If you read my posts in full, you'll find that I find market psychology incredibly interesting. For a school project, I am considering putting together a paper on risk-taking and it's correlation with socio/economic policy and wealth inequality. For fun, here's an example of the kind of data I'd like to use. In this analysis, I present some historical data about...
It's been a little while since I've posted a written analysis on the market. I've been working on a lot of things, mostly related to the creative arts and social work (I'm still in my master's program). I appeared recently on my friend's podcast, so I'll be linking that in my status when it's ready. In any case, the last time I wrote about Litecoin, it was still...
Many people already forget that Bitcoin spent weeks going up while Bitcoin dominance marched towards 73% in December. Bitcoin dominance tends to decline when Bitcoin itself has lost steam, not when it's trending hard. An exception might be the recent market bounce. This is of some concern, because when alts increase in value at this rate it's often unsustainable....
This is just a simple observation. Don't really have time to go too in-depth with this one, but this is a substantial deviation from the prior cycle. This time, it appears Ethereum and other altcoins are leading the market. This makes sense, since Ethereum has numerous applications and investment vehicles within its own ecosystem. Bubbles within bubbles. Even so,...
In this analysis, I talk about Bitcoin and the potential for a long squeeze while funding for Binance futures remains incredibly high. Currently, we're seeing the reverse of what happened when Bitcoin last dropped below $30k and bounced. Overall, if we get a shakeout or long squeeze, the crypto market indexes are incredibly bullish (though they include...
In this continuation, I talk more about the broader market, and include brief analysis for Ethereum, Cardano, NEO, XLM, UNI, and DOT. This is not financial advice! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. Thank you for watching. -Victor Cobra
This is a simple study, much like the one I published in early July, where I suggested buying Bitcoin as it approached a long term trend against SPX could be a good decision. Here's the post: In this analysis, I offer two additional comparisons. On the left is Bitcoin's performance versus Gold. Interestingly, Bitcoin has pulled away from the trendline and...
For a while, I've been looking at SPX versus M2 money supply. This is essentially a way of looking at the relationship between cash and assets. I've also been watching the U.S. Dollar index (DXY), and how it's reached a standstill - neither in a downtrend nor an uptrend. What happens next seems impossible to predict, but I think it's important to watch the SPX/M2...
It's very possible that I'll be proven correct in my analysis where I stated that the death cross may not matter so much this time around. Here is the original analysis, where I compared Bitcoin price to Amazon stock: The fact that Bitcoin has broken the 200 day MA (teal) is already a positive development. Just look at what happened after the death cross in...
I tend to shy away from making outright predictions, because I think TA should be used to understand risk, as well as cognitive bias. However, it's fun when you're right, and I was tasked with making a prediction as part of a friendly TradingView competition. Needless to say, this will be an "educated" guess, but it's really hard to know anything at all with coins...
I love these comparisons. Over two years ago, I compared the Ethereum chart with Amazon's dump and recovery after the dotcom bubble pop. That was when I was just getting started on here. This chart compares Bitcoin with AMZN, so you can observe the striking similarities in structure. Amazon is an interesting reference point, considering much of its astronomical...
About 6 weeks ago, I made a post anticipating where a bounce seemed likely to occur. This was based on the long term trends for the total cryptocurrency market cap, and the resistance level from January 2021, which was tested as support. The market is up over 30% since then, and the altcoin index (TOTAL2) is up over 40%. I also wrote an article about why I...
Hi everyone, in advance of starting a podcast, I'm still producing some video TA on here. In this video, I do Bitcoin price analysis and explain the sentiment and factors behind the recent short squeeze. I may do another video about my altcoins, but for now all eyes are on Bitcoin to (hopefully) lead the market out of the slump. As always, this is not financial...
In November, 2020, I wrote an analysis about how I thought Litecoin's major downtrend break could signal that some life would return to the cryptocurrency market. The call ended up being correct: A year before that, I wrote about why I thought the bottom could be in for the cryptocurrency market, but also why I didn't expect Litecoin to do much for a while:...
In the above chart, I've drawn attention to periods where BTC/USD volume on Coinbase declined to current levels. Even today, during this move below $30k, volume is fairly low. In this market, the most important thing is liquidity. When volume dries up like this, it's a lot harder for larger players to get the price they want (whether it's to buy or sell). I wrote...
With crypto, it can often be very unnerving and confusing as to where the market might move next. Currently, we have no idea which direction the next big move will take us. However, since Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market can be representative of people's belief in something over time, we can expect that as more people believe in its value, it...
This analysis begins with an observation about the relationship between NANO/BTC and BTC/USD. I also want to thank the TradingView team for featuring one of my recent posts on the front page - this was the first time, and I've been doing analysis for 3 years! In the rest of this video, I go into some Bitcoin price analysis, as well as some thoughts about the...
This is a very simple chart, showing the ratio of Bitcoin price to the S&P 500 index. Historically, purchasing Bitcoin instead of buying into SPX has been a good idea near this yellow trendline, even if it drops below briefly, as it did during the COVID crash. You can observe that the break of the yellow downtrend in 2020 resulted in a massive period of...