider what most people would consider to be the most unrealistic scenario, a Dot Com Style bubble towards the top red line on Chart 1. As improbable as this is, a combination of factors could lead us into this scenario; - The aforementioned lagging effects of the unprecedented never before seen increase in the M2 Money Supply since the pandemic. - Continued or new Fiscal Stimulus from the US government. - The bullish AI narrative (which appears to be dissipating at present) This final bullish scenario is worthy of consideration especially factoring in the comparisons of the 2023 AI hype to the 2000 internet boom. As we enter a new technological epoch with the likes of Augmented Reality, Cryptocurrencies and AI, are we getting ahead of ourselves again? Do these technologies need a little more time to mature much like the internet? Are we overextended like we were in 2000? It’s hard to answer no to any of these questions but against the backdrop of record levels of Quantitative Easing and Fiscal Stimulus we have to keep an open mind as the Fed tries to simmer us down from these record levels of liquidity It will be very interesting to watch these charts over coming weeks and months to see if we get our anticipated rejection from the resistance zone on Chart 1. A special mention to Ben Cowen from "Intothecryptoverse" who originally brought this style chart to my attention. My chart could be considered a snapshot of his view however I hope I have added to it in some way with the above commentary and some correlations I have noticed. Thank you for reading to the end. I hope these charts help frame todays market for you going forward. I’ll keep you posted on any major changes. PUKAby PukaChartsUpdated 8
SPX big short attempt. Been swing bearish on SPX for a while. With previous analysis I thought the stop hunt risk was to 5200 and then the bear trade would come. If this is right, we have a lot more downside to come. Potentially even taking out all of the 2023 rally. But one thing at a time. Next big support level would be 4725. Currently positioning with shorts and OTM puts with strikes close to ATM and high RR ones close under 4800. Shortby holeyprofitUpdated 227
sp500 going to double-top...profit taking and uncertainties due to higher inflation, unemployment rate, war in ukraine and middle-east.Shortby Geffthefishers112
JUST ANALYSE SPX500 ( H4 )now the price of sp500 5180.73 do to my analyse sp500 price is going down to near 4977.46 by Millionaire_789112