The_black_swan

The_black_swan Updated 

The white vertical line is Jan 09. The white horizontal line is my personal estimation for a ceiling in price and adoption. The blue lines are my personal extrapolation of the range using historical peaks and dips. A stabilization between 100 000 and 200 000 $ would put Bitcoin between 2 - 4 trillion $ market cap. This would be relatively small compared to global...

The_black_swan

Hi everyone, Last chart I published was an 8-years forecast in 2018 which played out well, so far... But I think it will soon become wrong. The pandemic and its monetary and economic consequences boosted bitcoin much more than what could have been expected a few years ago. Money printing, large scale public buys, and on-chain data all point to btc being ripe...

The_black_swan

BTC has a nice habit of drawing elegant geometric curves, and my guess is that this one has a good chance of dropping along this red curve. I would tend to call the overall move a bear trap, let's see.

The_black_swan

The main reason for this forecast is that we are reproducing in a subtle, but quite close manner, the beginning of the bull market in 2015-16. Btc had a strong push in Oct-Nov 2016, and behaved in a similar fashion as now, where it is consolidating at a rather high level, like it did in Dec-Jan 2015-16. What happened after that, 3 years ago, is that major alts,...

The_black_swan

This is a bold prediction. I have some gut feeling that this market has to surprise everyone, and in a grandiose way as usual. Feeling that we might not be done yet with our parabolic move I have two meta arguments for this prediction: 1. It would create extreme fomo and by selling around 40k, when everyone will expect 100k+, the whales orchestrating this move...

The_black_swan Updated 

In case you have not seen my last post 2 weeks ago, I have been totally wrong. I predicted a pull back to 4k, and the contrary happened. So why do I predict 10-12k now? Well, there is new info to my point of view. Before I get into this, I want to say that all that is very exciting because, first, the alts will probably pick up the profits of btc when it will...

The_black_swan

Hi everyone, After the sharp drop of last year, I haven't had a scenario in mind for what followed, so I have not published anything since November. And that's good because I didn't expect such a strong reversal to 5k. I have now a scenario in mind for the next few months and the main reason for that is that we have now a range defined by the local bottom at...

The_black_swan

The idea behind this prediction is that we may overshoot downward, the same way we overshot in Feb, before ranging. Such an overshoot and a panic sell would be a great opportunity for a mid term buy, the same way that it was a great buy in Feb at 6k. If this happens we need to see high volume like shown by the arrow. Again, if possible, as much as in Feb. However,...

The_black_swan Updated 

My August-September-October forecast played out rather good, and nothing as changed since then, in terms of fundamentals. In terms of technicals, the violent Tether-related action on Bitfinex might just give a little bullishness for the next few days, but nothing more in my opinion. The fundamentals will pick up eventually, THIS MARKET NEEDS A FLUSH. I sum up my...

The_black_swan Updated 

We are currently seeing the third bounce in 2018 from the 5-6k levels. I expect the current rally to make a lower high compared to March, which was itself a lower high compared to May Maybe we go down after trying to reach the 200 dailyMA a second time around 8100. On a pure technical point of view, the chart is totally bearish: 1. we have lower highs and lower...

The_black_swan Updated 

Timing is the hardest part, but one thing is almost sure, the crypto market is going to crash. As I already mentioned in my previous forecasts, my method is: 1. extract data from the web that tell what is the general trend and how strong is this trend. 2. fit this trend into the chart with a little bit of TA and volume analysis. 3. use the volume profile tool to...

The_black_swan Updated 

This downtrend resistance is too oppressing, and would lead BTC to very low levels (1K - 4K) in a matter of weeks, which is unrealistic. BTC may very well reach these low levels (1K - 4K), but such a gloomy market sentiment, if it comes, would take months to set, not weeks. At the moment. volatility is decreasing. So, a strong sell down to 4K, right now seems...

The_black_swan Updated 

I think the title says it all..))

The_black_swan

This 4200 target may be the bottom of this bubble. Depending on how things go in the few weeks following this 4200 low and a rebound, obviously, I would not be surprised to publish, a new lower target around 3000. If this 3000 low happens, I think I will likely consider it as the overall low of this bubble.