The Beast! - Resting may be coming to an end
Well Well Well, Oil is back in the 60's with a threat of dipping it's toes in the 50's pool. This is a time where there is uncertainty in the market and everyone is panicking. If you add all of the news plays, one could go mad trying to catch every twist and turn Oil takes people on.
anyway, What are we looking at? We are seeing Oil at the lowest point it has been since 2021. Its funny how that happens when the same war that helped push it up to above $100 is still going on.
This is why we have to play the news rather than the other way around.
So we are currently looking at long scalps and are holding some longs from 64.75. We however know very well, as mentioned multiple times in the past that 61-62.7 region is the real support there as it bounced off of that zone 3 times in 2021,with the last bounce becoming a full blown Bull run to $129/$130 in March of 2022. Below that we have $60 and of course $57 from March 2021. This therefore means that no one should really be super blindly bullish just yet. Oil is never obliged to do anything so it does not necessarily need to go to those levels but there are some Vector Candles don there that have liquidity in the from previous years. The most recent of the 2021 Green Vector Candles from December 2021 to be recovered was the one from 12122021 at $64.44. The next significant Green Vector Candle to recover is at $62.35 which means if the current lows are broken then Price is heading that way.
BEARISH VIEW
The only reason that Oil should remain Bearish is to go and take out levels from prior years or to do a Covid type crash. The levels we are looking at as destinations for this year long sell are as follows:
$63.8, $62.8, $62.5, $62, $61.8, $60.8. $59.8, $57.8, $55
And some of the levels we are looking to re-short down to these levels at if we get a good bounce or range are as follows: $69.5, $70, $70.5, $70.8, $71.7, $72, $72.5, $73.3
BULLISH VIEW
The main reason we have become bullish is that since coming below the 50 EMA on the Weekly TF,we have now had 3 big Red Vector candles to the downside. This is what appears as the hits in the lower TFs. Through Hours of Back testing, when this happens there tends to be a run after that. The same applies for Greens in the other direction. What else:
(1) The Weekly is approaching over sold on the Stoch RSI
(2) On the Fibonacci Retracement tool We have made contact with 50% ($65.30) (Lo 0, Hi 130), on the higher Tfs. (61.8% at $49.92)
(3) Demand and Supply- Simply, Price is lower than it has been for awhile an People Dollar cost average into positions for longer term moves. We will see new all time high in Oil in the next 2 years. Or at least a retest of the current one.
(4) Inflation is everywhere and this means price of goods will increase and Oil is an essential commodity for way too many reasons.
There are definitely more reasons but this is getting a bit long
Be careful as the Bearish targets have not all been hit yet, but a long to $70-$72 looks quite safe to execute, even if it test/retests $66-$62 area before doing it
This is not Financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of Salt!
Good Luck
anyway, What are we looking at? We are seeing Oil at the lowest point it has been since 2021. Its funny how that happens when the same war that helped push it up to above $100 is still going on.
This is why we have to play the news rather than the other way around.
So we are currently looking at long scalps and are holding some longs from 64.75. We however know very well, as mentioned multiple times in the past that 61-62.7 region is the real support there as it bounced off of that zone 3 times in 2021,with the last bounce becoming a full blown Bull run to $129/$130 in March of 2022. Below that we have $60 and of course $57 from March 2021. This therefore means that no one should really be super blindly bullish just yet. Oil is never obliged to do anything so it does not necessarily need to go to those levels but there are some Vector Candles don there that have liquidity in the from previous years. The most recent of the 2021 Green Vector Candles from December 2021 to be recovered was the one from 12122021 at $64.44. The next significant Green Vector Candle to recover is at $62.35 which means if the current lows are broken then Price is heading that way.
BEARISH VIEW
The only reason that Oil should remain Bearish is to go and take out levels from prior years or to do a Covid type crash. The levels we are looking at as destinations for this year long sell are as follows:
$63.8, $62.8, $62.5, $62, $61.8, $60.8. $59.8, $57.8, $55
And some of the levels we are looking to re-short down to these levels at if we get a good bounce or range are as follows: $69.5, $70, $70.5, $70.8, $71.7, $72, $72.5, $73.3
BULLISH VIEW
The main reason we have become bullish is that since coming below the 50 EMA on the Weekly TF,we have now had 3 big Red Vector candles to the downside. This is what appears as the hits in the lower TFs. Through Hours of Back testing, when this happens there tends to be a run after that. The same applies for Greens in the other direction. What else:
(1) The Weekly is approaching over sold on the Stoch RSI
(2) On the Fibonacci Retracement tool We have made contact with 50% ($65.30) (Lo 0, Hi 130), on the higher Tfs. (61.8% at $49.92)
(3) Demand and Supply- Simply, Price is lower than it has been for awhile an People Dollar cost average into positions for longer term moves. We will see new all time high in Oil in the next 2 years. Or at least a retest of the current one.
(4) Inflation is everywhere and this means price of goods will increase and Oil is an essential commodity for way too many reasons.
There are definitely more reasons but this is getting a bit long
Be careful as the Bearish targets have not all been hit yet, but a long to $70-$72 looks quite safe to execute, even if it test/retests $66-$62 area before doing it
This is not Financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of Salt!
Good Luck
