Today, we'll take an in-depth look at Bitcoin and examine where we could be headed over the next few months. The chart before you is crystal clear: we are in the midst of a repeating cycle. Regardless of how bad the news may be, or how much global conflict or financial turmoil escalates, all that matters is the chart.
The chart speaks volumes: Bitcoin came back to the green zone in this model in precisely the same time as the last cycle: 364 days. Refer to this TA for more information on that:
So we hit the green zone, we've bounced out of it, hovering just above it, as we did in 2019. With last week's weekly close, we've broken the 0.25 Fibonacci fan, just as we did in 2019. So, unless we do something that changes the mirror fractal, we will continue to stick to the view that this relief rally is just getting started.
In 2019, it took us 56 days from the time we broke the 0.25 Fibonacci Fan to reach the relief rally top. If the same pattern holds, the week of April 10th, 2023, would signal the top, and we could go as high as $48k. Anywhere between $35-48k would be the topping zone.
Somewhere within this yellow circle, around this time, would be the perfect topping signal for Bitcoin. However, things never go as planned, so we could top out as early as $35k.
Why $35k? Well, the highest CME gap currently sits at $35k, with the 0.382 Fibonacci Fib. This is an area that I'll be paying close attention to because it's very possible that Bitcoin will close the gap and top out for the year at this level.
If we zoom into the daily in 2019, we can see that we created an ascending channel coming out of capitulation. We have done precisely the same thing this cycle so far, but we will go one step further here.
This chart shows the Pearson correlation coefficient, demonstrating decoupling from the SPX500 vs. Bitcoin. When we dig in, we see that, in fact, Bitcoin decouples from the stock around precisely the same time during this ascending channel in 2019. The negative correlation lasts for a significant chunk of the relief rally, as you can see. Very interesting.
Here we can see that during that period, the Dow Jones dropped 7.59%, while Bitcoin rallied 78%. It's essential to note that even though Bitcoin has become increasingly more correlated over the years as it matures, there are still pockets of the cycle where there is negative correlation.
Bitcoin has been performing consistently within the same bands as it did in 2019, a fact that remains true since the publication of the TA above from eight months ago. This post, published during the bear market, was met with skepticism and laughter from traders who claimed that the "MACRO ENVIRONMENT" would prevent the predicted outcome. However, the theory, vision, and analysis presented in the post remains valid and unchanged to this day. By removing the noise and emotions surrounding human behavior, we can stick to the chart and better predict market trends.
Mayer Multiple Bands
Bitcoin still playing within the same bands as 2019 perfectly .
Of course, there's always a possibility that I am wrong. What if we're not going to have a relief rally, and this is the top? The invalidation level is always present, and nothing is ever 100% guaranteed.
Looking at the fractal pattern that emerged during the 2015 bear market, we can see that history could repeat itself. While anything is possible, including a black swan event that could bring the market down in a week, I think the odds of this fractal pattern playing out are low, at around 10%.
In every cycle, Bitcoin puts in a "marco double bottom." Even in 2011, Bitcoin put in a double bottom. Having cash on hand for when those two bottoms hit is essential. I believe we have only had one bottom, and while some analyses bet on the FTX black swan being the second bottom, I disagree.
After the COVID crash in March 2020, I spent countless hours trying to predict when the next Bitcoin crash would occur. I was off by two weeks when I published my analysis in January 2022, but we did get the first cycle bottom around the end of May 2022.
The only constant pattern we have is that Bitcoin puts in the second double bottom before the next halving, which is scheduled for April 2024. The average length from the second double bottom to halving is 256 days, and according to my analysis, sometime between July 24th, 2022, and April 2024, we're likely to get Bitcoin's double bottom, which would bring the price down to at least test the first bottom lows at $15k.
My Bitcoin model predicted the pico bottom of the COVID crash in 2020, and if it follows the same pattern, the latest low band of the model will be retesting $15k is April 2024, which is the same month as the halving. Keep in mind that these are projected lines for this model, and if anyone is a coder who can add projected dash lines to the model, please DM me on TradingView.
Another possible outcome for the double bottom of Bitcoin could be a crash as early as July 2023.
As long as Bitcoin stays within this ascending channel, we have the potential to push much higher. However, if we break out of the channel and close below it on a daily timeframe, the chances of the 2015 fractal playing out become much higher.
The chart speaks volumes: Bitcoin came back to the green zone in this model in precisely the same time as the last cycle: 364 days. Refer to this TA for more information on that:
So we hit the green zone, we've bounced out of it, hovering just above it, as we did in 2019. With last week's weekly close, we've broken the 0.25 Fibonacci fan, just as we did in 2019. So, unless we do something that changes the mirror fractal, we will continue to stick to the view that this relief rally is just getting started.
In 2019, it took us 56 days from the time we broke the 0.25 Fibonacci Fan to reach the relief rally top. If the same pattern holds, the week of April 10th, 2023, would signal the top, and we could go as high as $48k. Anywhere between $35-48k would be the topping zone.
Why $35k? Well, the highest CME gap currently sits at $35k, with the 0.382 Fibonacci Fib. This is an area that I'll be paying close attention to because it's very possible that Bitcoin will close the gap and top out for the year at this level.
Mayer Multiple Bands
Of course, there's always a possibility that I am wrong. What if we're not going to have a relief rally, and this is the top? The invalidation level is always present, and nothing is ever 100% guaranteed.
In every cycle, Bitcoin puts in a "marco double bottom." Even in 2011, Bitcoin put in a double bottom. Having cash on hand for when those two bottoms hit is essential. I believe we have only had one bottom, and while some analyses bet on the FTX black swan being the second bottom, I disagree.
After the COVID crash in March 2020, I spent countless hours trying to predict when the next Bitcoin crash would occur. I was off by two weeks when I published my analysis in January 2022, but we did get the first cycle bottom around the end of May 2022.
Comment:
we will start to pepare for a major move once this channel is broken, until then no need to worry
Comment:
SPX is the only chart to watch at the moment
Comment:
bump on btc still vaild
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TA saids July 24th 2022 , this is a mistake