If below 2080 - Change Tack Confirmation. If above 2160 - confirmation the channel from 2013 is holding. (this was a linear chart which still has interesting information).
The Continuous red line shall not be broken in the next few months (whatever you throw at it). There is a very good probability that the doted red line will remain unbreached in close too (at ~2135/2138 in the next few days and 2165 on the 19th of Jun15). When looking at this map, the probability of fake breakout with an intermediary breather looks very possible.
Worst Case 1890 the 20th of July15. In any case, i think SP500 hits 1965 before the 20th of Aug15.
The path will matter. SPX can take the pain path upward - Possible. SPX can take the breather path down to 2040 before a sharp rebound. I would have thought that there had been enough pain as it is but this is really the "smart money contrarian" path as everyone speaking on cnbc calls for a correction. Key metric: monitor the dax, if above 10,750, the upward...
Still in the rail but complete and speed capped. Going to be derailed.
If manage to fall lower next week, 11,000 would be a fantastic buy 450pts down is just 2 days with this beast. The picture looked very different this morning when it was trading strong above 11600.
Give yourself until Tuesday to conclude. Monitor if the DAX decisively break above 11,700 in close 2 days in a row. Note: Fake breakouts occured in Jul14, Sep14, Dec14 before 4% breathers.
The question is: Does DAX reach 11,000. If it does it is a great buy for 9 key combined reasons: 1 trendline 2 125d ema 3 4 weeks down 4 5 waves down 5 speed limit 6 11% down 7 Oversold 8 ichimoku cloud 9 RSI oversold if reaches 30 or divergent on new bottom.
The linear chart highlights other supports: 2040 and 2000. I think SP500 is entering a period where small corrections will occur while putting cracks on the Bull structure to allow a larger correction next year.. The correction expected after June is not trivial as it will require SP500 to break 2040 and 2000 supports. The next 12 moonths may consist of a lot...
1) There is this channel starting early 2014 which i see very difficult to break to the upside. 2) we are still under wave 4 of the move since Oct14 and this wave 4 could fit a "d" move down. 3) most rallies since Mar09 lasted less than 6months except one. 4) most of these 6months rallies were smaller than 17%. here i see the possibility of an extension to 2155...
Fact: Over the last 15 months, the channel in the chart above is driving SP500. In high energy, there has been a few excesses above the top line (maximum 17days and maximum 1.6% above the line) Given the lower energy prevailing on SP500, i think the top line is not likely to be breached significantly Big picture: - This channel will be broken (sure thing) and...
Market back to top. Now: Mellow breakout or last dive down before rebound? If you want to buy (not my stance), I suggest not to tolerate closes below 2100 (21d ema). If you want to sell (my stance), you have 2 stops strategies: Tight (2127 on close) and strategic (2180 pain on close). Ultra tactical : short 2111 stop 2127 on close. tight but may work Note 1 :...
To be kept in mind > not trivial to go lower. Conversely > meaningful if goes lower. if the bottom is in place, that would mean sp500 may jump from here. The close Monday night may be important on both SP500 and DAX.
This is a very personal way to look at it but it may show something.
I have no clue if it breaks lower. My point is just to highlight the probable importance of the 175d ema.