How high can this thing go? Hint: Very high.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
It's funny to see the reaction of people, staring in total disbelief at the prices. Why?
Because they do not think in exponential terms. The human brain is just used to think in linear terms, exponential rises take a lot getting used to.

But bitcoin? It was rising exponentially for a while, and now it entered over-exponential territory.
This means that in the logarithmic chart we don't have a line any more, but a parabola.

That is why the time for a doubling of the price will get shorter and shorter.

I drew the logarithmic trend channel and these are the possible reversal zones:

1. st at around 25K

2nd at around 75K

3rd at around 145K

If the full move is done, we could see, and I now it sounds insane, 145K until the end of march 2018.

I think 25K is the most realistic scenario, with about 60% probability. Timeframe: December-January

75K with 30% (timeframe: end of february), and 145K with 10%. It's just an estimate, but it's good to know these important resistance lines.
Where do you see it now?
Great looking chart and thanks for the insights! What charting site or software did you use to draw the channels for this chart? Thanks!
I thought you were crazy :) (just kidding) a few weeks ago, but i knew you were up to something :). Thats why i had put you on my follow list. A lot of respect for your predictions!! I still do think those prices above 50K and higher are still insane, but time will tell ofcourse :) What has happened the last 2 days is already beyond what i thought was possible, so...
I knew it was going to hit a number MUCH higher when a few months back it was like EVERYONE was predicting ~10k would be "the top". At that point I knew that would be just the beginning.
$2 Trillion in new money in four months? I’ll take what you’re smoking.
@bmgbmg, Hehe. You make a classical mistake: The market cap is not a really important number in crypto. For bitcoin to get from 10 billion market cap to where it is now (190 billion usd at the time of writing), it was not necessary for 180 billion usd to enter the bitcoin market. Why? Because only a fraction of the coins are tradeable on the exchanges. This means that far less capital is needed in order to drive prices up much higher than we would expect. The scarcity of the coins on the exchanges is key.
+3 Reply
Very nice, the analysis lacks a unicorn fitting to the rainbow chart and tbh the growth youre forecasting is a little slow-paced ... think again
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