Volatility indices in the US spiked as Donald Trump confirmed that he and his wife tested positive for COVID-19. A stimulus deal is yet to be reached with the possibility of Congress going into recess until after the election. It is important to know that failure to reach an agreement by tonight will lead to a downward spiral for the equity markets. American...
The EURO is best placed to take advantage of DXY strength after breaking out of bullish 🐂 pattern that held for weeks as hedge funds take profits and printing a bearish pattern on the Daily time frame. Gains this week can be explained by last week's CFTC COT Report update. Short positions increased to 58k just as the long positions increased to 247k. Moving...
The New Zealand Dollar has been weak lately and a retracement was expected. However, NZD doesn't seem to have the strength needed for the pullback compared to the EURO & AUD pairs. I'll be closely looking at the price action as a stronger USD is enough to push the currency lower.
From a Technical perspective, the DXY has been weak as expected. It is currently testing a strong level of support. A confluence of factors is expected to hold the DXY above this support zone. A breach would lead to further losses after the DXY recorded the worst quarter in years. From a fundamental perspective, this week's losses can be attributed to gains in the...
So, tonight is the last day of Q3. We're heading to New quarterly reports - both corporate earnings and economic related reports, starting tomorrow. The market seems unbothered with the the S&P500, which is a crucial benchmark index, hunting for the February 2020 high as it tries to close the quarter on a high. It leaves me with questions. 1. What warrants this...
Last week, the CFTC COT report shows that further long positions were closed. Net positions stood at 241k. I expect further more long positions to be closed this week. I'm hoping to capitalize on the downward price movement if a valid bearish trade entry confirmation is found from now on.
Again, this is a crazy time to be in the markets. We could experience markets on steroids in the coming months. Therefore, the kind of trader you are - risk averse, Neutral or loving - may determine how you actually approach the markets. This is how I'll be looking at the DXY in the coming week. The FED, Monetary, Fiscal Policies & US Elections Factor The...
The Lira is under pressure even after the Central Bank of Turkey hiked its benchmark one-week repo rate by 200 bps to 10.25 percent during its September meeting, surprising markets that had forecast the rate to remain unchanged. Policymakers said the decision aims to restore the disinflation process and support price stability as the lira has hit an all-time low....
Last week's CFTC Commitments of Traders shows that a large number of long positions in NASDAQ 100 remain open. In addition to this, the US Money Supply M1 increased last week. This supports why the price has rejected a strong level of support from the July High. Sentiment still remains bullish as retail traders still trying to buy the dips. There are two...
Price Action for both XAUUSD & XAUEUR hasn't shown any interest in creating a retracement to test the previous support levels turned resistance. Bulls are currently defending the last levels of support for the two. Breach of these zones will open up further losses. In the CFTC report, XAUUSD has had close to 20k long positions closed. This implies that hedge funds...
Interesting week ahead for the global economy/markets Data releases include US jobs report. Central bank focus on FED officials' remarks seeking to regain the narrative of responsiveness and effectiveness; @ECB commentary is worsening and Covid situation darkens economic outlook All this will be a catalyst for the hold above the trend line or a fall.
The EURO had a breakout below the trend line, support level and parabolic channel in the lower chart timeframes. How will I be approaching the EURO in the coming weeks? Coronavirus Factor First, it's important to note that Europe is officially in the second wave of the COVID19 PANDEMIC. Parts of Madrid could be under a second lockdown and this might be...
Speculators seem frustrated that the Euro is not rising any further. Hedge Funds and other big institutions cut their bullish Euro bets by a whopping 9.3%. EUR net long positions now at 178,576, lowest since July. Technically, that could be a possible rounded top reversal pattern.
Seems GC1! failed to break above the resistance and a trendline following the FED meeting on Wednesday. I expect gold to test the support at 1900 or the trendline. It is important to note that the price is still ranging. Despite a retracement by the DXY after the news, GC1! has maintained a neutral tone
The DXY has been on a selling spree of late. Today, Powell said that it will take time to achieve the inflation target and that it will maintain its asset purchase program which stands at US$ 1.4 TRILLION per year. The balance sheet exceeds US$ 7 trillion which has never been witnessed before. When Powell was asked about the FEDs QE, he said that the current...
Price is currently breaching a trend line connecting two major pivot lows of 2020. If the daily candle closes below the July pivot Low, it could open up the March pivot Low 🎯. It's important to note that the pair is still within a descending flat-bottomed pattern (descending triangle). The JPY is expected to be strong with the candidate best positioned to succeed...
After piercing through a resistance area last week, it is currently testing this level which is now a support. The level is in confluence with the fibonacci retracement at the 0.382 to 0.5 levels. The pair is expected to complete last week's impulse. A higher target remains in sight in the medium term. The 💶 has faced massive buying of long positions by...
The Cable has deccelerated into a resistance zone. I will be looking for a selling opportunity within this zone. A possible messy Brexit also weighs heavily on the GBP