Litecoin Shows The Way (LTC)

A while ago, I showed how Litecoin could simply flatline for a number of months while Bitcoin moved. This was based on the previous cycle. Here are those two posts:

And

Although the future seems somewhat grim for alts at the moment (see one of my most recent articles), Litecoin has an opportunity soon to break out and breathe some life back into what appears to be a dying market. Circled in light blue on this chart is where we might be, in the current cycle. Sure, LTC may not move with as much force as it did in 2017, but I think there's a decent chance it at least breaks the 2019 high (above $150).

First, of course, LTC has strong resistance at the 200w MA, near $70.

Something else to note: LTC/BTC is nearing the bottom of its long term demand zone (red). It has also tested the supply zone (green) numerous times, so I would be surprised if it was never tested again. It seems that altcoins like LTC and XRP fall to their demand zones as Bitcoin heads towards its all-time-high. As soon as BTC begins a new era of price discovery, these established altcoins can head to their supply zones against Bitcoin.

This is a LONG trade.

ENTRY: $61.95
Targets:
$80
$105
$150
$180

STOP LOSS: $58.50 (will be adjusted as price changes)

I may not take profit at all these targets, since I tend to re-assess as the market moves, but these are just where I think price could potentially go, if LTC were to break out here.

On the downside, If Bitcoin cannot hold at least above 14K here, I think LTC could fall back to some much lower prices and continue its sideways movement. Additionally, altcoins might simply lose their favor with traders, since futures allows an easier avenue for many people to multiply their profits without worrying about liquidity.

This is not financial advice! This is for personal use, speculation, and education only.

-Victor Cobra

Trade active

Comment:

Stop loss moved to above break even. I like to do this on my trades. Locking in at least some profit helps me make more rational decisions.

Comment:

Stop loss moved to take profit at $63.90. Already a substantial move. Let's see if it makes it to $80.

Comment:

Stop moved up again to lock in more profit. In the event that Bitcoin tops out soon, alts have the potential retrace much of their gains before moving up again.

Comment:

The stop loss was narrowly avoided, but I moved it up again. I don't really want to see a test of today's lows, if LTC is going to continue higher in the short term. Either way, this has been a winning trade. If I get stopped out, I'll be content. I raised my initial target to $86-87, due to the size of the first move and the subsequent retrace.

Comment:

First target reached. Waiting to close the first half of the long. Stop loss has been moved up again.

Trade closed: target reached:

Closed 50% here near $80.

Comment:

Planning to close another 25% near $87 and then let the remaining 25% ride until stop is hit or price goes towards $150 and beyond.

Trade closed manually:

Decided to close a little below resistance ($85.10). Majority of profit has already been taken, and now this trade has no risk. I will leave the remaining 25% until much higher prices and close manually, or until the new stop loss is hit at $80.

Trade active:

Stop loss was hit last night at $80. Re-entered the 25% position today in the $84 region. Still targeting $100+, but of course re-instated the stop loss.

Trade closed: stop reached:

I ended up letting go of the trade in profit - got stopped out during the chop. I forgot to update this. But ultimately LTC did break out above $100 as I originally anticipated with this idea.

Comment:

An update: I am now holding some spot LTC, due to losing patience with my long term XRP position. LTC/BTC seems a bit more primed for a reversal here, while XRP/BTC retraced the vast majority of its gains already.

Comment:

New analysis: