I thought it was time to make a longterm chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe.
They are wrong because bitcoins support and resistance lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart.
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025.
I am a bitcoin longterm bull, but one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles are the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally. Every time.
These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The very longterm goal of BTC, in 2030+, is at around 1 million USD imho. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
The next peaks should be at around 100k in 2022, and around 300k in 2026.
I hope this chart helps people understand the longterm growth dynamics of BTC :)
They are wrong because bitcoins support and resistance lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart.
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025.
I am a bitcoin longterm bull, but one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles are the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally. Every time.
These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The very longterm goal of BTC, in 2030+, is at around 1 million USD imho. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
The next peaks should be at around 100k in 2022, and around 300k in 2026.
I hope this chart helps people understand the longterm growth dynamics of BTC :)
Comment:
So, 5 months later it seems that we are still on track for that low in a few months. It could be as low as 2000, because that line is of course not very precise, the smallest deviation yields a few hundred USD above or below. But it can serve as a good orientation point when to start buying cheap coins :)
Comment:
It turns out that this prediction here has become way too conservative. Bitcoin started the bullmarket earlier than predicted.
I updated the longterm chart here:
But as we can see, even this might be too conservative. Crazy !
I updated the longterm chart here:
But as we can see, even this might be too conservative. Crazy !
Comment:
Apparently we're exactly where we should be. But: I think we'll reach 100k earlier than this chart suggests, already in 2021 instead of 2022.
Comment:
Now it will soon be decided if we reach the final ATH still in late 2021, or if the cycles will be lengthening, so ATH in late 2022.
The above chart is not really correct any more, this one here uses the correct regression trend:
In all my latest analyses I am using that one. The upper channel currently sits at 130k USD and rising, in late 2022 we are looking at 250k.
The above chart is not really correct any more, this one here uses the correct regression trend:
In all my latest analyses I am using that one. The upper channel currently sits at 130k USD and rising, in late 2022 we are looking at 250k.
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Update: I have become very skeptical of these longterm logarithmic growth models. Bitcoin's performance in the last cycle was worse than even the lower bound estimates, and I am unsure if we will just continue with the 4 year cycle.
We saw that Bitcoin is super heavily correlated on the stock market, so if there is a stock bullmarket, awesome, then bitcoin performs well, but if there is a stock bearmarket, the performance is abysmal.
It is not the anti-inflation hedge that it was said to be, and is instead treated like any other risk asset.
So we should prepare in our minds, that the 4 year cycle and longterm growth models might fail at some point. It is a possibility that we should take seriously.
We saw that Bitcoin is super heavily correlated on the stock market, so if there is a stock bullmarket, awesome, then bitcoin performs well, but if there is a stock bearmarket, the performance is abysmal.
It is not the anti-inflation hedge that it was said to be, and is instead treated like any other risk asset.
So we should prepare in our minds, that the 4 year cycle and longterm growth models might fail at some point. It is a possibility that we should take seriously.