The gap open higher today filled a gap from the COVID crash earlier this year. The minimum waves can be counted in place to consider this retracement higher as terminated. With such a count in hand, don't rush out to short. Let the market confirm to you that a top may be in. Wait for lower levels to break. If today's gap fills (tan box), it indicates a swing...
Longer term top may have formed in gold earlier this week. We sent an alert to subscribers on Tues May 19 with a full analysis and entry points with risk. The up trend since 2015 is a double zigzag pattern labeled w-x-y. I can count the minimum waves in place at the May 19 high. A lot of harmony is found within the w-x-y waves and subwaves. Prices are sitting...
Hugely bullish and hugely bearish Elliott Wave patterns in the longer term are still on the table. The rally after halvening this week didn't eliminate or elevate several competing options. So long as Bitcoin price remains above 7454 this competition of wave counts remain. Below 7,454 we can begin to focus on a much deeper correction taking place. What do you...
Silver is camped on top of the 78.6% retracement level -- this level is rooted within the fibonacci sequence and is considered the retracement of last resort. The up trend from March breaks down as a double zigzag in Elliott Wave terms, this is a corrective structure implying that the whole trend is likely to be retraced at some point in the future. I prefer...
Chart on the left suggests we are in wave iv of C (ending diagonal)...one more dip lower to retest today's low to finish off the bearish sequence then we may see a strong rally. The chart on the right is a more traditional impulse and is one wave slower...so two more dips lower to finish off C then a strong rally. Trend lines support a hold below the April 7...
Broadly speaking USD may strengthen so will GBPUSD be the outlier and GBP becomes stronger than USD? We have an impulse off the 1.14 lows which suggests another run higher while holding above 1.20. A couple more gyrations near current pricing so Cable may drift lower near term. If this is correct, there could be some interesting cross pair trades being bullish...
Bitcoin's recent rejection at trend line resistance suggests a round of selling my be on hand. Though medium term elliott wave counts can be viewed as bullish or bearish, multiple models point to a correction in price back to 5000-7400. From there, the models diverge. Therefore, keep an eye on the structure of the decline, should it develop. Its been a while...
Last week's low generated a lower low so now we can apply some technical analysis to pick up some clues. It appears the bounce beginning Dec 22 is in zigzag form. Most Elliott Wave zigag patterns at this point are considered corrective and hints at a 11,500 or possibly 10,000 retest. There is a small chance this is the beginning of a diagonal which is short...
The Elliott Wave model we have been following is that EURUSD is incomplete to the upside. In our September 4 report , we forecasted a "shallow correction back to the 1.16 handle." Now that prices have reached that level, it confirms the fourth wave is progressing as anticipated. We still are not sure of the shape, depth, and structure as we have 2 options...
Here we see an Elliott Wave count for GBPUSD. The market appears to be in a terminal wave at multiple degrees of trend. Once the minor 5 wave impulse higher completes (we appear to beginning iv now), then the market will be at risk of reversal. There are other wave relationships appearing in the 1.3450 price zone. I don't know if it will get that high, but a...
USDCAD Elliott Wave pattern looks incomplete to the upside. We are anticipating dips may be supported as the 5 wave impulse finishes to the upside. Once the 5 waves are in place, then we will be anticipating a longer term top that could set up a large short trade (that is another post for another day). For now, let's track the impulse higher. It appears we are...
Crude oil is approaching the neckline of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. If this pattern plays out, it suggest much higher prices for crude. When you consider that the Greenback has been mildly strong lately AND crude has advanced at the same time, this suggests some bullish undertones building below the surface. The Elliott Wave picture looks...
Warning lights are flashing trouble ahead for DJIA. A move below the October 7 low would also punch below the blue support line and hint at further losses towards 17,000. As an aside, I am also watching a potential Elliott Wave triangle which we are in the 'D' leg. This would suggest another bump higher that holds below 18,450 followed by an aggressive dump in...
USDJPY appears to be putting in the finishing touches to a corrective move lower. We can see an elliott wave impulsive move higher followed by what appears to be an a-b-c expanded flat correction. We can use wave measurements to gauge higher probability areas where blue wave 'c' may terminate. 3 areas I'm watching: 104.63 = wave 'a' low 103.90 = 38.2%...
Yesterday, DJIA dropped into a potential reversal zone. This sets up a long opportunity and allows us to maintain a bullish bias. The 5 wave move from Feb 11 to April 20 allows us to maintain the bullish bias as only 50% of the uptrend has been retraced...that is after what is supposed to be a bearish outcome to the Brexit vote! This suggests that the ultimate...
We have been tracking a potential ending diagonal pattern in EURUSD that suggests a retest of 1.17. This Elliott Wave pattern is running out of real estate to the downside to still remain valid. Therefore, if it is going to remain valid, prices will need to rally soon. As it stands, the labels I'm following currently place us in wave (b) of ((v)) in the ending...
In about 3-4 hours, the Reserve Bank of Australia brings their latest round of monetary policy to the market with their rate announcement. The expectation is for the rate to hold steady. We don't know how the market is going to react so let's establish a game plan prior to the release. Checking in with the Elliott Wave analysis, it appears as though a longer...
This is a shorter term look a few hours in advance of the ECB meeting Thurs morning and NFP Friday morning. For the medium term look, see the 4 hour chart on the link below. Bottom line, Elliott wave counts still point to higher levels. Below 1.1150 to 1.1050 the bullish view is stressed but still alive. I can stuff a bearish count into the picture, but 1.1250...