i do believe we're nearing the end of this wave (a), and we will soon begin wave (b) - nicknamed the suckers rally. newer investors who attempt to play with leveraged longs will probably not sell in time and create a nice liquidation event on the way down. most people develop some sort of emotional attachment to their trades and get stuck to a single outcome. the markets moves both ways, and we can make money in either direction with the proper setups. i've been catching high leverage short swings these last couple of weeks, and have accumulated quite a bit of fun money that i am willing to risk on this wave b.
i think wave b is going to be a parabolic move and will catch so many people off guard once it reverses \ has a parabolic move down. markets will go from mass euphoria to mass despair in a matter of days, and that is when we become buyers for the real run to 125k. i have outlined my overall bias on the history of bitcoin in this post:
i am not sure what will happen once we tag that final fifth, but i sure as heck am selling all of my longs from the low 20's once we get to the psychological level of 100k. i know that i am looking pretty far ahead into the future, but historically bitcoin has been the most algorithmic asset in all of the lands, and tends to tag every single algo target near perfectly.
i don't know anything about fundamentals, all i know is the charts - so thought i'd put it out there. a lot of people are expecting btc to go straight up to a million, so i am here to say that it's not going to go straight up as most expect, since the markets move in phases.
stay educated, stay well, and trade safe you beautiful people.
If I may, there are 3 slight alterations to my interpretation of the map:
1) I don't see us breaking the 28.8k low on the next retracement, but rather hitting a slightly higher low and creating a Wyckoff spring before the markup phase. What we saw the last time at 30.15 was a sneaky front-run of the real spring located just beneath it. I am however more open to your interpretation now as you've mentioned that important algo level at 27.2k I believe? I will be weighing both options and perhaps longing 29-29.5k just in case, with a tight stop loss in case a lower low gets breached and can then wait for 27.2.
2) My initial thought was we would not get higher than 45k on the B wave. After doing some calculations I kept raising my targets. Then I read somewhere that there is an open CME gap at about 49k? Of course if we are breaking ath again we may not have to fill that gap on the first try; either way we won't get much higher than that the first time we test that level without a major correction which makes that whole range such a great spot to open a short even if we don't catch the top exactly.
3) I have doubts in regards to the height of Wave 5. I don't think there's any way we are getting past 100k due to the logarithmic resistance curve. Although I'd have to find a way to apply and measure the curve, since we got rejected at 65k in April even if we wait a full year to top out again in the middle of 2022, does that take us all the way to 125k? I'm definitely open to a higher top target but the .272 extension at 81.5k seems like a modest peak that would catch most people unawares, as once we get there we would be expecting to at least get closer to 100k. The low 90s may actually be the best spot to form the top actually, due to the psychological expectation of 100k at that point.
So this wave 5 was either a truncation, or we haven't hit it yet. That target ranges between 27.7~27.2 as an average from about 10 different charts. I would be layering in my bids between 26~28 as we could see a nice liquidation/scam wick that goes just beneath this zone, as I reckon many people would have their stops in this area.
Thanks for the heads up regarding that CME gap, I haven't dabbled into the futures charts too much, but now I have incentive to do so - to see if the area I am eyeing is in confluence with that gap.
The upside wave 5 algo target is actually between 125~140, which is a pretty broad range for a top. Giving the fact that wave 5's could sometimes truncate (just as we saw on that last move within that ending diagonal in the 60's); I have stated that I will be exiting all of my long positions once we reach that psychological 100k level, and will patiently await for a sign of weakness for the short of the century.
Ps. This too came to me in my sleep, maybe the universe was trying to send us a message regarding our early retirement 💸