Mikhiavelli

BTCUSD Weekly Inflection point

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Mikhiavelli Updated   
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
What I have here are a bunch of momentum channels piled on each other on the keltner channel oscillator. (weekly light blue, daily green, 3hr light purple) I didn't bother hiding lines from the diff time frames, which helps put into perspective each zone in accordance to the keltner channel TF price is in. IE on the weekly we're above the KC Mid Line. Same with each TF all the way to the 1 Hour where we're consolidating. A shift on the 1 hour makes for a potential shift on the 3 hour, and judging by our position in the relative channels on the various time frames I expect consolidation on the 3 hour with the potential to consolidate on the daily and weekly.

This is what I call an inflection point.

Weekly:

Daily:

3 Hour:

Here is a previous chart with a daily inflection point:

Which direction it goes on the inflection point is a guess, unless watching every timeframe to see the inflection points on the lower TF's develope in real time. Momentum shifts mark a point where momentum consolidates; from which it could break out or break down.

When I start to see shifts on the smaller time frames, they tend to consolidate, and push thier final peaks of emotion (price peaks) until the larger time frames develope a shift and consolidates as well.

My first chart uses a weekly inflection point/momentum shift and the keltner channel to determine that price would drop to 20k from 60k...

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Daily:
See the daily channel we're in (green) we're at the top of the channel which I used the bottom line to create. If you look at the larger daily chart above, you can see how on the oscillator price makes a lower peak as mometum dies, but on the chart price has moved significantly higher. At some point price on the chart correlates with the price bar movements on the oscillator, a divergence... So daily has gone through this momentum consolidating cycle several times, creating a weekly divergence.
The weekly is creating a new downward channel so if this all plays out on the 3 hour, then instead of a break out, there will be a breakdown, a correction. This is the formation of the potential correction.

3 Hour:

So I expect price to follow this channel down, with a few exceptions, color coded, price will likely consolidate in the boxed area, while the daily will show the area of breakdown or breakout (the mid KC line/keltner channel)

If price ranges in the daily/weekly KC channel, and pulls it downward, then the weekly correction comes into play, as the daily correction will either result in 1 more leg before a larger correction, or is an abc/123 B wave leg of a larger ABC correction from 69k which then may go to 10-11k if C ends below A.

1 Hour:

Here the 1 hour is at a critical point for this to play out, if it breaks below the KC mid line, and stays below it, then the less likely it is for another breakout leg to form; signifying the emotional price peak before selling becomes dominate and price reverses trend.

Otherwise we're winding up for another significant leg up to 58-59k.
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1 Hour Update
Still consolidating on the 1 hour, but may approach 50k before reversing back down and continuing consolidation.
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Early, but adjusted

Significant momentum on the smaller timeframes from that move, so likely to move higher before consolidating on the 1 hour, but doesn't rule out the larger timeframes.
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unadjusted for reference
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1 hour is starting to consolidate, watching for any break outs when we get close to the mid KC line
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3 Hour: if we break 49.5 and hold below 50k, then the 3 hour will start to consolidate.
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Still haven't started consolidating on the 3 hour, but the 1 hour looks like it's breaking down below the mid KC line (20 ema)
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3 hour is near an inflection point
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1 hour - the 3 hour is starting to consolidate, there maybe a bounce and a leg up, however if not, then after some consolidation, I'll check the daily to see if it starts consolidating.
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The 3 hour fell out of the purple channel, and may start a bearish leg, after consolidating.
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Daily

We need to break below 47k to begin daily consolidation and hold in that range, breakdown further to confirm large consolidation phase.
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3 hour update: here's a couple potential paths from an inflection point.

If we get another breakout leg, the height of which will determine if it's the beginning of a larger move upward, or mometum continuing to die down.

I'd like to see price fall and stay below the 3 hour keltner channel mid line.

Right now it could potentially just be consolidating before another move upward.
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1 Hour Update

Bitcoin popped up and was immediately rejected, so if the downward momentum starts with a breakdown in this area, then 3 hour consolidation will mean a larger move downward as we define a new range somewhere between here and 47k- further breakdown suggest daily breakdown opening up new targets... time will tell.
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3 hour:
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3 Hour:

Not a whole lot has been happening, waiting to see if we go ahead and breakdown out of the daily channel here:
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So far it seems that way.
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Adjusted the weekly channel (moved the line, used same angle)
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So we never got to consolidate on the daily. Price broke out from the 3 hour consolidation and nearly hit 58k as predicted on feb 11th.

Monthly and weekly momentum shifts are still in play assuming we don't gain any more momentum.

Bitcoin will once again grind upwards, now with the halving coming up, however the end of march and april may bring about new conflicts, market issues, and may thwart the bullish sentiment.
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So here I posted the 3 hr and the daily, on the 3hr we're starting to consolidate, we could consolidate sideways for up to 2 weeks then attempt another leg up, I would project 72-74k if successful, 77k and 88k if for some reason there is lots of emotion tied to price.

Else, I think we're still at a potential reversing point for a major correction. The market as a whole may correct, else gold and silver will take off. So I expect a major event in the last weeks of march or the first week of april.
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see previous comment

1hr and daily

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We hit 74k as expected, now we're really starting to consolidate, the consolidation I wanted earlier, but things never really go the way you want them, they do what they're going to do.


Here we have 1hr momentum shift, and also on the 15 minute, this marks the last leg up, which may make a new high or get rejected.

After this there will be consolidation, and then potentially after the market "event" a massive crash.
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We need another breakout, to avoid breaking down. Daily consolidation, weekly consolidation cycle potential.

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Daily chart:

The question begs, just what is going to happen april 8th? grid collapse? quakes?

May the rays of light illuminate the darkness.
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Speculating...

Maybe a massive sell off in bonds coming next 7 days; perhaps sparked by a banking crisis.

I think yields will approach 6% on the 10yr fairly soon.
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🦢🦢🦢☢☢☢
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""After this there will be consolidation, and then potentially after the market "event" a massive crash.""
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feb 27th "Bitcoin will once again grind upwards, now with the halving coming up, however the end of march and april may bring about new conflicts, market issues, and may thwart the bullish sentiment."
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mar 7th "Else, I think we're still at a potential reversing point for a major correction. The market as a whole may correct, else gold and silver will take off. So I expect a major event in the last weeks of march or the first week of april."
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weekly channel in blue, green is daily

1w
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1d
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1m
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Tally-ho!
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Theres been a lot of interesting occurances, there is a short supply of transformers and a large region of sunspots creating the largest solar storm in 20 years

There has been an escalation of the ongoing conflicts in the ME with countries retaliating and attacking a US ally for escalating the conflict there.

There was a contatiner ship the destroyed am important strategic port in the US

There are multiple ongoing economic problems caused by all these events and more, and leading up to these events. I think it's all apart of a multifacted war- as war goes beyond a battlefield these days.

There will be continued escalations and problems as time goes on.
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For the record...