With everyone expecting big moves all too often, the reality is that BTC is a quite boring asset over 90% of the time. Most interesting and strong moves happen in a very short period of time, and it can go sideways for much longer than we would all like. We now will have to see if we get a fractal similarity to 2016, where we had a very long flat period of quite...
Here is an interesting observation. Did anyone notice how astoundingly similar the whole structure for this last rally to 14k and up to the current correction looks in the 4h chart, compared to the whole 2018 structure in the daily? This is quite fascinating, and might indicate that actually a bottom structure is forming. Everyone is expecting a drop to 6k,...
So this time the bearishness was 100% justified, lol. Not much to add here, the next strong support zone is the 6k area, volume profile shows strong support at around 6300. We should see a strong bounce there, stabilizing, and then starting to creep upwards again by the end of the year.
So I predicted a long sideways already months ago, when people were drawing giant arrows up or down. The reality is that bitcoin can be a surprisingly boring asset most of the time. It likes doing these plateau structures, since basically the beginning. Huge action and volume for a few weeks, then months of extreme boringness and low volume. Leading of course...
So this boring sideways phase of BTC is really testing our patience. But for how much longer can it go on? Well, if look at historical situations where we had very similar structures, this already happened twice. The first time in 2012, and then in late 2015/early 2016. Two things are happening which point to the timeframe where a breakout will happen with a very...
So it seems that BTC is not doing the gold chart fractal. It is now almost certainly ivalidated. Instead, it does what it always liked to do best: Long plateaus after a small pre-rally. This rally from 3k to 14k was really similar to the one in mid 2012, and the one in late 2015/early 2016. And every time after such runups, btc like to relax for a long...
A quick comparison to 2012 shows that BTC will probably go sideways for a long time, and could dump down to the 9000 area. It will probably hit the weekly middle bband at some point, as back in 2012. This would also align with the halving timing, and the stock flow model, etc, showing the ATH to be reached in 2021. Should it now suddenly pump and go past 13.9k,...
If BTC decides to take the slower route, which I really hope, we could see some months of sideways action. The other possibility would be the gold fractal, if it now pushes through 13.9k. I however hope for this sceario here, because this would allow all indicators to cool off, then having more steam for the next push where BTC will attack the old ATH. And the...
I had previously drawn scenarios where BTC would take the "normal" route that we all know, where we'd see the All time high, sometime after the bitcoin halving. But because this time BTC is half a year faster in the cycle than back in 2015/16, we would see the ATH already by late 2020, or early 2021. However, as I posted previously, if BTC decides to do the gold...
With all the giant arrows pointing either upwards or downwards, what if BTC surprises us with boringness/sideways action? Quite similar to 2016 when BTC did these longer plateau phases after every runup. The daily MA200 is rising, already at 6400, we also have strong volume profile supports at 8.1k and 6.4k. If BTC doesn't push on soon, then the gold fractal...
Depending on which route BTC will like to take now, we will see different heights of the new All time high. The resistance is curved as we know, because BTC at some point left the exponential growth channel. Of course, at some point it could decide to change this longterm behavior, but until now, based on historical data, it is reasonable to assume that this...
Every time we look at the monthly BTC chart, we learn some interesting stuff regarding the longer timeframe development of BTC. For example we can clearly see that we have entered the bullmarket now, because the monthly Stoch RSI is now on overbought, and normally remains there 1-2 years. This is historical behavior, of which I think that BTC will not just...
XRPBTC is falling as I predicted here: Now, many are waiting for the big ripple breakout. When will XRP finally start to follow BTC? Well, if we look at the volume profile and the big falling (bullish) wedge, we see that there are basically two very important support zones. The 1st one is reight now at this very level, at 2900 sats. If we don't get a strong...
A while ago I did a fractal comparison between BTC and gold, because a few people here on TV and me noticed the incredible fractal similarity between the BTC behavior and the gold behavior. Of course, the timescale for gold is far greater, since gold has a much higher marketcap, thus doing everything much slower. But in principle, the charts look really...
Not much to say here. BTC seems to be consolidating again, the dump everyone is waiting for probably not materializing, instead BTC just brutally pushing on. We can however dip lower first, before resuming the uptrend, and forming this nice wedge here. Watch for a break below support, this would invalidate the trading setup. If BTC stays within this wedge, I see...
Recently I published a chart, that was admittedly not drawn too nicely. I didn't have enough coffee, ok?! This time I learned my lesson, and fueled up with a good dosage of caffeine before starting to draw some lines and curves, hehe :) Anyways, I would want to talk about the complete Elliott wave picture of BTC since it started trading back in 2010 at...
So I was thinking for a long time about this current move of BTC. WTF is BTC doing here, it should still "rest" in 2019 and start the bigger upmoves in early 2020, a few months before the halving. Instead, we are already now apparently pushing for higher highs, and are not too far away from ATH any more. And BTC? Still no sign of a larger correction. I hoped...
Contrary to some uber ripple shills, I personally don't really like ripple. It's centralized, and stands for everything which I basically don't like. However, I can't deny the brutal pumping potential behind this coin. In the past, it always was one of the best performing coins. However, I am pretty convinved that it will NOT pump in 2019. 2019 is accumulation...