lets go silver
i suggest hopping in your time machine and re-examining 1997 thailand or 1989 japan. both sterilization schemes ultimately failed especially when their real-estate market buckled. in order to support the sterilization measures the chinese must borrow dollars in order to devalue their currency. there's a shortage of dollars meaning the likelihood of buckling is a...
all relates to interest differentials and the cross currents of the need to print before the clock runs out. as we've seen china is loosing control of the currency. when their currency weakens their peg partners strengthen... that being said when you weaken your currency you import inflation, however you export deflation. if we dont make drastic moves to weaken in...
opec... yea bad actors all of them cooperating. extremely unlikely based on past cooperation agreements. refinery utilization the main reason opec is sounding the alarm. this push and pull will take time to come to a head
what will the grains show? could we possibly see a change in consumer behavior? i still think based on the crush hogs still have a little ways to go. the crush shows feed prices vs hogs the hypothetical cost to grow a hog/bring to slaughter
overnight data suggesting, the white dwarf is about to turn supernova. theyre beginning to loose control over their currency due to the necessity for dollars for sterilization measures, but dollars are scarce
What's happening is a liquidity trap globally. Bonds are trying to convince Powell he needs to be dovish in order to maintain control of the dollar. The trade situation is damning because when you devalue you import inflation (chart showing run away inflation in China) you export deflation (prices, wages, and consumer behavior). Powell is a volcker fan boy if he...
Erm?! Powell reigns from the school of hard knocks he's conditioned/ a Paul volcker fan boy. Traditionally when inflation is the problem yes there's a time to tilt hawkish in this scenario disinflation is the problem. If they come out swinging in the mins.. it'll be a drastic mistake. If they don't suggest a rate cut as the fed funds rates are suggesting this will...
ill leave it at that ive expressed my views on what is likely to happen when you devalue your currency. lets see if we get fact or fiction
failure to bounce.. will the market follow i say yes
realized vol has already shifted and setup a new base of operations. the coiling will contract volatility but the faster it contracts to reach the quicker the response. also bond volatility/economic data will guide the path ahead. to take advantage of vol-vol. im taking a bullish duration premium selling posture
seeing a price volume and osc divergence. im under the assumption of positive talks on the way?
theres a short amount of time to defuse the bomb. bonds and fic are reflecting the reality of the situation in china ie. when china devalues they import inflation and export deflation. hawkish retoric needs to calm down if anything we need dovish language, the pboc needs to step in and get their currency below the red line, and the 10 year note auction needs to go...
inventories rise more than expected, refinery utilization will adjust to meet demand. when supply outweighs demand price falls. very related to described moves in china. when they devalue. they import inflation but export deflation to the rest of the world
you dont need fancy indicators. just pay attention to price vs volume. price movement with volume confirmation.
bullard coming out hawkish, brainard uncertain about uncertainty. yea should be a fun ride
cold wars can turn hot. why are things happening in hong kong. the devaluation implication means the buying power of the people have been lost. by devaluing you import inflation (loss of buying power) and export deflation (gaining of buying power) psychologically this has influenced the rise in dollar, but the blow-back has been growing instability in china. if...