It looks like FTSE has completed wave C of the expanded flat correction ar tge 61.8%fib retrace and on diverging momentum. If correct intermediate wave 3 shoukd start soon and pull FTSE way belw 7000.
DJI looks to be constructing an expanded flat for intermediate wave (2) which may end just above the open gap at 24683 or at the 61.6%fib retrace
at 24936. This short term update replaces my previous short term ideas BUT the longer term prognosis has not changed in that a bear market is in
progress. Good Luck
If my wavecount is correct FTSE has started intermediate wave (3) and is about to start the 3rd of 3rd wave which is usually powerful. There is a gap to fill under the major support/resistance
line and once this is broken to fill the gap I suspect the fall will accelerate. Good Luck
I note that there is a great uncertainty as to whether the 2872 top in Jan18 is the TOP or wave 3 in an ongoing bull market.
This chart attempts to show the EW count from the cycle wave IV low in feb16. The trendlines are taken from the cycle
waves going back to the 2009 low.
IMHO SPX has topped already and quickly fallen back to test the support trendline in wave...
It is interesting to see the many bullish ideas of the DJI & SPX since the recent correction.
My own view has not changed in that this correction marks the start of a much bigger correction lasting a couple of years or so.
This chart zooms in to the current correction of wave 1 Blue which I believe is taking the form of an expanded flat which may complete soon
Intermediate wave (2) finished around 10th Feb and intermediate wave (3) looks to be underway with a leading diagonal.
If correct SPX will retrace to 50 or 61.8% fib and then fall heavily in wave (3).
This 15min chart shows the detail of minor wave 1 Blue which completed close to the major 2009 Trendline. The correction looks to be taking the form
of an expanded flat which should complete at the .618 fib retrace level shown. After this Minor wave 3 will take SPX well below the 2009 trendline.
In my view FTSE completed the Supercycle Top at around 7800. FTSE has now smashed downwards through the major support line and
rebounded to hit strong resistance back at that major support line. If correct we are in wave 4 of the first 5 wave down which may complete at around 7100.
Sometimes the EW structure is NOT clear and in the case of FTSE I am struggling to come up with a valid 5th wave structure from the end of Primary wave 4 Circle.
The light blue box marks the 5th wave structure so far with a number of possible trendlines marked. My own thoughts are that the current fall is the 3rd wave
in a downwards impulse that is not yet...
I believe that SPX is now in Intermediate wave (4) which may take the form of a Triangle or Flat.
If correct Intermediate wave (5) will take SPX to new highs around 2900-3000 to complete the Primary & Cycle waves.
This is my updated idea from 2nd DEC. The DOW has thrown over the upper trendline and at the same time ATR has turned positive at the end of a triangle!
This may be an advance warning of a change in direction, large throwovers usually result in large corrections! Good Luck.
My idea from 2nd July may have been on the right track? This updated chart shows GOLD may be completing a complex C wave of a triangle correction at around 1378.
If correct GOLD will reach this level before falling in the D wave. Note that Momentum and RSI are diverging.