This chart looks at DJI since 2009 to present on log scale and clearly shows a channel and fib timezone.
DJI clearly broke the channel downwards in late 2018 and has strongly bounced to retest the channel in early 2019.
What next? My own thoughts are bearish as DJI was rejected at the channel high on strong bearish RSI divergence.
I think the next few weeks...
My last idea on Mar 1st had DJI reaching a decision point!
Well, the decision has been made and in the short term at least a downward trend is in place.
The open gaps will be a magnet for this downtrend and the first gap is closed with the second
at 25055 in sight.
If correct I expect this first wave down to finish around 24984 which is the 78% fib retrace...
Updating my last FTSE chart which suggested a leading diagonal was taking shape.
This idea looks correct and the resulting minor wave correction to 2 blue was deep
Today FTSE has broken the upwards channel downwards and minor wave 3 blue is
in development. This wave will probably aim for the lower red channel at least.
My chart last week showed momentum waning and DJI perhaps reaching a turning point.
After reaching major resistance DJI started to retreat albeit very slowly.
Today DJI closed quickly the gap created from the open after what appears an initial 5 wave down.
If correct DJI may aim for the other gaps on the downside in wave (3).
Next week should be interesting.
Following on from my last FTSE update it looks like the A,B,C correction is complete within a good set of trendlines.
The first wave of wave (3) black looks very much like a leading diagonal with wave 5 circle now in progress.
Once complete this diagonal will correct upwards before starting a much larger fall, probably early next week.
Last weekend I suggested that the DOW DJI was getting close to a decision point, this week with the DJI powering ahead again
I believe the decision point is very close.
25827 closes an open gap and is also the .786 correction from the ATH. In addition wave C blue in the correction is .618 wave A blue
at this level.
Momentum is still diverging and my EW belief is...
The strong rise in US indices since late December has given many bears (including myself) a shock
but when one looks at the chart this rise makes some sense.
Often when a major support line is broken the index will bottom and then bounce back strongly to
the trend line which now forms resistance. DJI has done just this and is fast approaching the area
The EW structure of FTSE since the ATH has been tricky to follow BUT if my wavecount is correct
FTSE still has a fall ahead to around 6425 which is the 61.8% retrace of the previous rise.
At present FTSE looks to have completed an expanded flat for intermediate wave (4) black and
has started Intermediate wave (5) black down.
My previous wave 4 ideas were violated by the strong SPX gains since late Dec.
Looking at the chart I see a possible 3 options for the EW structure so far.
1) SPX has completed INT wave 1 and 2 black and minor wave 1 blue and has nearly completed
minor wave 2 blue. The recent triangle may mark the end of this current correction and if
correct wave 3 minor will...
The minor wave 4 double zig-zag suggested in my last post was a lot stronger than expected but
may have finished yesterday as a clear W,X,Y correction.
There is strong momentum divergence and an initial wave down in progress, first target is the gap
Firstly Happy New Year to all my followers.
FTSE continues to oscillate which is typical of an ending diagonal wave.
If correct my EW count has FTSE in wave 4 blue of an ending diagonal which
may complete at the bold RED line and the end of Intermediate wave (1)
Firstly Happy New Year to all my followers!
SPX finished 2018 with a bounce as is usual given that most fund managers
will want to maximise their annual performance.
My bearish stance on stocks has not changed and I believe 2019 will continue
with this theme.
From an EW perspective I have the current bounce as minor wave 4 Blue which may be
complete or may...
Well SPX smashed through the resistance line last week and is well in its 3rd wave down.
Momentum is still down with no divergence which indicates that this 3rd wave has
some way to go yet.
I have marked a possible target zone for wave 3 at the 161 & 200% fib levels of wave (1)
Good Luck and Merry Xmas!
Well, FTSE reached my predicted target last week in the highlighted green zone and
has now reached an area of significant resistance on its way down.
Looking at RSI & Momentum one can see clear divergence and I have marked the
current low as intermediate wave (1) black.
I expect a small bounce in wave wave (2) which may start very soon given end
of 2018 is...
Update from my chart last weekend.
FTSE looks to have completed minor wave 4 blue and started its decent to complete minor
wave 5. Given that xmas is upon us and there is a lot of financial news next week I think
that wave 5 will be slow and yo-yo like, perhaps taking the form of an ending diagonal.
My target for wave 5 is somewhere in the highlighted green...
Last weekend I suggested that NDX may try to fill the open gap? in the event NDX reversed in my
highlighted zone and was rejected solidly again by the trendline which now clearly shows solid
resistance. The fall last week suggests intermediate wave may be underway and initial targets are
the support lines at 6635 and 6172 IF the last low at 6641 is...