VictorCobra

Litecoin and the Cycle End Rally

Long
BITFINEX:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
It's been a little while since I've posted a written analysis on the market. I've been working on a lot of things, mostly related to the creative arts and social work (I'm still in my master's program). I appeared recently on my friend's podcast, so I'll be linking that in my status when it's ready.

In any case, the last time I wrote about Litecoin, it was still in the local downtrend. Since then, it's broken out and tested the important zone between $220 and $250. Here's the analysis:
If you read that post, you can also see where I had previously used Litecoin to gauge overall market upside potential and momentum. I also suggested that when Litecoin reaches a much higher level against Ethereum , that can be the sign of a market cycle peak. Since LTC tends to lag behind a little bit, the moments where it starts to show hidden signs of strength can be an interesting bellwether for the cryptocurrency market. Here's the LTC/ BTC chart, showing an unusual fulcrum bottom formation (something rather rare). There is potential for the ratio to head towards the long term downtrend, should the market cycle have a little gas left in the tank.
I'm using the Bitfinex chart for the USD pair because it has a longer price history for Litecoin. While the channel on my Coinbase chart (previous analysis) still exists here, it's interesting to speculate where Litecoin could end up, if we have yet to see the final leg of this current bullish cycle. We also don't know if "cycles" will necessarily play out the same way as before....but based on sentiment and how some newer projects keep hitting new all-time highs tells me this space still has a while to go before it fully matures. So it's fairly likely we'll see another large market crash and longer period of stagnation at some point in the not so distant future. The top posts on Reddit right now tell me a lot of people are taking their gains for granted, and euphoria is really palpable. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Litecoin lumber along with relatively low sentiment. This tells me it would be a wise move for me to sell the next market rally, particularly if Bitcoin breaks ATH . Targets are shown on my chart, showing that it could be quite profitable. Supports are outlined as well. On the bearish side, if Litecoin is to remain relevant at all it should not really go below $60 again.

The theory presented in this chart is that Litecoin will reach its top roughly when Bitcoin does the same (along with the rest of the market). It should be a good indication as to when we could see the next big downturn. I first bought LTC at $32 in early 2019, traded out of it in June of that year, and have re-accumulated a stack 4 times larger than I had before. For me, this is an experiment in portfolio management and cycle theory. I may continue to be wrong about Litecoin. However, the little chikun that could has gotten some positive news recently: smart contracts, stablecoins, and NFT's will be available on the Litecoin network. In addition to that, the MimbleWimble code should be ready by year's end, bringing the option of privacy, making Litecoin fungible (unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum ).

Let's see! This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.

-Victor Cobra





Comment: Well, what a bit of news to get this going! Wallmart is supposedly adding a "pay with Litecoin" option on October 1st. The source I got has yet to be verified, but if true, this is definitely unexpected. It seems that a bunch of good news about LTC is coming out at once ––- an indication of where we might be in the cycle :) Still needs to break that $220-250 resistance.
Comment: Well, that faded quickly. Extremely strong rejection from the resistance zone.
Comment: Lots of choppy behavior at the moment. Traders really getting it handed to them.
Comment: As I mentioned above, the source had yet to be verified. Unfortunately, the news seems like it could be fake. Will update with any further information.
Comment: If this was it for the "rally" we can see LTC declining to the lower trendline on my Coinbase chart, putting price back between $60-70. I hope this is not the case. The market will need to figure out how it really feels about today's developments. Breaking above the top trendline can send price to ATH.
Comment: At least the media seems to be spinning this as the fault of the media and fact-checking itself.
Comment: $146 is a pretty important level - the high from 2019. This bounce looks promising so far, on decent volume. As long as we don't get any terrible news, this can be the final shakeout before the last leg up for the market. We'll see.
Comment: Interestingly, LTC is closer to breaking out of its local downtrend than Bitcoin at the moment. Funding is pretty heavily negative as well, meaning there could be a short squeeze for Bitcoin's little cousin.
Comment: Bitcoin - not as close

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