I have to make this quick, since I am already behind on coursework and it's not even halfway through the semester. This is a follow-up to my never-ending, strange attachment to Litecoin. Earlier this year, I projected all-time-high prices for LTC, but it was only able to touch the $420 price briefly before dropping like a rock. Here's that analysis: But I like...
On the left, I have drawn two different speculative scenarios for Bitcoin, using the log curve and the log channel to guide price action. Both scenarios are pretty optimistic, as they show Bitcoin breaking the bounds of the log curve and heading towards the top of the channel. In the blue scenario, Bitcoin becomes a more widespread antidote to inflation and...
As I've stated in my recent posts, I think we're inching closer to peak market euphoria for crypto. Does this mean I think the top is in? Not necessarily. But it does mean that my bias is switching to selling, rather than buying. As I dollar-cost-averaged in during the bear market, I plan to scale out soon. I think this current crypto bubble is much more similar...
This is a quick post to show where optimal "buy in" points occurred during Bitcoin's last parabolic run, as well as when it started to really look like BTC price was losing momentum. I don't think Moving Averages are great in necessarily predicting where price will go, but I do think they're a useful tool for assessing momentum. When upside momentum is strong, the...
This is a simple study to illustrate something I've been using as a metric for a while. For those who do not know, in basic terms: Positive funding means that long positions are paying to hold their positions. Negative funding means that shorts are paying to hold their positions. This can be reflected in a positive or negative premium, or price difference from...
An oldie but goodie, Stellar continues to chug along in the crypto space. Back in the Spring, I speculated that we could see XLM reach a new ATH before Bitcoin began correcting, but this was unfortunately not the case. I did, however, manage to nail the bottom on this one during the previous bear market. Some of those posts are linked at bottom. Here's the main...
In this video, I cover Bitcoin, Bitcoin Dominance, Ethereum, XLM, VET, SHIB, NEO, NANO, ADA, and LTC. Hope you enjoy! Thanks for watching, and for your support. This is not meant as financial advice - it is for speculation and entertainment. -Victor Cobra
I posted an analysis a few weeks ago explaining why I thought we were unlikely to see a sustained rally for Bitcoin unless Bitcoin dominance increases. Today, we're seeing Bitcoin break above $50k while alts largely underperform. Bitcoin dominance is slowly curving up, as can be seen in the righthand chart. Most retail traders who have entered the market this year...
Although my last post was about why I plan to scale out of some crypto in the coming months, especially if prices continue to increase, this is just an example of how something can just keep going up. The market defies logic. If Bitcoin breaks above that log curve, it can go even to $400k. It's hard to imagine the level of FOMO this would require, and things feel...
There is currently a divide within speculative market analysis: Are we on the verge of total collapse due to over-leveraging and ballooning debt, or are overall market conditions actually improving over time, resulting in more long term sustainability? I think Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are going to be a huge factor in determining what's going to happen. A...
What's going on with weed stocks?? There are justifiable claims that some of these companies could still be overvalued. However, despite declining price, On-Balance Volume remains relatively high compared to what we saw during the last major downward swing between March 2019 and March 2020. This could signal accumulation. Additionally, the UO (ultimate oscillator...
This is just a quick update, since I don't have the time this week for something truly in-depth. Regardless of bearish news, this is still in line with what I was expecting for August - > September. In fact, I drew those faint yellow trajectories back in August. I did not think it would be easy for Bitcoin to break through the $46k+ resistance. Ironically, this is...
This is a sentiment analysis. No one can ever be absolutely certain what will happen to Bitcoin - there is the possibility of some new lows, so one should adjust risk appropriately. This is just about the patterns people tend to see, particularly when sentiment is low. And indeed, sentiment is rather low. The fear/greed index has slipped back into the "Extreme...
I don't post about stocks or ETF's very often. I got into investing via crypto - and my intention wasn't necessarily to make money either. I had lost faith in the current model of our banking system, and became inspired by what I saw as an alternative. That alternative also ended up being a good financial decision. Ironically (I say this because most investors and...
In this update, I talk about Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin dominance. I will post a follow-up with some more altcoins and a little bit more in-depth psychological analysis of what's going on in the market. This is not financial advice! This is meant for entertainment and speculative purposes only. -Victor Cobra
Here, I go a little more into the psychology behind recent Bitcoin price action, but I also talk about individual alts, such as NANO, QNT, UNI, SOL, NEO, XLM, and SLT. This is not financial advice! This is for entertainment and speculation only. Thank you for watching. -Victor Cobra
If you read my posts in full, you'll find that I find market psychology incredibly interesting. For a school project, I am considering putting together a paper on risk-taking and it's correlation with socio/economic policy and wealth inequality. For fun, here's an example of the kind of data I'd like to use. In this analysis, I present some historical data about...
It's been a little while since I've posted a written analysis on the market. I've been working on a lot of things, mostly related to the creative arts and social work (I'm still in my master's program). I appeared recently on my friend's podcast, so I'll be linking that in my status when it's ready. In any case, the last time I wrote about Litecoin, it was still...