I find these periods the most interesting to write about the market - peak uncertainty. This is a speculative analysis to show why this moment might be a very good risk-reduction opportunity. As shown on the above chart, when Bitcoin dominance (lower panel) touches the 50 week MA (red), it can indicate a decisive move for Bitcoin to come. If Dominance rejects here...
It's been a while since I posted an update on NANO. You can see the links below for previous posts on NANO, where you can see the historical price chart (not currently viewable). NANO is still one of my favorite cryptocurrencies, despite remaining in a clear downtrend and breaking the established uptrend from the previous bull market. Oddly enough, I'm actually...
In this analysis, I try to provide a balanced view of what's happening with Bitcoin, crypto, AMZN, Uranium, and weed. Hope you enjoy! Thanks for watching. As always, this is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not as financial advice. -Victor Cobra
Last summer, I made an analysis showing the ratio of Bitcoin/SPX to illustrate how Bitcoin has performed as an investment compared with traditional markets. Here's the original post: Since then, Bitcoin has still performed decently well against traditional markets, after bouncing from the trendline. Interestingly, BTC tested the previous all-time high against...
This is a fairly simple post. Above, you can see that every time Litecoin has broken below the middle orange trendline, it has continued towards the lower trendline. If this continues to be the case, it is like the bottom is not in for the cryptocurrency market. The weekly oscillator (red at bottom) looks incredibly weak. Perhaps on a positive note, LTC might...
In 2019-2020, I managed to nail the long term top for Bitcoin dominance. Here's the original analysis: Since I accumulated altcoins during the last bear market, I still did significantly better than had I just bought Bitcoin. Some of course did much better than others. But now that I'm scaling out of the market, my strategy is much different. I hold no more...
Just a quick trade idea. Seems to be a decent r/r for me. Here's the structure zoomed in. Entry was around $0.74, targeting the bottom of the big channel structure, with an initial stop near 0.70. and the descending triangle support. XRP has some historical support down near $0.40 and then at $0.32. If the crypto market is going to break down further, I...
I've been talking about a longer term bear market for equities for three years now, yet markets continue up. Everyone calling for a big crash keeps getting mocked. This actually happened prior to 1929 - many people kept on warning of a crash, but things just kept going up up up. Anyway, on the top, you can see the Dow Jones divided by M2 (cash). On the bottom,...
In this video, I first talk a little bit about my recent experience day trading during the chop. I talk about LUNA, BTC, and ETH as well. I also touch a bit on traditional markets. That's it for this week. I am putting together an email list per request from viewers, so please reach out if you would like to be added. This is not meant as financial advice. This...
It's looking pretty good. Although I was thinking markets could see one final blow-off top, this is looking like less of a possibility at the moment. The bearish narrative has pretty much set in. Although shorts can be squeezed, I think it's likely the market will fail to find buyers at higher prices and get heavily rejected. Will it play out exactly like this?...
Not quite. As I mentioned in my recent videos, the buyer volume off the recent low during the Ukraine invasion dump was promising. People have been shorting for weeks, so it's about time those people start to get liquidated. There also appears to be organic buying, as funding for futures has largely remained negative. Speculative traders and gamblers have left,...
Finally! A couple of weeks ago I recorded a video, but there was an error when uploading and it was deleted. So here we are now. Thank you for watching! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
Here's part 2! I realize I forgot to talk about Bitcoin dominance, even though I spoke about ETH/BTC in my previous video. So here's the Bitcoin dominance chart: In a bearish scenario for the market, I expect dominance to head back towards 50% and above. Stablecoins are an interesting variable, however. If there is a rise in demand for stablecoins, they may skew...
For some reason, I can't get TradingView to hide my lines on the charts above when I publish, so I'll just share a screenshot here: It's been a while since I posted one of these. As I mentioned in my recent post, how Bitcoin reacts as it approaches the 50 week MA should be very telling. As I look at TOTAL (the total cryptocurrency market cap), it seems to be...
Finally, the market is showing some signs of a short term bottom. As I mentioned in my last video, volume has shown that buyers have finally shown up. However, I am still medium-term to long-term bearish until Bitcoin can break above the 50 week MA again (red). As shown on the left side of the chart, Bitcoin had some substantial bounces in 2018 that were met with...
This is just a quick update to my ETH chart. I've taken more time off from the market recently to focus on some other things, such as finishing up my master's program. It seems the lower low went lower than I was expecting (I was thinking $2800 first, then a retest of the downtrend). Instead, ETH broke down all the way towards $2k and is finally experiencing a...
In this video, I talk about what's going on in the market, including Bitcoin Dominance. I also talk about investing in "substance" and why crypto (in its current state) does not fit this form. This is not meant to be financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
In this video, I explain why I've become more bearish on the cryptocurrency market. I also talk a little about stocks, Microstrategy, and about bubble-like behavior. Of course, there is always the possibility that my bearish view will get invalidated. It took a lot for me to get here, so perhaps the market has just broken me :) It wasn't easy for me to become...