Hit the trendline from the ATH today and closed the final gap from the April decline... Now looking at resistance from April top, the median line from the channel and peeking into overbought territory on the daily. Will probably make some kind of double top here so I'd at least wait for some kind of bearish divergence on the hourly chart before entering...
Referring again to my comparison of 2007-2008 vs now for the S&P and you can see we're still lock-step w/ price action from 2007. You know the market is not well when bad job reports leads to rallies. An interest rate cut isn't going to save us... and it's going to be a sell the news event even if they actually cut (which they won't). So basically if they're...
This thing's just begging for a retest of that median line... Watch for a headfake above the 200DMA tomorrow. If it does touch the neckline, might even be smart to grab an options straddle as you're basically guaranteed a 100pt move within a week.
XLNX has been my goto to gauge the health of semis. Looks to be in a handle/bear flag right now but has held up reasonably well in the past 2 weeks despite the market tanking... A break of 110 would be pretty bullish. But if it loses the 100 level it's sayonara until 87. MFI has been trending down tho so it's very likely that we're just about to start another leg...
Flirted with the 32DMA as expected at exactly gap fill at 285.60 and reversed hard. Hope everybody closed out their longs there. Check out the bearish cypher shown. A breakdown below 283 confirms the reversal and the .382 retrace at 281 is all but assured at that point. Futures looking sketchy so my guess right now would be a gap down to 283, followed by a...
Predictably bounced to the previously mentioned 278-280 area, but.... We just gapped over the 200DMA and breached the "sacred" level of 280... The problem is that this level has been more often than not a trap going the other direction. Notice how we did not close above the May 13 close of 280.86... If we can get a daily close above that level, then we're...
Bullish crab reversal zone starts at 274.40 and extends to 271. Note the convergence w/ the 0.5 TL from the schiff pitchfork Monday. Yes, it's a pretty wide range... NQ/QQQ has a much clearer convergence of reversal indicators/levels so I'd look there for signs of a reversal.
Seems like we're gonna get a bounce around 173... .382 retrace of rally from xmas lows H&S target @ 172.36 200DMA around 174 Bullish deep crab reversal zone starts at 173.16 Gap support at 172 Money flowing in on clear MFI divergence All FANGS sitting right above major support
I'm bearish the general market so I'd say short it over the 200DMA all the way up to the .382 retrace around 44.5 where all scalps should be dumped. A break of the large 4 year schiff TL means 36 is almost guaranteed.
It's only a buck in each direction, but the elliot wavers will see (1)(2)s setup in both directions and breaking either of these levels will invalidate the short term directional move respectively. Either way I see a bounce of some kind materializing in June w/ a corresponding fall in bonds. The 200DMA is good support, but here are some things that make me feel...
Too many things pointing to an imminent collapse in treasuries soonish... 1) Month end/start typically marks a peak/bottom, guess which one we're at right now... 2) Right at bearish shark reversal point, if it extends even higher, then we're at .618 retrace and end of H&S pattern 3) Equities reaching oversold on most timeframes ETA: Ignore the colors of the...
Now oversold on the weekly RSI which has only happened one time in this stock's history which resulted in a face-ripping rally. A nice little .382 retrace would suffice here for a 60pt win. Scalpers may wanna take profits at 202 but I think you hold this one until late July when earnings are due or until 178 breaks.
Nice stock to own during this china fiasco, but I think it's time to take some profits soon if you bought the healthscare dip. Sell the pop to the .618 extension at 283 and BTD at the convergence of the 50DMA and 50WMA around 270. If the stock can successfully retest 269 it validates the current rally as a motive wave while drawing a nice right shoulder to 293 and...
Same price action as March. No material exposure to china news. Strongest of the FANGs right now, still holding above the 50DMA. Should continue to consolidate for the next week. If the market continues to tank, it'll probably break the 50DMA and continue moving downwards in that falling wedge. If the market bounces, It'll break the schiff pitchfork TL (like it...
Everybody's stressing about whether 280 breaks. Who cares? The real support is $2 below it at 277.50 where the H&S target and 50WMA converge. Take a look at how many times it's bounced from this MA. If we gap down tomorrow into the sub 280s, I'd gladly buy at the 50WMA as I think that'll paint the low for the week and sell the .382 retrace to 284. Might have to...
Feels shitty holding puts since even the whisper of continued trade talks could trigger a massive short-covering rally, but there's no point in fighting the trend until that happens (or we hit 271). As always watch semis, NQ has been weak and FANGs have been subdued but that's not going to last forever especially considering china trade news has little bearing on...
H&S pattern suggests it's headed to the 1730s... but every time it's dipped below the 50DMA (which seems to be tracking the neckline right now) it's been a bear trap. If it does keep heading south I think you'll see a bounce at 1790 gap fill which lines up w/ its nov/dec 2018 tops, probably back to 1820. If it bounces, I'd gladly short it at the schiff upper TL.
another chip that looks primed for a bounce soon. Maybe one more lower low... but we should at the very least draw a right shoulder here. WIsh I held my shorts from 193 :)