Tomorrow morning at 8:30a ET, the US Non Farm Payroll report is scheduled to be released. This could impact the EURUSD as the USD has been strengthening on the heels of a strong payroll report in November. With today's post -ECB move knocking on the door of 1.1090, we have a critical level of which we can consider trading around. First off, if prices remain...
We have major news coming out later this morning and tomorrow that could dramatically effect EUR/USD. This post is made in advance of the news to establish a plan prior to emotions running high during the potentially volatile events. The Elliott Wave count appears mature to the down side. The sloppy and overlapping continuation lower over the past 2 weeks...
EURUSD dropped today into a zone that likely creates a strong struggle between bulls and bears. The Elliott Wave picture is such that there is a bullish view and bearish view which both can be satisfied based on the current pricing. Therefore a meaningful push below 1.0800 or above 1.0950 begins to elevate certain patterns and demote other patterns. Bearish...
The Elliott Wave picture for the EURUSD indicates there is a higher probability bounce coming. The trend is down, so for those traders who missed out on this move lower will get a shot to short from higher levels. Under the preferred interpretation, it appears we are finalizing the 5th wave lower from the October 15 high. 3 different wave relationships show up...
The pivot lower in the GBPJPY has been on the back burner as the EURUSD collapsed last week. It appears we have a leading diagonal lower in circle '1' that began on the Friday October 23 high. Coincidentally, we are showing Oct 23 as the highest volume day in over 5 years for the GBPJPY. If circle wave '3' finished at today's low, then a small bounce higher is...
With the ECB prepared to announce their next round of genious analysis and monetary policy tomorrow morning, let's take a moment and assess the Elliott Wave picture for EURUSD. As we will do from time to time, we'll identify key levels to watch prior to news being released to establish the game plan before emotions run high. From a bigger picture, the sell off...
USDJPY has been stuck in a sideways consolidation. The move off the October 2 NFP low has an impulsive 5 wave look to it. The resulting correction lower from Oct 5 to today landed at a confluence of wave relationships near 119.40. We are seeing this reaction at 119.40 and one potential outcome in Elliott Wave Theory is for a drive higher to 120.50-121.30. ...
This pop higher on the Fed minutes may be enough to put the finishing touches on a minor corrective wave higher. There is a confluence of wave relationships near 1.1308-1.1340. 61.8% of the Sept 18-22 down trend = 1.1323 (c) = (a) = 1.1317 Blue corrective channel trend line = 1.1340 Wave y = .618 * w = 1.1308 Therefore, we are anticipating another down...
Gold has a couple of bullish interpretations listed below. Before I get into them, even though this piece is about 2 bullish interpretations, the market can prove both of them wrong so please don't expect this to be 100% correct...nobody has that magic wand in their hand. The preferred count is the wave 3 higher written about 2 weeks ago is still alive, albeit...
The Elliott Wave picture on the USDJPY is slowly clearing up. It appears the Elliott Wave triangle terminated on Sept 25. It is common to see the 'e' wave of the triangle break the a-c line (the red line) while holding below the wave 'c' extreme. Subsequent that rejection, we have a 5 wave sell off that cleanly matches up and holds many wave relationships of an...
Last week, we touched on 1.5650 being the maximum price zone that would keep this bearish wave 3 count alive. Lo and behold, the nerves were tested this morning as price hung out near 1.5650 for a couple hours. There were 3 points intersecting near 1.5650. • Wave c = wave a = 1.5640 • 78.6% retracement of the August to September sell off = 1.5674 • Wave (ii) =...
We wrote a couple weeks back on Gold breaking out to the upside. After giving the market a few days to develop its waves, it appears a bullish 5-3 sequence has unfolded to the upside. This presents a higher probability scenario that we may see at least one more 5 wave sequence higher. That means we probably have room to $1190 if not higher based on the longer...
The sell off from this morning has popped outside of the purple channel. Therefore, it appears to be a smaller degree wave 'x' and we are working on a wave 'y' higher. Based on wave relationships, this places a potential reaction zone in the 1.14-1.15 area. This runs a similar pattern to the GBPUSD we wrote about last week. Traders can place their risk above...
The GBP/AUD has caught my eye. Prices have been contained inside a nice rising support channel. Yesterday, that channel was tested which establishes a low point for us to consider breakout trades to sell. Zooming out, there is a confluence of wave relationships in 2.20-2.22 from 2 different sources. 1) 61.8% retacement from the 2008 high to the 2013 low 2) ...
Please read this post while also reviewing the intraday GBPUSD posted earlier today. This post on the Daily Chart shows an alternate bullish view. My preference is the 3rd wave bearish view listed on the 180 min chart, but we need to keep this one in mind as well. A meaningful push above 1.5650 will elevate this count on route to a 1.6000 retest. I have noted...
The previous 2 down waves for Sterling appear to be impulsive. This sets up a bearish scenario that we’ll look to position for. The main EW count shown on the chart above suggests we are grinding higher in a wave (ii). This should be a partial retracement that likely terminates below 1.5650. The sweet spot of a reversal is in the 1.5500 area. If prices are...
As we approach major news events, one exercise I like to do is assess the possible wave picture before the event so when the volatility of the event hits, I'm mentally prepared with a plan. For anybody that has traded for a while, we've been caught in 'chasing' mode during a volatile news event countless times and it is no fun. What strikes me is that Thursday's...
The USDJPY chart is looking quite similar to the SPX500 chart. The wave picture appears incomplete to the downside. The current upward push terminated at a former swing low and is within the bounds of a 38-50% retracement of the preceeding 3rd wave. Therefore, we are anticipating a fifth wave lower to retest Monday's low near 116. Here are the internals we...