Firstly Happy New Year to all my followers!
SPX finished 2018 with a bounce as is usual given that most fund managers
will want to maximise their annual performance.
My bearish stance on stocks has not changed and I believe 2019 will continue
with this theme.
From an EW perspective I have the current bounce as minor wave 4 Blue which may be
complete or may...
Well SPX smashed through the resistance line last week and is well in its 3rd wave down.
Momentum is still down with no divergence which indicates that this 3rd wave has
some way to go yet.
I have marked a possible target zone for wave 3 at the 161 & 200% fib levels of wave (1)
Good Luck and Merry Xmas!
Well, FTSE reached my predicted target last week in the highlighted green zone and
has now reached an area of significant resistance on its way down.
Looking at RSI & Momentum one can see clear divergence and I have marked the
current low as intermediate wave (1) black.
I expect a small bounce in wave wave (2) which may start very soon given end
of 2018 is...
Update from my chart last weekend.
FTSE looks to have completed minor wave 4 blue and started its decent to complete minor
wave 5. Given that xmas is upon us and there is a lot of financial news next week I think
that wave 5 will be slow and yo-yo like, perhaps taking the form of an ending diagonal.
My target for wave 5 is somewhere in the highlighted green...
Last weekend I suggested that NDX may try to fill the open gap? in the event NDX reversed in my
highlighted zone and was rejected solidly again by the trendline which now clearly shows solid
resistance. The fall last week suggests intermediate wave may be underway and initial targets are
the support lines at 6635 and 6172 IF the last low at 6641 is...
Last weekend I suggested that the diagonal that had formed was more likely a leading than ending diagonal
and events since then have clarified this.
Minor wave 3 Blue may have finished at the red support line with minor wave 4 also complete yesterday.
If correct FTSE will fall to perhaps the second support line at 6618 where intermediate wave 5 would
Last weekend I suggested UKX was completing either an ending or leading diagonal because
of the extreme choppiness and overlapping waves.
Since then UKX has put in what looks like an a,b,c correction which strengthens the case
that the diagonal is leading. In addition the fall from 28th Nov looks like a 5 wave impulse.
If correct next week should see UKX test...
The FOMC chairman's speech last week gave the markets a bounce which has carried to the end of the week.
This may be short lived as the EW structure looks very much like the bounce is wave C circle of a flat correction
which when complete will lead to a much larger fall in minor wave 3.
The correction may finish at the now RED resistance trendline OR try to fill...
We have seen the heroes of the NDX suffer big falls of 20% or more over recently.
Apple, Netfix, Facebook have all given their investors a shock!
IMO this is just the start of a much bigger shock as wave 3 gathers strength.
The support line has been breached and wavev 3 will draw NDX to below 5000 or more.
FTSE looks to be entering a decisive area of intention.
Multiple overlapping waves signify a diagonal structure which can only occur in waves 1 or 5
of an impulse or waves A or C of a 3 wave correction.
The support line going back to July 2017 has been broken a number of times and a solid close
below 6870 would suggest a very bearish scenario.
It has not been easy to figure out the FTSE EW pattern since the top and I have suggested in previous charts
that FTSE may be creating a leading diagonal.
The pattern has become a bit clearer recently and my prediction of an impulse wave down since the top has
NOT changed although I have modified the EW labelling as shown on the new chart.
At present FTSE looks...
My previous extended flat correction idea was voided but I still believe that the current bullish
push higher is a corrective wave.
Wave 1 corrections are often deep as the bulls feel that the wave 1 low is another buying
opportunity in a never ending rise!
It is now possible that DJI is completing wave c circle of intermediate wave (2) black which
Following up my previous NDX update.
The election is over and the FOMC rate decision comes later today.
NDX has completed intermediate wave (1) black and is now in wave c circle of intermediate wave (2)
which may complete somewhere in the highlighted area.
If correct intermediate wave (3) black will pull NDX much lower. Good Luck
My last DJI chart suggested that DJI had completed an expanded flat correction
for intermediate wave (2) black.
This chart adds weight to that idea and expands on my thinking and deduction:
On the 4 hour chart which is my favourite for medium term EW analysis the final
impulse wave can be seen terminating in the wave (V) olive top.
Intermediate wave (1) black...
This chart presents tge possibility that todays high marks the end of minor wave 2.
Wave 2 may have taken the form of an expanded flat with todays 5 wave impulse
The C wave finishing in an ending diagonal.
Bearish momentum divergence is evident, watch closely in the next day or so.
Following on from my post of 28th Oct which had NDX in a leading diagonal.
This looks to have now finished BUT the relief rally looks very weak indeed so far!
If the diagonal low fails this will open the path for a much larger fall.
I think that the first wave down from the top is almost complete as an expanding leading diagonal, albeit
the shape is not exactly textbook!
However there is now marked divergence on the 4hr chart and what looks like an ending diagonal to
complete the c wave of the 5th wave. If correct next week may see a further small fall to complete
the pattern followed by a...