Mikhiavelli

BTCUSD - Potential Daily Inflection Point

Short
Mikhiavelli Updated   
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
This probably still needs time but we're approaching an inflection point, it may take another month or two to wind up, so I'll have to watch. Bitcoin has been popping up in it's low liquidity enviroment, and the MM is likely net short due to the influx of buyers. Since the market needs sellers, it's possible MM will push price down to get some liquidity.

On the 1 hour, DXY is playing it's usual games, and bitcoin is hitting a momentum shift; looks like another short squeeze without any follow through.


As DXY pushed up, bitcoin gets hammered back down.

I made some trend lines on the keltner channel that gives me the momentum shift signals.
Here is an earlier SS from last night:

Current Daily:

So I expect the resistance on the daily and dxy to push bitcoin back down into breakdown territory.

If not then it could be a major breakout.
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Price had found a local top, and is going to retest the keltner channel mid line, from which it could breakout or breakdown.
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After a break to 35k everyone is in bullmode. Personally I have a feeling that this will end up coming right back to 28k, and consolidating, maybe it will spike higher, perhaps it will start dropping and increasing volatility right away.


either way, there are more surprises around the corner.
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daily
oct 2nd and oct 22nd marked
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we didn't hit the daily keltner channel mid line, but more agressively bounced off the 3 hour. (1 hour)
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😮😲😰😨😱
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Alright, momentum finally shifted back downward, and the move is correcting. Will take a while to see if it will go back up or straight down, If bond yields rise and dxy rises, then the correction should hold and commodities and bitcoin breakdown.

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As per my dec 11th analysis the fed ended up being dovish; while the next meeting is 18 days away and there is a 95% chance that rates will not change.
The dovish fed led to yields dropping since dec update and bitcoin traded up front running the etf release. Since there has been a correction, I expect some weekly consolidation so after a drop to 38k, bitcoin might take a few more runs up before correcting significantly in march thanks to a "big surprize" to the world, and economies- PM markets, ect. Maybe everything will correct harshly at once. Whatever the case I will be watching march 23-25th and early april just in case a black swan appears.