Consider this as the rising wedge in the long term downtrend or in the latest short term uptrend - whatever. Both mean 'sell'. Market is clearly exhausted/overbought. Moreover, there's a strong bearish divergence with MACD and other oscillators. First target 1.152, second = 1.143. Stop loss just above the last top (~1.163). Good luck.
Buy EURUSD as follows:
A) 1st target 1.1830 SL 1.1390
B) Open the counter-position above 1.18 with target 1.1630
C) Buy again on pullback to 0.382 Fibo level (~1.1590-1.1620) with target 2 = 1.2150
BTW upper (red) trend line should be drawn a bit lower on my chart - not a big deal
The price is approaching levels suitable for taking short positions. Yearly Pivot/Resistance 1 is right above 1.6210 and it's just a few pips above the target of the large AB=CD structure.
Entry level = 1.6210;
Target 1 = 1.60 (round number);
Target 2 = 1.5910 (50% retracement level)
Stop Loss = 1.6270.
Good night and good luck.
USDCAD just reached former resistance level and the top of the rising channel/trend line simultaneously. If it won't break them, it'll be good opportunity for taking short position. Entry level 1.33300, first target 1.31, second target 1.2970. SL @1.3410. You can just put your position (if you have good equity) or wait for reversal pattern on lower TF. Be aware...
Wait for potential pullback after tonight's release of the New Zealand CPI and Australian employment data or buy at the current market price. Stop loss should be just below last low (and the trend line).
AUDUSD is approaching the main trend line (plotted on weekly chart) which hold since the beginning of 2016 so far. At the same level there's a target of the medium scale AB=CD pattern (plotted from the last top). Stay tuned, switch to lower TF and buy only if the trend line will hold.
Strong bearish divergence on MACD on daily chart has been formed. In recent years such a divergence always preceded medium term trend change or large correction. I'm selling EURUSD from this point with no SL due to very good swaps (rollovers) on short positions. Be prepared for one more spike up (so-called 'SL hunting' or 'Wash & Rinse') on Thursday, thus don't...
AUDUSD is falling and just touched 100% AB=CD target level which is in confluence with previous strong support level from November 2016 from which AUD bounced after selloff caused by Trump election. After a solid 200 pip drop I expect a short term correction of size equal to previous ones (see chart). But there could be also just a small bounce then further drop...
NZD is dropping fast, but is approaching the zone which served several times as a support. Moreover, this zone includes three important levels: last flag target (or AB=CD target if you prefer), 0.786 Fibo level of retracement of Trump unwind rally and last but not least - big round number 0.7000. Switch to lower timeframe and wait for any sign of price reversal.
NZDUSD currently testing two important levels: 2016 support and big H&S neckline. In case of breakout, first target is yearly pivot ~0.697, second one - H&S target ~0.662 or previous important low ~0.669. Big bearish divergence and highly possible US rate hike are in my favor. Wait for breakout or sell now if you can afford such a loss.
GBPUSD is breaking above a declining trendline that may become support again. Large H&S pattern is still valid, its target coincides with yearly pivot point @1.507. GBP won't decline despite worse than expected job data, Brexit polls shifting in favour of 'remain', COT data - everything looks bullish for GBP at the moment.
Entry/target levels similar to those from attached idea, but based on Fibo levels. AUDUSD has bullish momentum, previous top from 04.02 taken, I think we're on the way to ~0.74 once again. This will form nice ABCD pattern, AB=CD. Enter on next pullback to 0.719 or 0.715. TP1 = 0.729, TP2 = 0.739
I expect EURUSD turning point and rally from @~1.1060 along with slow GBP appreciation. Thus we can get 3D sell pattern on EURGBP. Watch low timeframe charts and enter @~.766 with TP1 @0.7888 and TP2 @0.7988. Drop below 0.7525 invalidates bullish scenario. There's a nice area of confluence right below .80 psychical level. Next trade will be short right below 0.80.
This rising channel line is in play since mid-March. Next week I expect small correction of EUR rally first, i.e. to 1.125 (EURUSD), so you can short EURAUD if the price doesn't break out the channel immediately. It can fall to 1.53 or 1.52 depending on AUD behaviour. Be careful - this is a fast-mover, and AUD has room to 0.717 to fall.
In my opinion bullish scenario is more probably since US rate hike was postponed to mid-September at least, but we had already 5 swings inside the big wedge. 1.1170, 1.1400/10 and 1.1530 are now crucial levels to watch for taking long positions on retest of broken levels. If price breaks 1.0980 first (3 days price closes below or retest of broken level then down)...
I just noticed that AUDNZD rally was rejected today exactly at 0.618 extension of first long leg from 1.00* to 1.08* and pullback to 1.05* plus next round number 1.11. Previously there was no reaction to psychological 1.10 level.
After such a long and fast rally I expected 3D sell or other pattern and deep correction but it was distorted by latest RBNZ decision...