VictorCobra

Litecoin To All-Time High (LTC)

Long
BITFINEX:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
Finally, it appears as though Litecoin wants to make an attempt at breaking the heavy $240-250 resistance zone . In my last analysis, I presented the possibility of hitting the top of the broadening wedge and the $250 level. It came just $2 shy. In the past, I've been pretty good on my Litecoin calls. Here's where I speculated that LTC could be a leading indicator for the beginning of a bull market:
Comparing price action in 2019 with the previous bear market bottom
An oldie but goodie:
December, 2019:

And more recently, calling the move towards $250 and outlining support levels (which were tested):
Now let's look at current price action.

Zoomed in, you can see that LTC could be priming for another test of the wedge resistance. Since it's a broadening formation (expanding volatility ), that target lies all the way up near $500. I've been watching this wedge for months.
If LTC breaks ABOVE the wedge , that could cause price to go parabolic towards its cycle peak. This is what I'm hoping will happen with many altcoins. Litecoin and some others (including XRP) are still substantially down from their ATH . But if Litecoin and XRP can head up further from here, and if Bitcoin dominance continues to decline, I think we can see some extraordinary final rallies for some cryptocurrencies. However, nothing says this WILL happen. For a bearish scenario, I'm watching the 100 day MA (yellow). If LTC breaks below there and fails to get back above, that could signal an abrupt end to the rally, and send prices back towards the ow $100's.

If we look at LTC/ BTC , it's currently testing the 200 day MA (teal). If it breaks above here, it should test the multi-year downtrend, currently between 0.0044 and 0.0045. If it finally breaks from there, it can head to 0.0067 and above quite quickly. Zoomed out:
I have been in an LTC/ETH trade, and was close to giving up on it, but I'll think I'll stick it out. Looks like a secondary test of the lower support. Here's LTC/ETH. I bought at the green X, and am hoping to take profit after a break of this long term downtrend. I'm curious to see how much upside actually exists on this pair. I'm looking at this as its own cycle, so I think there's a decent possibility LTC experiences a period of outperformance. Of course, I could be wrong. For example, it would be a bad sign if it can't reclaim the 100 day MA on this pair.
This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.

-Victor Cobra
Comment: Still having trouble breaking this resistance level. There's support at the 50 day MA (red) and the uptrend, near $194. If it can't hold, that may alter my bullish view. There's also a pretty amazing trendline (orange) that has at least 7 touches on the weekly. Zoomed in, you can see it was rejected from it once again.
Comment: As expected, here's the test of the downtrend for LTC/BTC. Good to see LTC stabilizing today above $250. Ideally, it needs t hold above into the weekly close, and I don't want to see it sustain back below $240.
Comment: On the daily, if it gets above this orange trendline, it should at least test the middle of the wedge, currently above $300.
Comment: So the $300+ target has been hit. If it breaks above the light blue trendline, it can target $700+ next, and the top of the broadening pattern. Could find some short term resistance as well. Funding continues to skyrocket for altcoins every time they make a move up.
Comment: Looks like short term resistance was found PERFECTLY at my trendline. Funding has finally reset. Perhaps the market can move sideways for a bit before heading up again. Don't really want to see sub $50k BTC prices for too long, if it happens. The lowest I'd expect LTC to drop and remain bullish is towards the light blue uptrend, currently near $200.
Comment: Looks like LTC dropped to the uptrend support near the $200 level. But we should be careful with expectations here. If it falls out of the uptrend, it can sell off violently towards the $140-150 zone. LTC has done a move like this during a bull market before. Hopefully it can consolidate without breaking the uptrend, but this is certainly a possibility. It was also unable to sustain a significant pump against Bitcoin.
Comment: The yellow is what we could see if Litecoin can't find support here. This is what I would expect if Bitcoin drops further towards the 9 month EMA, below $40k.
Comment: LTC got very close to the ATH target, but unfortunately the market decided to finally make a sizable drop. I bought some spot at $175 and $135, and may buy a little more if it ventures sub-$100. During these moments, I just have to let the market do its thing. As you can see, the broadening wedge broke to the downside. This was not what I was anticipating - but I was prepared, since I took out my initial risk from the market. Now I have some funds I can add on dips, but still want to be careful. Closing the weekly here looks truly awful though. Litecoin will need to double from here to look bullish again, in my opinion.
Comment: In 2017, LTC dropped from $98 to $33 (65% drop) before eventually making it to ATH. LTC has now dropped from $417 to $120ish, which is close to 70%, I believe. This is already worse, so it makes sense why people think the bull run is over. It may be. But I think I'll do better at least waiting to see where it finds resistance on a bounce, rather than capitulating and taking profit now.
Comment: Weekly looks bad, but it could end as a simple test of the 50w MA (red). The 50 already crossed above the 200. This drop is the test of resilience for crypto.
Comment: Bought more at $118.

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