the upside at some point, and then BTC will bore us to death by rising very slowly upwards, towards a maximum of 4600.
It wants to rise slowly, so that the weekly is nicely overbought at 80-100, and the weekly also rises a bit again, after having been very low.
This is of course all in preparation for an epic dump. If we take the magnitude of the last dump, which went without any major bounces from 6500 to 3200, we could easily go from 4600 to 2000, maybe even lower for a very short time.
I am just not buying into the "probability for bitcoin bottom has greatly increased" narrative, some traders are suddenly proclaiming, just because BTC is pumping a bit.
Reasons why 3200 has NOT been the bottom:
1. Daily transactions are still below ATH , the bearmarket historically only ended when daily transactions were at least 20% above the previous ATH
2. We are still very far away from the halving in mid 2020
3. I think stocks will see another sell wave this year, and since wallstreet is now actively involved in BTC , they will just treat BTC as any other asset, and also sell BTC
4. The sentiment is still far too optimistic imho . Just look at all the people who everytime think that we have reached the bottom. Normally, we have the bottom when
there is absolute despair, and even hardcore BTC fans become doubts, and everyone has brutal panic, and a feeling of hopelessness is everywhere, THEN we'll have the bottom.
5. The cycle time gets longer every cycle. It is illogical to think that this bitcoin cycle is exactly as long as the last one. The cycle time increases every cycle, which makes
absolute sense, since BTC is gaining more mass
6. The MAs that provided support, increased in number, every bearmarket. In 2012 it was the MA100. In 2014/15 it was the MA200. It is logical to assume that it now will be
the MA300 that provides solid support.
Well, these are my reasons to remain calm and not euphoric about the recent rise.
I'll patiently wait to re-enter BTC , but this point will certainly be reached sometime this year, probably in the next 2-4 months.
I am long till mid 4000s, then opening shorts when we near the log resistance.
I really don't like the high long short ratio on Bitfinex, don't like it at all !
This increases the dump probability imho. I don't think we'll see a pump under these conditions, and if yes, then only a fake pump in order to dump afterwards.
A long squeeze is likely to happen.
Well, I won't complain, as this would make my initial theory valid again: that we'll go to 4500, and then the final drop of this bearmarket.
If it goes through, we'll hit exactly the target as drawn 1 1/2 months ago.
2. Bitcoin is anti-correlated to stocks, and bitcoin could even benefit from a recession, when all that liquidity from stocks comes pouring into safe haven assets like bitcoin.
The fact is: We don't have enough data. Sometimes bitcoin is strongly correlated to stocks, I've witnessed it often, it sometimes followed the SP500 like clockwork. But other times absolutely not. And there never has been the case that btc was around in a recession. I am always torn between 1 and 2, but the truth is, I don't know, as does no one. We'll have to find out ourselves when the next recession hits.
Thank you for sharing your insight! Good stuff! ;)