VictorCobra
Long

There's No Looking Back! (Bitcoin)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Okay, in my last post I was a little bit over-dramatic in saying that there never was a bear market. I was only half joking. Of course, decreasing by over 80% during the last couple of years would qualify as a bear market. HOWEVER, my point is that the selloff that took Bitcoin out of its bullish channel (light blue) really could have just been a momentary blip. A lot of people have said that this was an inorganic dump, caused by the hash war. Whatever the reason, so many people accumulated in the 6K-7K area prior to the dump that we just sliced straight through it recently on our way up. THAT was the accumulation area. This is the reason 6K didn't really provide much resistance. Perhaps the selloff was really an anomaly, and the "natural" bottom was in the $6K area. If you look at the double bubble from 2013, that retrace to $6K is in line with the retrace that happened there, prior to the second bubble. I actually thought we'd launch from $6K earlier because of this.

As far as I can tell, I'm one of the few people on here that actually presented $8K+ prices as a possibility in the near term, when Bitcoin was still in the $3K zone. I also suggested that breaking back into the light blue channel could happen. Just check out this analysis:

Specifically this section, written on February 12th:
"Bulls have shown increasing strength, so we might be in for a powerful move up now. I've actually been eyeing 8K-9K as a potential reversal target (you can see this in my Bitcoin long setup). This is assuming ETH makes a MAJOR breakout here and the whole market turns extremely bullish . Below is why 8K is a POTENTIAL target. We are more likely to get stopped at the lower blue line in the mid 5K's. These are the best case scenarios, as I see it. We could always stop lower and head back to retest 3.2K, as we did in the previous bear market."


As you can see, that yellow scenario has now played out perfectly, which was the most bullish projection I had. We now have a couple of parallel channels. The bottom channel provided support in the 3K area, while the top channel is the one we just broke back into once 6.8K was surpassed. This gives Bitcoin some room to fall to the low $7K area if it's going to make a correction now. It also means that there's not much support until $5K-5.2K if that breaks.

Interestingly enough, these trendlines can't be drawn the same way on the BLX chart. Instead, we're still below our broken support level (orange). It would be interesting to see if Bitcoin finds resistance on the resistances on this chart, or if it continues to follow the bullish projection I have on the Bitstamp chart above.
BLX chart:
Zoomed in, with previous scenarios (drawn back in mid-Feb)

Taking both these charts into account, it's clear that Bitcoin is still on its long term uptrend. Where the next target is anyone's guess...but the buying strength recently is simply people wanting to get in as soon as possible before it really takes off. Since Bitcoin has followed my most bullish possible scenario since my posts near the bottom, I might as well give the most bullish possible scenario for the upcoming months. The top resistance (drawn between the previous two bull market peaks, in pink) is currently above $60,000. Not only that, but that price could actually be reached before the end of this year. I know, it's insane. But Bitcoin has gone through a double bubble cycle before. There's no reason why it can't do it again. And the thing is...no one is expecting this to happen. Additionally, the weekly RSI and Ultimate Oscillator are not quite at the major resistance levels that have indicated at least a short term top in the past.

Remember, this does not have to play out. This is purely speculation based on what I'm seeing. To me, TA is mostly visual (I'm an artist). This does not account for potential black swan events, so I could be wrong. More conservatively, we can follow something similar to any of the other scenarios I've outlined on my main chart (blue and pink). This would mean a correction if Bitcoin hits between $10-11K back towards the $7K zone. There are bearish possibilities too, but I won't be looking at those until the market shows signs of weakening...which is currently not the case.

By the way, I'm obviously not always right. Linked below is a bearish idea I did post about Bitcoin recently when it had just gotten above $6K. I gave reasons for risk there, but also why buying there might have been a great idea. Of course, if I had actually shorted Bitcoin at $6K, I'd be totally wrecked right now. Instead, I had faith and held on. The majority of my analyses have been pretty spot on though, so far. This is naturally not financial advice. You do what you want with your money. I do this for my own validation and for educational purposes.


-Victor Cobra
Comment: Wow, so as I said in this post - in order to keep the most bullish possible view of the market, we'd need to stay above the light blue trendline. We just had a crazy fake move below the trendline (likely a stop hunt). It's possible we drift down again to retest it (low 7000's or high 6000's), but it's also possible that we will just resume the uptrend from here. If that line breaks decisively, we would probably be in for a bigger correction:
Comment: I would say this next weekly candle needs to close above the trendline in order to suggest further upside:
Comment: If Bitcoin can't hold here, we're looking at one of my more conservative scenarios (like the blue, for instance). I also outlined a similar scenario in yellow on this analysis:
Comment: The trendline is currently around 6830-40 on Bitstamp:
Comment: Interesting that we're not seeing alts drop much on their ratios right now.
Comment: So far it's holding. Really unbelievable how bullish the market has been recently. If we're going to follow my extreme bullish scenario, we've likely already corrected the maximum amount, for now.
Comment: Nice rebound from the recent selloff. As I said, one shouldn't necessarily expect prices to go lower. Trading off assumptions like that can diminish your portfolio value in the long term. Anyway, someone pointed out to me that I can also draw a resistance line from the earlier 2013 peak (around $200). If drawn this way, it becomes perfectly parallel with our bottom channels. This would give a THEORETICAL top at or above $100K (later this summer at the EARLIEST).

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